Above: Pakistani religious leaders address a January 30, 2011 public rally to defend Pakistan's controversial blasphemy laws. (Image courtesy: Roznama Ummat)
On January 31, 2011, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said that the situation in Pakistan cannot be compared with popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. Speaking in the town of Multan, he claimed that Pakistani "institutions are working and democracy is functional" while the economy in Pakistan is also doing well.[1]
Prime Minister Gilani noted that as a dividend of democracy, even government ministers are being questioned by the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) in various cases, something that would not be possible under a dictatorial regime.
He added: "Our foreign exchange reserves are at an unprecedented high level of $17 billion. The stock exchange index that was oscillating between 5,000 to 6,500 points when we took over is now touching 12,500 points. Our exports have reached $11 billion and may double by the end of this fiscal year, and foreign remittances are over $10 billion."[2]
The following are two editorials and two analytical reports from Pakistani newspapers, examining the history of people's movements in Pakistan and implications of the mass anti-government uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt for Pakistan.
Editorial in The Times: "Talk of Revolution"
"There is No Unity or Cohesion Among the Disparate Political and 'Religious' Groupings Here [in Pakistan]"
In a February 1, 2011 editorial, titled "Talk of Revolution," The News daily wrote: "With revolution in process across parts of the Arab world, talk of a similar set of events to those currently convulsing Egypt and Tunisia occurring in Pakistan has surfaced. Over the last weekend the leader of the MQM [Muttahida Qaumi Movement party], speaking from London, once again raised the 'revolutionary' flag, calling on security forces to join a 'revolution' as has already begun to happen in Egypt and in Lahore a march against any revision of the blasphemy laws saw the 'R' word get an airing as well.
"Although both events [one organized by MQM and the other organized by religious parties in favor of blasphemy laws] were well-attended by supporters of the respective causes, there was no sense that these meetings were in any way 'revolutionary' as they are in Cairo and Alexandria and Suez. There is no unity or cohesion among the disparate political and 'religious' groupings here. Unity of purpose is the catalyst and driving force in Egypt and Tunisia…
"There is a burning hunger for change among the people of Pakistan too. Unsurprisingly, Prime Minister Gilani, like the rest of his government, has failed to see this. Speaking to the media in Multan, he asserted that institutions and democracy are working well in the country. He has also argued that while the national economy is under pressure it is not in crisis.
"There are many who would beg to differ with this rather rosy depiction. It is true, on paper at least, that Pakistan is a democracy when compared to the autocratic governments in Tunisia and Egypt. But for people this has only limited relevance when many of the elements that are feeding revolt elsewhere are present here."
"Dynastic Politics Have Ossified Our Political Systems, Locked Them into a Self-Serving and Self-Regenerating Circus"
"Dynastic politics [led by the family of Benazir Bhutto] has ossified our political systems, locked them into a self-serving and self-regenerating circus. Corruption has galloped across the land like the fifth horseman of the Apocalypse and now sits in every corner of daily life for all of us. Inflation and unemployment are as dominant a feature of life here as they are in the troubled towns of Egypt. Poverty is everywhere, the physical poverty of joblessness and homelessness, and the poverty of thought and deed that could provide a template for us to move out of this corrosive circle.
"Taken together it might be assumed that these are sufficient reason to rise up against this – or any similar – government. Yet what seems to be lacking at the moment is spontaneity, a self-generated sense of anger that spreads across social classes and political or religious groups and translates into action. Instead we have the ersatz 'revolt' whipped up by charismatics with no other agenda but their own advancement, and the advancement of those who can be persuaded to be like-minded. These are the 'bused in' revolutionaries, the rent-a-crowd which can be assembled any time any place in Pakistan.
"But inspiration and ideas do arise from events such those taking place in Egypt and Tunisia. The street action in Tunisia had a direct impact on what happened in Egypt. Until there develops the same unity of purpose and the same willingness to march under the banner of one cause, revolution is not on the agenda.
"A descent into anarchy, however, is entirely possible. Pakistan's leaders need to be wary. But they should also look at what is wrong. Institutions are not functioning as smoothly as the PM claims and the economy is in a shambles – and we see everywhere people in great despair. Their plight needs to be eased if the talk of revolution – or the very real possibility of anarchy – is to fade away."
