Russia Reluctant To Abandon Minsk Agreements, Momentum Behind Recognition Of DPR And LPR Breakaway Regions Stalls

Gennady Zyuganov the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Russia called for protecting the unrecognized republics of Donbass –The Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic –and the best way to extend such protection was via recognizing their independence. "It's necessary to help defend the DPR and LPR to the extent possible." The CPRF leader noted that he has long advocated such recognition so "this interminable violence and killings can stop...We will recognize them, and everything will be in order," said Zyuganov.[1] The Communist proposal backed by other factions would take the form of an appeal to President Vladimir Putin on recognition. Zyuganov claimed that this proposal represented the consensus of all the parties in the Duma, and the proposal would be submitted to the Duma Council of February 14, 2022.

However, the momentum reported earlier[2] in favor of recognition appears to have stalled and the main legislative player the United Russia party now seems to be digging in its heels. United Russia [UR] deputy, Konstantin Zatulin, First Deputy Chair of State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots denied Zyuganov's claim that a consensus had been reached in the Russian State Duma on recognizing the LPR and DPR: "I don't know anything about this. If Gennady Zyuganov claims that all factions are ready to support the appeal that he and his comrades filed to the State Duma Council, that is on his conscience. Personally, I do not know anything about the fact that we have to support or not support [the initiative]. We agreed that we will deliberate on the issue in February. It won't happen before February 14, because until then the Duma deputies are visiting the regions."

Zatulin now observed that UR believes that recognition of the breakaway territories may actually be a disservice to both Russia and the "republics" themselves, "I'm well aware of the stance of [Sergei Lavrov] our foreign minister, who is one of the UR party's leaders. He doesn't support the idea of DPR's and LPR's unilateral recognition. In turn, I personally believe that their unilateral recognition would be a disservice not only to Russia, but also to the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, as it would immediately inflame the situation and maybe provoke a reaction (which might be not limited to propaganda). [Recognition] would mean derailment of the Minsk agreements," said Zatulin.[3]

Konstantin Zatulin (Source: Interaffairs.ru)

The Minsk Agreements (or Protocol) that Zatulin refers to was signed under the gun of Russian military intervention in Donbass in 2014 that mauled a then rag tag Ukrainian Army and was drafted by France and Germany. The agreement has never been implemented. The agreements that Ukraine believes were signed under duress fatally cripple Ukrainian sovereignty by creating two autonomous pro-Russian entities, whose authorities are beyond the reach of Kiev's control but retain a veto power over Ukraine's foreign policy. Any Ukrainian leader implementing the accords would be committing political suicide. Dmitry Drize Kommersant's "political observer" reckons that we are at an impasse because Moscow refuses to forego the obvious benefits of the Minsk agreements. There will be no "recognition" of the Donbass republics, nor will the West exert sufficient pressure on Ukraine to swallow the Minsk Agreements.

Drize's commentary follows below:[4]

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"The appeal to President Vladimir Putin, with the request not to abandon the DPR-LPR will be considered by the Duma on February 14, if the coronavirus does not prevent it. It could happen, but this is the sole hurdle. Gennady Zyuganov, the athe initiative's author, stated that he and his colleagues had a full consensus, as all factions were agreed that support should be provided to the unrecognized republics of Donbass. The following is a quote from Gennady Andreiyevich [Zyuganov's] statement, "We recognize the will of the citizens of these two republics to live their own lives, protect their homes, their jobs, their language, and their opportunities."

"It should be highlighted that "support" doesn't mean legally recognizing the republics as independent states. "Support" is an overly broad term. Therefore, it is fair to say that this initiative is nothing more than political PR.

"Hence the Kremlin's most lukewarm reaction, "Turn to the Duma, it's not our issue. Well, this is a correct statement, but only partially. The DPR-LPR shouldn't be recognized because the Minsk agreements, as the Kremlin sees them, are much more beneficial. And now there is another chance [for Moscow] to convince the Western partners to exert pressure on Kiev in order to prompt the latter to honor the said Minsk agreements. Then, one could talk about a huge win for the Russian authorities.

"Moscow will receive a legal opportunity to influence Ukrainian politics, while Ukraine will get a major headache in the form of an entire pro-Russian region within the country's borders. In this case, regarding the such a painful issue as NATO membership will be closed, as part of the country will always oppose it. What's more the social welfare of the DPR-LPR residents, as well as the restoration of their ruined economies also falls upon Ukraine. Theoretically, this is the way it should be.

"Whereas, provided the Kiev authorities will officially withdraw from these agreements, Russia may well return to the issue of recognition of an independent Donbass. After all, we 'do not abandon our own,' as evidenced by the State Duma's unanimous support for the aforementioned appeal to the president. Interestingly, the West fully supports the Minsk agreements.

"In such a situation, it's very difficult to remain optimistic and hope that the so-called "Ukrainian settlement" can somehow be removed from a deadlock. Although, it could be done. Primarily because Russia, too, is not very comfortable existing under sanctions at the background of growing increasing global isolation. There is common sense and a simple calculation behind the oft repeated phrase. " War, even a simmering one, is bad for business. And the further it spreads, the worse it gets."

Dmitry Drize (Source: Kommersant.ru)