In the recent referendum, Egypt's new constitution was approved by almost 64% of voters. Only some 16 million out of 50 million eligible voters (approximately 30%) participated, of which some 10 million voted yes and some 6 million voted no.[1] The approval of the constitution, however predictable, was a defeat for the Egyptian opposition, represented by the National Salvation Front (headed by Mohamed ElBaradei, Hamdin Sabahi, and 'Amr Moussa), which had called on the Egyptian public to vote against it.
However, though disappointed by the results, Egyptian opposition circles also see them as a substantial achievement indicating the opposition's potential for success. Moreover, they claim that widespread violations and fraud prevented an even bigger achievement for the opposition, and, in fact, invalidate the referendum. Accordingly, the National Salvation Front, the Egyptian Judges Club and civil society organizations have filed lawsuits demanding to revoke the results.[2] At the same time, the opposition is also attempting to draw conclusions and prepare for the next campaign – namely the campaign for the People's Assembly (the lower house of parliament).
Ahead of the referendum, some of the opposition forces united to form the National Salvation Front, but this body was plagued by disagreements and was hesitant and disorganized in its campaign compared to the Islamic forces. Hence, it was unable to recruit widespread popular support as they did.[3] Since the results were published, oppositionist activists and writers have admitted that the failure was due to their camp's disunity and its ineffective information efforts. Some writers in the Egyptian press also mentioned that, in the previous elections to the People's Assembly in May 2012, the opposition had likewise failed to unite, which had given an edge to the Islamic camp. They called on the opposition to learn from past mistakes, draw conclusions, overcome internal disagreements, and come better prepared to the next and most crucial campaign – the elections to the new People's Assembly, which are a few months away.
The following are excerpts from statements and articles by Egyptian opposition members regarding the results of the referendum, and the steps that need to be taken ahead of the coming election.
The National Salvation Front: We Will Draw Conclusions And Come Together To Continue The Struggle
In a statement issued by the National Salvation Front on December 23, 2012, after the official results of the referendum were published, it promised to draw conclusions, come together, and continue fighting in democratic ways from within the parliament to change the constitution and realize the goals of the revolution. The statement said that the results of the recent referendum – compared to the results of the March 2011 referendum about the amendments to the previous constitution, in which a larger portion of the public had voted in favor – indicate a rise in the awareness of the public, which no longer heeds "misguiding propaganda." The message reads: "The people have discovered that those who associate themselves with Islam protect earthly interests and the biggest capitalists, and insist on ratifying a constitution that does not defend the rights of the Egyptian citizen and does not establish a democratic state."
The Salvation Front congratulated the Egyptian people who took responsibility and voted against the constitution. It promised "to continue fighting alongside the people to ensure their interests for a safe life and sufficient employment, for education, healthcare, housing and a better future for its children, and for rights and freedoms – chief among them the right to choose its rulers and replace them periodically according to its free will in fair elections." According to the statement, the front's struggle will be "more active" and its political influence will increase after several parties will unite into one big party. "We will continue democratic action to amend the constitution and realize all the goals of the January 25 Revolution... We are all prepared to sacrifice our bodies and souls for this important objective", it added. It stated further that the referendum "is not the end of the story, but only [one] campaign in this long struggle for Egypt's future... We will not accept a change in Egypt's identity or a return to tyranny."[4]
Former MP: The Opposition Needs Unity And A Clear Political Discourse
In an article titled "Unite!", former MP Dr. Mustafa Al-Naggar – a blogger and human rights activist, and a founding member of the Al-'Adl party and the National Association for Change – wrote: "President Mursi and his movement managed to form and to unite a long line of opposition [groups], which until then had been divided... The important question now is whether the opposition will manage to come together and run the next campaign in unison and without votes being scattered among its members, as happened in the previous parliamentary elections and served the purposes of the political Islamic stream...
"The opposition forces need to settle their affairs ahead of time and adopt a clear political discourse... Selecting the candidates and ranking them on the lists should be done internally according to relevant criteria, so that the most capable people are on the lists, and not according to financial considerations – since the previous elections showed that many of the list heads were selected solely for their financial capabilities... As for independent seats, they are the hardest ones [to win], and [in order to win them], we need the candidates to be national leaders whom the Egyptians trust. We must be careful not to let votes be divided between candidates from the same stream and from the same voting district, as happened last year..."[5]
Some oppositionists stressed the ineffectiveness of their camp's media efforts, compared to those of the Islamic camp. For example, the editor of the independent Egyptian daily Al-Tahrir, Ibrahim 'Issa, who is known for criticizing the Muslim Brotherhood and Mursi's regime, said in a TV interview that the campaign he has waged in recent months along with other media personalities against the Islamic and Salafi streams has been completely ineffective and has failed to sway the public. "A Friday sermon is more influential than a thousand programs we prepare," he said.[6]
SUPPORT OUR WORK
Egyptian Columnist: Now We Must Focus On The Main Battle – The Battle For Parliament
Dr. 'Othman Fikri, a columnist for the independent Egyptian daily Al-Yawm Al-Sabi', wrote: "The liberal streams, parties and political and civil movements... must avoid repeating their mistake, [namely] the mistake of focusing on secondary battles whose outcome is known [in advance], while neglecting the most important main battle, in which they can be very successful and influence the entire political process, [if they only put in] a little effort, planning and serious work. The main battle is the one over the next People's Assembly, while the secondary battles are the increased efforts by these streams and parties [to fight] the constitutional referendum, especially by filing lawsuits to revoke [its results]. These lawsuits are destined to fail due to the immunity granted to the referendum in the recent constitutional declarations,[7] and therefore there is no point in occupying public opinion with this matter.