Editorial in The Daily Times: "Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan"
"It is Notoriously Difficult to Predict When the Patience of the Masses will Run Out and They will Revolt Against Their Oppressors"
On February 1, 2011, the Daily Times newspaper wrote, in an editorial titled "Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan": "Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has tried to counter the political rhetoric that Pakistan could face a Tunisia and Egypt-like situation if the government does not pull up its socks by saying that the country has a functioning democracy and strong institutions. The leader of coalition partner MQM, Altaf Hussain, in his address to a rally for national solidarity in Karachi on Sunday [January 30], once again raised the slogan of revolution with reference to Egypt and Tunisia.
"In a press conference the same day, leaders of the newly formed Muttahida Muslim League urged the government to mend its ways or be ready to face the wrath of the people. Tunisia and Egypt have been heaving under the yoke of decades-long dictatorships, and saw a spontaneous outpouring of public anger sparked by a small incident in Tunisia, which eventually forced Zine El Abidine to flee to Saudi Arabia. Soon after the flight of Ben Ali, the virus of popular revolt travelled to other parts of the Arab world, where the masses are rising and protesting against autocratic regimes. The way the protests broke out and spread to Jordan, Algeria, and even to Yemen, is intriguing.
"It is notoriously difficult to predict when the patience of the masses will run out and they will revolt against their oppressors. There are moments in history when a combination of factors, sentiments and circumstances triggered such events, which can, as seen in Tunisia and particularly Egypt, lead to a situation of dual power and change of the old order. At such junctures, the amorphous voice of the people not being led by any one party or organization surprises all the political forces, because the people are ahead of their traditional leaders…"
"[T]here is Lava Bubbling Under the Surface Here [in Pakistan] Too, Due to the Failure of Successive Regimes to Ensure the Provision of Even the Basic Necessities of Life to the Larger Segment of Society"
"Although the historical trajectory in Tunisia and Egypt, which led to a popular revolt, is very different from that of Pakistan, nevertheless, there is lava bubbling under the surface here too due to the failure of successive regimes to ensure the provision of even the basic necessities of life to the larger segment of society. Pakistan's history of incompetent democratic regimes and dictatorial military governments has left the people with few choices. A rudderless, directionless people who reposed their trust in democratic governments have been disappointed so far. Therefore, the raw material for a revolt is very much there. Can an ostensibly democratic government prevent that lava of resentment and anger from erupting?
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"One should in any case be cautious in dismissing the possibility of a movement of the people in Pakistan. However, there is another dimension to the situation here, which could be the cause of great concern. After four decades of nurturing of jihadis and extremists, any popular revolt will be at risk of being hijacked by extremist forces, who have recently rallied together on the issue of the blasphemy laws and are not in a mood to arrest the momentum of their campaign against the government.
"In these circumstances, the people of Pakistan have the sorry option between an inept and corrupt political leadership and the entire spectrum of right-wing forces from center-right to extreme right. The decline of the liberal, democratic and progressive community is at the heart of this crisis. Unless these forces strengthen their cadre, induct fresh blood into their ranks and mount a challenge to the extremists, Pakistan has little hope of salvation."
Analysis in Roznama Jang: "Predictions That the Wave of Revolution in the Arab Countries Could Reach Pakistan"
"Four Governments in Pakistan Have Ended Due to People's Rage and Fury"
In an analytical report titled "Predictions That the Wave of Revolution in the Arab Countries Could Reach Pakistan" and published February 3, 2011 in the Urdu-language daily Roznama Jang, journalist Sabir Shah wrote:
"Many intellectuals are terming the regime change in Tunisia and Egypt as a revolution, and are predicting that the waves of these Arab revolutions will soon reach Pakistan.
"Refreshing their memory about the history of Pakistan, these intellectuals say that the four previous governments in Pakistan have ended due to people's rage and fury. Deriving the result from the causes behind the end of those governments, they say that it is necessary to understand the differences in the causes behind the change of these governments and the likelihood of revolution.
