February 2, 2024 Special Dispatch No. 11114

Russian Outlet On Possible Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan: 'War Seems To Be Inevitable... Will Taiwan Repeat The Fate Of Ukraine?'

February 2, 2024
Russia, China | Special Dispatch No. 11114

The website of Russian TV channel Tsargrad TV published on January 28, 2024, an article titled "Taiwan Will Be Washed Away By 'Korean Nuclear Tsunami': Kim Jong Un Will Fight For China"[1] discussing the ways in which a Chinese invasion of Taiwan might unfold and how the relations between China, Taiwan, and NATO resemble those between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO. The article describes Chinese incursions on Taiwan and the planned Taiwanese establishment of military bases on the country's east coast and purchase of American weapons. It also describes a super weapon alleged to have been developed by North Korea, with Russia reportedly having developed a similar weapon: "An underwater drone, the Haeil-5-23, capable of carrying a nuclear charge, which, once detonated, could cause a radioactive tsunami, and thus, in case of emergency, 'wash away' not only Taiwan but also Japan... And if it hits, for example, the east coast of the United States, there will be a huge tsunami, which will sweep away coastal cities. Besides, it will be radioactive: after it, it will be impossible to live for more than a century on the whole territory, where the water reached."

North Korean underwater nuclear drone could reportedly trigger a massive radioactive tsunami.

Following is a translation of the article.

"War Seems To Be Inevitable... Will Taiwan Repeat The Fate Of Ukraine?"

"Taiwan's former Chief of the General Staff, Lee Hsi-ming, urged the island's authorities to learn more quickly from Ukraine's experience and prepare for war. Namely, to speed up the transition from 'large' projects of combat aircraft and ships to drones and mobile air defense systems. At the same time, Taiwan's Defense Ministry sees six Chinese balloons and four airplanes over the island, and four Chinese ships far from the coast. And then there's North Korea showing up with a nuclear-powered submersible that can carry a nuclear torpedo with a power of up to two megatons. War seems to be inevitable.

"Taiwan's strategy is known: to hold out until American aid arrives if China invades. If they, of course, agree to lay their heads on the block for the island, which the UN recognizes as part of China. For now, Beijing intends to annex Taiwan peacefully. But according to polls, the majority of the island's population considers themselves Taiwanese, not Chinese. This is a kind of 'political Taiwanism,' reminiscent of 'political Ukrainism,' which for Ukraine ended in war. Will Taiwan repeat the fate of Ukraine?"

"A Naval Blockade Of The Islands Is Likely"

"So, both peaceful and military ways out of the situation are possible. As we know the Americans, we can be sure that the Japanese and South Koreans will be suitable for the role of cannon fodder, while the Yanks will launch bombs from a safe distance from behind their backs, as they have been doing for many years.

"'A hot phase of the conflict is possible. But China needs Taiwan as an economic and technological cluster, and given the very dense urban development on the island, war and destruction would be catastrophic. Therefore, a naval blockade of the islands is likely. To cause internal processes and change of moods there,' says military expert Konstantin Sivkov.

"But we should not consider Taiwan an innocent sheep that the Chinese wolf dreams of devouring. Taipei is not just arming itself, but is purposefully preparing for war: The Ministry of National Defense has approved plans to establish two military bases on the east coast of the island by April 2026 to deploy anti-ship missiles Hsiung Feng II (range — up to 200 km) and Hsiung Feng III (range — up to 400 km), and they also plan to buy American 'Harpoon'; by the end of 2025, two more missile bases in Jinliujie and Su'ao will be put into operation.

"Is it necessary to say against whose ships all this is being prepared? And against whom the Americans are building their 'Pacific NATO' with the participation of Japan and South Korea."

"In The Same Way The West Prepared Ukraine All Eight Years After 'Minsk', Pumping It With Weapons And Training Personnel"

"And here unpleasant analogies come to mind: in the same way the West prepared Ukraine all eight years after 'Minsk', pumping it with weapons and training personnel. And only the SMO [Special Military Operation] prevented the realization of these plans. Will the 'battle for Taiwan' turn into a big war with unpredictable consequences?

"'China's appetite is much bigger: to solve domestic problems and fight for the role of hegemon, Beijing needs the whole of Mainland Southeast Asia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and then access to the Persian Gulf through Pakistan. Then it may come to the destruction of economic competitors — South Korea and Japan. But this movement toward expansion will begin in 2025-2026,' says geostrategy expert Andrey Shkolnikov.

"However, forcing the conflict is favorable for the US. Especially since they will fight by the hands of local 'Ukrainians': Taiwanese, South Koreans, and Japanese. The United States has accumulated vast experience in provocations.

