On August 5, 2009, a U.S. drone attack on a militant safe haven in Pakistan's tribal district of South Waziristan killed several militants; Baitullah Mehsud, Emir of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, or the Movement of Pakistani Taliban), was reported to be one of them.
At first, the Taliban denied that he had been killed, saying that he was safe but ill. Then, the Pakistani government claimed that Baitullah Mehsud's two aides Hakimullah Mehsud and Waliur Rahman, or at least one of them, had been killed in a fight for succession. Later, the Taliban said that Baitullah Mehsud had succumbed to wounds he sustained in the August 5 attack.
The Taliban's claims and the Pakistani government's counterclaims about the killing of Baitullah Mehsud and about his likely successors have continued over the past few weeks. However, recently TTP's Deputy Emir Maulana Faqir Muhammad claimed that Hakimullah Mehsud has been appointed the new Emir of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Despite this, speculation remains rife that Hakimullah Mehsud has in fact died and that he is being impersonated by someone else.
In a recent article, senior Pakistani journalist and noted Taliban affairs expert Rahimullah Yusufzai looked at the turn of the events surrounding the reported killing of Baitullah Mehsud. Following are some excerpts from the article, as published originally in English by the leading Pakistani daily The News: [1]
"The Pakistani Taliban Have More Or Less Conceded That Their Leader Baitullah Mahsud is Dead"
"Through their desperate actions in recent days, the Pakistani Taliban have more or less conceded that their leader Baitullah Mahsud is dead.
"The surprise announcement of the installation of Hakimullah Mahsud as the new head of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, made by TTP deputy leader Maulana Faqir Muhammad on Saturday [August 22, 2009], is indirect admission of the fact that Baitullah is no more, even though he reiterated his claim that Baitullah is ill, not dead.
"Waliur Rahman, stated to be another claimant to the position of TTP head, also contributed to the uncertainty regarding Baitullah's fate through his reported statement on Saturday [August 22, 2009] that a new leader would be chosen within five days. Like other TTP commanders, he too insisted that Baitullah was alive. But Baitullah had already been sick with diabetes and related diseases for some time; and according to Waliur Rahman, the ailing TTP head had given him full control of the network. If Baitullah was still alive and the interim arrangements made by him to run the TTP with Waliur Rahman at the helm of affairs was working fine, there should be no need to chose a new leader.
"Since August 5, 2009, when the U.S. drones fired missiles at the house of Baitullah's father-in-law Ikramuddin in Zangara village in South Waziristan and killed the TTP chief and his wife, the Taliban have consistently denied his death. But they have failed to provide evidence that Baitullah was alive despite promising the media that an audio or videotape of their leader was on the way.
"Though the Pakistani government too has been unable to provide any supporting evidence to prove that Baitullah is dead, there are strong indications that the founder of the TTP and its head since December 2007 was taken out in that drone attack. The government lacks access in that part of South Waziristan, which is now under the control of Baitullah's men and its major sources of information are informers and spies, communication intercepts and intelligence provided to it by the Americans. Now that U.S. President Barack Obama has also pronounced Baitullah dead in the drone attack that he said was carried out with Pakistan's cooperation, it should be clear that the U.S. government and its intelligence agencies were convinced about Baitullah's death. The U.S. president would not venture to make such a claim if there was any doubt about Baitullah's elimination in that right-on-target missile strike."
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"The TTP's Reaction to the August 5 Drone Attack Has Been Disconcerting"
"The TTP's reaction to the August 5 drone attack has been disconcerting. Initially, the death of Baitullah's wife, whom he had wed only last October, was denied. After a while it was conceded that the young woman, Baitullah's second wife, who had been a religious student, had died in the attack. Regarding Baitullah, it was claimed that he did visit his father-in-law's house but left before the missile strike. Reports about his funeral and burial… were refuted.
"Finally, Taliban commanders started conceding that he was ill and, therefore, unable to run the TTP. Nobody said that he was critically ill, though that is what was meant, because only someone with a serious illness would be unable to record a message for the media to show that he was alive. That is the TTP position until now and one doesn't know when Baitullah's death will be formally conceded.
"Meanwhile, circumstantial evidence had started emerging with regard to Baitullah's assassination in the drone attack. His driver Qasim's body was delivered to his family, which was summoned to [tribal district of] Orakzai Agency for the purpose. The burial took place near Lundkhwar village in Mardan district [of North West Frontier Province] and the media promptly quoted his family as saying that he was killed in the Aug 5 drone attack in South Waziristan. But a couple of days later, his brothers and relatives held a press conference to clarify that Qasim was executed by the Taliban on spying charges.