"Undoubtedly, the French Revolution of 1789, the Russian Revolution of 1917, the Islamic Revolution of Iran in 1979, the Peasant Revolt of 1911 in China and the Cuban Revolution of 1959 witnessed very intricate situations.
"Every revolution requires many decades to strengthen people's ideological foundations and to prepare people to get ready for giving sacrifices in order to effect total change. In other words, for a complete change to take place in the system, volcanoes do not erupt suddenly."
"The Movement Against the Qadianis [Ahmadi Muslims]… Ended Ultimately After the Intervention of the Pakistan Army [in 1953]"
"Now let us examine the people's protests which became the cause of change of governments in Pakistan: for example, the contradiction that came in the Muslim League during the period of second Prime Minister Khwaja Nazimuddin; the ever increasing gulf between the Bengali- and Punjabi-speaking groups during the linguistic movement; and the demonstrations of February 21, 1952 which suddenly took a bloody turn, and many lives were lost in the indiscriminate shooting by police.
"Prime Minister Nazimuddin was successful in saving his government, but a chain of protests against him began, and the movement against the Qadianis [Ahmadi Muslims] that started in Lahore became the cause of the dissolution of his government at the hands of Governor General Ghulam Mohammad. Nazimuddin refused to quit, leading then-Governor General Ghulam Mohammad to invoke his special powers, entrusted under the Indian Act of 1935, and to dismiss his government, which gave birth to a new, dangerous trend.
"At that time the Chief Justice of Federal Court (later called the Supreme Court) Mohammad Muneer supported the Governor General and stressed the need to hold fresh elections.
"The movement against the Qadianis not only started pressing for the dismissal Qadianis from important government posts but also called for declaring them non-Muslims. The riots of Lahore in February 1953 began when cases of looting and killing of Qadianis in large numbers in the city were registered. These riots ended ultimately after the intervention of the Pakistan Army.
"To control the chaos in the city, the Governor General assigned the Lahore administration to Lieutenant-General Azam Khan and martial law was ordered in Lahore on March 6, 1953. Maulana Maududi [founder of Jamaat-e-Islami] and Maulana Sattar Khan were arrested and death sentences were issued against them, though the death sentence was taken back later."
"The People of Pakistan Took To the Streets for the Second Time in 1968, When the Country was Under the Military Rule of General Ayub Khan; Bangladesh was Formed Within a Short Span of Two Years"
"The people of Pakistan took to streets for the second time in 1968 when the country was under the military rule of General Ayub Khan, who had taken the control of the government by dismissing General Sikandar Mirza on October 27, 1958. In 1965, General Ayub had contested presidential elections against Fatima Jinnah, the sister of Qaid-e-Azam [Great Leader Muhammad Ali Jinnah] and many journalists of that period had said that elections were rigged. After the elections Gauhar Ayub, the son of General Ayub Khan, was alleged to have been involved in a feud in Karachi, the center of revolt.
"The economic condition of the people deteriorated during the reign of Ayub Khan. Sugar price was hiked due to the hoarding of sugar by its manufacturers. The people took to streets no sooner than the sugar prices increased and started raising slogans against Ayub Khan.
"The situation became serious when a student in Rawalpindi was hit by a police bullet during a demonstration on November 7, 1968 and protests against Ayub Khan started both in eastern [Pakistan, now Bangladesh] and Western Pakistan. A Bengali actor Zahurul Haq (who was alleged in the Agartala conspiracy) died in the police custody on February 15, 1969. This incident also became a cause of increased hatred against Ayub Khan. Later, Bangladesh was formed within a short span of two years.
"When General Ayub Khan was trying to pacify the anger of political leaders in a round table conference in Rawalpindi on March 6, 1969, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman [leader of East Pakistan, now Bangladesh] was addressing a big public congregation in Dhaka and was asking for a 65 percent representation for the East Pakistan in the government on the basis of its population. Ultimately, General Ayub Khan had to hand over the charges to General Yahya Khan on March 25, 1969, who enforced martial law soon thereafter [and leading to secession of East Pakistan in 1971]."