"At this crucial stage, it is better to focus on the preparations for the People's Assembly elections, to be held in a few months. This is the most important campaign, to which we must now devote every minute of work and recruit every diligent and intelligent worker. The political forces currently need [to form] a serious alliance, [express] sincere intentions, and recognize the importance of the hour... The Islamic forces always bet that the liberal stream will crumble and splinter, while they maintain their alliance and cooperation until their rivals are defeated... The Islamic forces always remain united, and they can cooperate and endure despite raging internal disagreements in many cases... That is why these forces were so successful in the previous parliamentary elections, and why the liberal forces failed. Has the time not come to learn [some] lessons from what happened?
"The importance of the hour is magnified by the fact that the next People's Assembly will be different than its predecessors, since it will be the first [assembly elected] since the ratifying of the new constitution. This means it has a chance to legislate and amend dozens of laws interpreting the articles of the new constitution, and to significantly change [Egypt's] political, economic, social, educational and cultural life. These laws can preserve Egypt's civil nature and the moderate character of Islam in the country... They can prevent [the state from] neglecting the rights of ordinary citizens to health and education services, and to a life of honor and security without humiliation or the need to beg. These laws can protect Egypt's sovereignty over every inch of its territory... This [People's] Assembly can protect the rights of the child and the achievements of the woman in Egypt and build upon them.
"But first and foremost, this [People's] Assembly can call any article of the constitution to discussion and offer amendments to it. This People's Assembly can therefore restore the lost balance to Egyptian political life – if the liberal forces manage to win a majority. This requires ongoing efforts to convince the public throughout Egypt that control by one [political] faction over everything is the biggest problem for countries, since absolute rule is absolute harm..."[8]
National Salvation Front Member: The Referendum Proved That There Is A Real Popular Force Seeking An Alternative To The Muslim Brotherhood
Alongside self-criticism in opposition circles, voices were also heard that described the referendum results as a cause for optimism, since they proved that the opposition was a substantial popular and political force that could gain achievements. National Salvation Front member and former MP 'Amr Al-Hamzawi, who is also a member and founder of the Strong Egypt Party and who participated in the Constituent Assembly, from which he withdrew in protest of its makeup, wrote in the independent Egyptian daily Al-Watan: "The results of the first [round] of the referendum indicate... the falseness of the delusion spread by the [Muslim] Brotherhood and its allies regarding the widespread popular support for the constitution, and regarding the marginality of the political forces that object to it... Egypt now has a real popular force seeking an alternative to the Brotherhood – an alternative to [those who] trade in the religion and intimidate oppositionists, an alternative that is democratic... and which inspires hope."[9]
Al-Watan columnist Dr. Mu'taz Billah 'Abd Al-Fattah, a political science professor at Cairo University and at Central Michigan University, also sees the results of the referendum as an achievement for the opposition: "It is not true that the Egyptian people completely supports President Mursi or that his opponents only number in the thousands. The truth is that Dr. Mursi made decisions, issued statements, and [then] reneged on his promises, which has cause many of his voters... to regret giving him their votes... The political opposition achieved something highly important, which it must preserve, in that it [managed to] unite or at least coordinate, in a way that allowed the support for its position against the constitution to reach high levels in the first round..."[10]
[1] In the first round of voting, on December 15, 2012, 57% voted yes and 43% voted no. This round was held in the governorates of Cairo, Alexandria, Al-Dakahlia, Al-Gharbia, Al-Sharqia, Asyut, Sohag, Aswan, North Sinai, and South Sinai. In the second round, held on December 22, 2012, 71% voted yes and 29% voted no. This round was held in the governorates of Qena, Beni Suef, Al-Minya, Al-Monufia, Al-Beheira, Damietta, Al-Wadi Al-Jadid, Red Sea, Al-Faiyum, Kafr Al-Sheikh, Al-Giza, Port Said, Suez, Matruh, Luxor, Al-Qalyubia, and Ismailia. In total, 63.8% voted yes. English.ahram.org.eg, December 23, 2012; Al-Ahram (Egypt), December 26, 2012.
[2] Alleged violations include polling stations that lacked legal supervision, closed too early, allowed propaganda in violation of the law, or barred Copts from voting; observers who refused to present identification; and individuals who voted using the papers of deceased citizens. Some cases of violence were also recorded: one woman was killed and several dozen were injured in confrontations outside polling stations. Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), December 16-17, 2012.
[3] See MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No. 911, Ahead Of Egypt's Constitutional Referendum: Popular Campaigns For And Against The Constitution, December 14, 2012.
[4] Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), December 23, 2012.
[5] Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), December 24, 2012.
[6] Assabeel.net, December 24, 2012.
[7] See MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No. 907, Egypt Under Muslim Brotherhood Rule: The Constitutional Declaration – Dictatorship In The Name Of The Revolution, December 7, 2012.
[8] Al-Yawm Al-Sabi' (Egypt), December 24, 2012.
[9] Al-Watan (Egypt), December 18, 2012.
[10] Al-Watan (Egypt), December 18, 2012.