"It turned out that the Taliban had threatened the family with dire consequences if it didn't clarify the situation and refute its earlier claim that Qasim was killed in the drone attack. The Taliban denied having threatened the family and stressed that Baitullah never kept a regular driver. But if it is true that Qasim was executed [by Taliban] on spying charges, then it is possible that he was suspected of involvement in directing U.S. drone attacks on Taliban targets, including the one targeting Baitullah."
"Subsequent Reports About the Taliban's Decision to Detain Baitullah's [Relatives] and to Interrogate Them About Their Role in the Happenings on August 5 Also Raised Eyebrows"
"Subsequent reports about the Taliban's decision to detain Baitullah's father-in-law Ikramuddin, his son Ziauddin, brother Saeedullah and nephew and son-in-law Iqbal Mahsud and interrogate them about their role in the happenings on August 5 also raised eyebrows. The Taliban didn't make the arrests public, and issued no denial when Pakistani Interior Minister Rahman Malik claimed on Sunday [August 23] that all of them have now been killed on charges of spying for the U.S. forces in Afghanistan.
"There are credible reports that the arrests did take place soon after the drone strike because the Taliban became suspicious that Ikramuddin's close family members survived the attack that targeted his house. Pakistani government officials and intelligence agencies are convinced that Ikramuddin and seven of his close family members, including the three mentioned above, have all been executed. If the Taliban indeed went to the extent of killing eight people, all Baitullah's in-laws, it should be taken as another piece of evidence that the TTP head is dead and his followers are now busy hunting down anyone suspected of involvement in facilitating the fatal U.S. drone strike on the night of Aug 5.
"Despite being sometimes on target, not every claim being made by Interior Minister Rahman Malik and the secret agencies about the tussle for TTP leadership following Baitullah's death could be believed. The contention that Hakimullah Mahsud was killed in a shootout during a TTP Shura [executive council] meeting held to decide Baitullah's successor and his rival Waliur Rahman was wounded has already been adequately refuted. Both Hakimullah and Waliur Rahman phoned reporters who are familiar with their voices to show that they were alive and to claim that there was neither a Shura meeting nor a firing incident. A Pakistani reporter subsequently met with Waliur Rahman, who is Baitullah's cousin, in person in a jungle near Makeen in South Waziristan and managed to interview the TTP commander who was 'looking healthy and dressed in clean, ironed clothes.'"
"Even Now Government Officials and Intelligence Agents Are Of The View That [Hakimullah] is Dead and That the Man Impersonating Him is His Lookalike Cousin"
"Regarding Hakimullah, even now government officials and intelligence agents are of the view that he is dead and that the man impersonating him is his lookalike cousin who was summoned from Afghanistan to take over his job. One has to look at such bizarre situations in utter disbelief. Either the Taliban are capable of manipulating things in such smart ways, or our intelligence agencies are good at cooking up plots that at times appear unbelievable.
"Maulana Faqir Muhammad's somersault too was strange and an indication of the disarray in TTP ranks. One day he declares himself as the acting Emir, or head, of the TTP in his capacity as deputy leader of the banned militant organization and appoints Muslim Khan, the Taliban spokesman [for Swat district], as his spokesman. Two days later he announces that Hakimullah is the new TTP leader and Azam Tariq is the spokesman. He also tells the world that 42 TTP Shura members and commanders attended the meeting that chose Hakimullah as the new leader. Strangely enough, no statement to this effect has been issued by Hakimullah and Azam Tariq until now. Waliur Rahman and other top TTP commanders from South Waziristan, Kurram Agency, Swat district, and other areas don't attend the meeting and it soon becomes clear that this may not be a unanimous decision."
"It is Obvious That Certain TTP Commanders are Positioning to Take Over Baitullah's Place - Even If It Is One of the Most Dangerous Jobs in the World"
"The situation will remain uncertain and confused until the TTP formally announces Baitullah's death. The acts reportedly being carried out to avenge his death continue. Also, the succession struggle has to be resolved and a unanimous decision taken to appoint the new TTP leader before Baitullah's death could be finally conceded.
"Or it is possible that the Taliban commanders would not do any such thing and keep their detractors guessing. Whatever they decide and whenever they make up their mind, it is obvious that certain TTP commanders are positioning to take over Baitullah's place, even if it is one of the most dangerous jobs in the world."
Endnote:
[1] The News (Pakistan), August 25, 2009. The article has been slightly edited for clarity.