"The Movement by Pakistan National Alliance [PNA – Coalition of 9 Parties Calling] for the Enforcement of Islamic Sharia in the Country" Led to Rigged Polls, Political Deadlock and Martial Law by General Zia
"The movement by Pakistan National Alliance [PNA – a coalition of nine secular and religious parties] for the enforcement of Islamic Sharia in the country played an important role in the dismissal of the government of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, the 9th Prime Minister of Pakistan. Many political parties in the opposition jointly formed PNA and Bhutto announced fresh elections.
"The PNA was defeated in the [1977] elections but they refused to accept the results and alleged Bhutto of malpractice in the elections. At first, PNA accused Bhutto of rigging in 14 seats of National Assembly [the lower house of the Pakistani parliament] and later in 40 seats, and declared the government formed under Bhutto as illegal.
"When Maulana Maududi called for a coup against Bhutto, people in large numbers started demonstrations in which many valuable lives were lost. Extreme political and social chaos forced Bhutto to hold talks with the PNA leaders, but it was too late. Bhutto and his cabinet members were arrested on July 5, 1977 at the orders of Army Chief [General Zia-ul-Haq]. With the imposition of martial law by General Zia the demand for the imposition of Islamic system by PNA met its own death and the alliance of the nine parties was dissolved."
"[As a Result of Lawyers' Movement] General Musharraf Had to Resign from the Post of Army Chief on November 28, 2007, and He Had to Leave the Presidential Post on August 18, 2008"
"The movement of lawyers [in favor judges sacked by military ruler General Pervez Musharraf] also became the cause of the fall of General Pervez Musharraf. The crisis reached its height when Musharraf dismissed Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, the Chief Justice of Supreme Court, from his post on corruption allegations on March 9, 2007. This led to the country-wide protest and on March 12, 2007 the lawyers started their movement [for restoration of Justice Chaudhry and other judges] by boycotting the court and started organizing rallies in support of the dismissed chief justice.
"Slowly, support for the dismissed chief justice gained ground, and in May 2007 the opposition parties and lawyers started taking out big rallies and General Musharraf faced a legal that he could not hold his post of Army Chief [while continuing to be the president of Pakistan]. On July 20, the Supreme Court restored the Chief Justice. Musharraf imposed emergency on November 3, and dismissed the constitution and chief justice was suspended again from his post.
"The big protest demonstration of the lawyers exposed Musharraf's poor relationship with judiciary, the media and the people. Despite all his attempts and blanket use of power, Musharraf could not compensate the loss. Ultimately, General Musharraf had to resign from the post of Army Chief on November 28, 2007 and he had to leave the presidential post on August 18, 2008 as well."
Analysis in Roznama Jang: "Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan"
Unlike in the Arab World, "The People Of Pakistan Have Seen Changes in Government Several Times"
In a February 1, 2011 analysis in the Urdu-language daily Roznama Jang, journalist Salim Safi wrote: "After the people's revolt against the Hosni Mubarak government in Egypt and the Zine El Abidine government in Tunisia, a new debate has started in Pakistan as usual. The debate has taken a heated turn regarding the possibility of an Egypt-like revolution in Pakistan after the U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's statement that these [uprisings] might not take very long to reach Pakistan. But the question remains of whether there is any similarity between the situation in Pakistan and that in those two countries.
"If seen in a particular perspective, there is no similarity between Pakistan and those two countries. There has been dictatorship in Egypt since its independence. The government of Hosni Mubarak was the continuation of the governments of Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar Sadat, to a greater extent. He has been the ruler of Egypt since 1891 [sic] without any partner, and thus Egyptians have seen no change for almost half a century.
"Similarly, the rule of a single individual was there in Tunisia since its independence in 1956. The Tunisians tolerated Hassen Bourguiba till 1987 and thereafter Zine El Abidine was entrusted upon them. Thus the people there were feeling suffocated to the last extent.
"In contrast, the people of Pakistan have seen changes in the government several times. After many martial-law governments they also tried the governments of Mian Nawaz Sharif and Ms. Benazir Bhutto and now they are bearing the coalition government... The Muslim League (PML-Q) was in the government during the reign of Pervez Musharraf. Religious parties also enjoyed the fruits of power, covertly in the center and openly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [formerly North West Frontier Province] and Baluchistan.