"Of course, the People's Republic of China sees and takes all this into account, but it is not their style to rush in and shoot from the hip. Beijing has clearly declared its position: on January 14 in Egypt, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi reiterated that Taiwan is an integral part of China and is not and will not become a separate state. But at the same time, as military expert Alexander Artamonov noted, the Chinese, following Confucian logic, always take long-term actions: 'Today their fleet is the first in the world in terms of tonnage, a cruiser is built every two months, they have more dock landing ships (LSDs) than anyone else, and they plan to have 12 aircraft carriers like the United States, but only half of the US ones are sailing. Meanwhile, the Chinese have a fourth one under construction. Therefore, time is working for China: step by step it is pushing the US away from its sources of resources — Africa and the Middle East. And sooner or later Taiwan will be offered the status of Hong Kong and a 'special way', and it will agree.'

"Moreover, in case of war, China has such a serious proxy ally as North Korea at its side.

"One should not fail to take North Korea seriously: its submarine fleet is among the 'top five' countries in the world, it has excellent artillery and MLRS, ballistic missiles that can reach the United States, and nuclear warheads. But that's not all."

"The DPRK Had Tested An Underwater Drone... Capable Of Carrying A Nuclear Charge, Which, Once Detonated, Could Cause A Radioactive Tsunami, And... 'Wash Away' Not Only Taiwan But Also Japan"

"Last March, Korean Central News Agency, citing the Ministry of Defence, reported that in response to military exercises by South Korea, the US and Japan near North Korea's borders, the DPRK had tested an underwater drone, the Haeil-5-23, capable of carrying a nuclear charge, which, once detonated, could cause a radioactive tsunami, and thus, in case of emergency, 'wash away' not only Taiwan but also Japan. And somehow it does not seem that Comrade Kim is joking.

"Russia has already announced that it has a 'superweapon' against the United States and Great Britain — the Poseidon nuclear underwater drone, whose task is to cause unacceptable damage to coastal territories. This device is equipped with a nuclear propulsion system and carries a nuclear torpedo with a power of up to two megatons!"

"If It Hits, For Example, The East Coast Of The United States, There Will Be A Huge Tsunami, Which Will Sweep Away Coastal Cities"

"It moves underwater at a depth of about a kilometer at a speed of 130 miles per hour. And if it hits, for example, the east coast of the United States, there will be a huge tsunami, which will sweep away coastal cities. Besides, it will be radioactive: It will thereafter be impossible to live on the whole territory where the water reached for more than a century.

"By the way, a conceptually similar system of washing away coastal cities was proposed once by our famous 'humanist' academician Sakharov before he had become a dissident. However, our naval admirals ('not humanists') rejected this project then, considering it too cruel... And now, according to some reports, they have returned to it now. They have even built a couple of submarines carrying this 'apocalypse weapon.' However, a number of Western media still claim that in reality there is no 'Poseidon' and that the Russians are just scaring everyone. But they also said that once about 'hypersonic' that it was all 'Russian cartoons'. But lo and behold...

"And now – pay attention! Every now and then there is information that the same 'hypersonic,' the production of which has not yet been set up either by the U.S. or Israel, suddenly appears first in Iran, and then in North Korea. Where did it come from? They created it themselves, of course. And any hints about Russia are as vile slander as the information about Iran supplying us with drones and DPRK supplying us with ammunition and missiles.

"Therefore, one cannot exclude the possibility that Comrade Kim has his own Korean Poseidon, especially since both Taiwan and Japan are not far from Korea, so it will not be necessary to deliver anything across the thirty seas. Let them think.

"The main lethal weapon of the DPRK is Comrade Kim himself, a leader who is extremely resolute and does not intend to bow to anyone. I remember that under Trump in 2017, a U.S. carrier strike group with the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Carl Vinson moved to Korea to scare 'Red Kim.'

"The only DPRK missile carrier came out and warned: 'If you do not leave, we will hit you!' 'But then we will just destroy you!' threatened the Yanks. 'So what?' Kim replied. 'Then we won't care anymore!' And the American armada got the hell out."

"No Matter How The Situation Around Taiwan Develops, The Very Mention Of 'Ukraine's Experience' By The Taiwanese Military Sounds Ominous"

"No matter how the situation around Taiwan develops, the very mention of 'Ukraine's experience' by the Taiwanese military sounds ominous. You have to dislike your homeland very much if you want to turn it into a 'second Ukraine.' For the 'experience of Ukraine' teaches one how not to act.

"One should not cultivate hatred toward a fellow nation under the banner of 'political Taiwanism' [analog of 'political Ukrainianism'].

"One should not create dangers to it and then go to war against it, trusting in the help of the West.

"You should not play the lowly role of cannon fodder used by the U.S., burying your own people in the ground and accumulating debts for 'help' that will not be repaid for the next few generations of your citizens.

"We say all this quite sincerely, because we, Russians, even will benefit from the war around Taiwan: the West will have less money and weapons for Ukraine. But we still feel sorry for people, even strangers. That's what we Russians are like."


[1], January 28, 2024.

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