"The MQM [Muttahida Qaumi Movement] has been a part of almost all the governments. The ANP [Awami National Party] is now ruling under the aegis of [i.e. in coalition arrangements with Pakistan People's Party of President Asif Ali] Zardari after the camaraderie of Nawaz Sharif. Thus the Pakistani people have tried almost all the political powers to a certain extent. Even today, almost all noted parties are ruling them. There is no political suffocation here and neither there is any revolutionary leader on the scene on whose call the majority of the citizen come to kill and give their lives."
"The Freedom that the Media has in Pakistan Is Unthinkable in the Arab World"
"In the same way, the freedom that the media has in Pakistan is unthinkable in the Arab world. Due to this the people get an opportunity to fume out their rage. Thus, they are satisfied to a certain extent, and their revolutionary zeal weakens.
"The Arab people had no opportunity to vent out their rage or protest. The rage was simmering in them like in the Soviet Union. The rage of the people with religious bent of mind came out first in the form of Ikhwanul Muslimun and then [support for] Al-Qaeda and when they got an opportunity the people with liberal and democratic milieu exploded suddenly in the form of these revolts [in Egypt]. In our country that rage is being vented out continuously – at place in the form of suicide attacks and at place in the form of debate on the TV and at place in the form of protest marches.
"The people of the Arab world had not seen the protest demonstrations but we have daily protests in our country. The people here are fed up after observing strikes [over different issues in Pakistan]. Now the situation has reached to this level that religious parties give their protest call in advance and then try to find the topic and the cause later. In a way, the passion for protests in Pakistani people has ended to a greater extent and it would be very hard to gather them on a slogan and call them to a place where there is chance to face bullets. In Pakistan the religious parties have the capability and power to organize protest demonstrations but the revolution of Tunisia and Egypt has proved that economy is the major political truth even in the Islamic world and that majority of the people are going away from religious fundamentalism.
"Undoubtedly, minority groups are going more towards extremism but their voice is not getting credentials among the majority. In Egypt, Ikhwanul Muslimun was considered the major opposition in the past but the basis of the current protest is economy and human freedom and the revolt is being led by liberal forces instead of Ikhwanul Muslimun. Similarly, these elements are leading in Tunisia also. If there happens any revolt in Pakistan like that of Egypt and Tunisia, it would be based on economy, which is not an issue for the religious parties and those parties which have economy on their agenda they don't have the power to hold such a revolt or protest."
"The Wretchedness of the Economy Might Become the Cause of Any Big Revolt... in Pakistan" – But Religious Parties With Power to Mobilize Are Not Interested in Economic Issues
"There is extraordinary diversity in the Pakistani society, but there is uniformity in Egypt and Tunisia or other Arab countries. Egypt is inhabited 99 percent by the Arab Egyptians and majority of them come from Hanafi sect and speak only one language. Similarly, 98 percent of the people in Tunisia speak Arabic. Social values and culture are almost similar throughout the country from one end to another and any trend that comes takes the whole country into its grip. But in Pakistan, there reside many nationalities.
"Religious and sectarian diversity is also too much. A trend that is there in Baluchistan [such as among secessionist Baluchi nationalists] has no existence in Peshawar or Karachi. There are contradictory opinion on almost every personality and issue and it is very difficult that a similar kind of wind could blow from Karachi to Chitral.
"Yet, there is one aspect which bears the similarity between the situation in Pakistan and the situation in Egypt and Tunisia. This aspect is the extraordinary gap between the rich and the poor and the wretchedness of the economy. In this way, the situation in Pakistan is more critical in comparison to the two countries. The growth rate in Egypt is 5.31 percent, while it has gone down to four in Tunisia; in Pakistan it is around 2.7 percent. The unemployment and inflation rates are higher in Pakistan than in these two countries. We have an edge in the field of budget deficit and unemployment. In this way, the wretchedness of economy might become the cause of any big revolt, anarchy or disaster anytime in Pakistan.
"The only way out from this is for the rulers to come to the right path. Political and religious rulers should give their attention to the economy, rather than other issues. The military should also play their part and put pressure on the government for the betterment of the economy and the life of common people; stockpiling weapons… has proved that when the people rise up, nothing will come to the rescue – not constitutional rights, not American support, and not tanks and cannon."
