On November 10, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that on November 9 the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan signed a Russia-brokered agreement on a total ceasefire and the termination of hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone.[1] (See APPENDIX)
The agreement was celebrated by Azerbaijan and Turkey as their joint victory,[2] whereas Armenian protestors criticized their own Prime Minister Pashinyan for signing the statement and demanded his resignation.[3]
Commenting on the agreement, the Russian independent media outlet Meduza.io note that the text of the agreement does not clarify what rights the Armenian enclave in Karabakh will enjoy. Meduza added:
"[According to the agreement] Russian peacekeepers will be deployed to the 'contact line' between the two opposing sides.
"The Armenian Karabakh does not cease to exist physically, but the unrecognized breakaway republic's future status is mentioned nowhere in the truce.
"Armenia must return to Azerbaijan control over the territories that were not part of the Soviet Nagorno-Karabakh Region that it seized in the early 1990s. These lands, still currently occupied by Armenian forces, must be handed over to Baku between November 15 and December 1.
"Baku will retain control over the districts in the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic that Azerbaijani troops seized during the 2020 war. This apparently includes the strategically and symbolically significant city of Shusha, which Azerbaijani troops captured on November 9.
"The Karabakh Republic's capital, Stepanakert (just six miles from Shusha), effectively remains under Armenian control. The city will remain connected to Armenia by the Lachin Corridor mountain pass, which will be guarded by Russian peacekeepers.
"In exchange, Baku obtained guarantees that Russian peacekeepers will also guard a corridor to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, Azerbaijan's exclave separated by Armenia.
"The signatories also agreed to the refugees' right of return. Given that Azerbaijani territories are returning to Baku's control, this means Azerbaijanis will have the right to return to the Armenian parts of Karabakh, where an Azeri ethnic minority lived before war broke out in the early 1990s. The United Nations will play a role in the return process. "[4]
In his November 14, 2020 column, titled "Aliyev, Azerbaijan Are Rising! Erdoğan, Turkey Are Taking [The] World By Storm: We Said We Have 'Big Claims'; Now It's Time To Take 'Big Steps,'" AKP mouthpiece Yeni Şafak daily editor-in-chief İbrahim Karagül assessed that Turkey and Azerbaijan are the two great winners of the agreement. "The result that Azerbaijan has achieved in Karabakh is an absolute victory. Occupied lands have been liberated; Azerbaijan's control has been ensured through Karabakh; and Armenia surrendered, saving itself from destruction. This victory cannot be overshadowed through the Russian peace force," Karagül stated.
For Karagül, the victory signified that Turkey has now become a global power, while Azerbaijan has been promoted into a regional power, developments more vexing to Iran than for Russia. Karagül stressed that this change coincided with the collapse of the unilateral world order that the West he maintained for centuries. He further emphasized that Turkey's Caucasus incursion in collaboration with Azerbaijan and the "Karabakh victory" shattered the "great embargo," which had prevented Turkey from reaching the Turkic world.
It is worth mentioning that, in an interview with Russian Federal News Agency (FAN) on October 5, 2020, Russian expert Boris Dolgov stated that if Azerbaijan takes control of Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey may continue its expansion in the Caucasus, as well as in Central Asia and in some regions of Russia. According to Dolgov, the policy of Turkish President Erdoğan indicates that he can take advantage of a land corridor to the Caspian Sea, which will enable Turkey to push further into Central Asia.[5]
Below is Karagül's article:[6]
(Source: Yenisafak.com)
'The Result Azerbaijan Has Achieved In Karabakh Is An Absolute Victory… This Victory Cannot Be Overshadowed Through The Russian Peace Force'
"The result Azerbaijan has achieved in Karabakh is an absolute victory. Occupied lands have been liberated; Azerbaijan's control has been ensured through Karabakh; and Armenia surrendered, saving itself from destruction. This victory cannot be overshadowed through the Russian peace force.
"More importantly, Azerbaijan has come forth as the top dog, the new power of the Caucasus. It has overcome the psychology of 'defense', discovered its self-esteem as a nation and army, learned how to translate its economic power to political and military power, and activated a regional geopolitical tremor.
'Through Great Struggles, Aliyev May Achieve In Azerbaijan What Erdoğan Accomplished In Turkey'
"Alivey is the new powerful leader profile. He's going to materialize a radical transformation within
"As a 'powerful leader profile,' President Ilham Aliyev has come to the fore as an actor not only in his own country but also in the region and the world, and discovering and activating Azerbaijan's and the nation's strength, he has determined a path that will make a permanent impact.
"From now on, Aliyev will take extremely critical steps that will further strengthen Azerbaijan, and we will bear witness to them. Under Aliyev's administration, Azerbaijan will no longer be a state that is known for Karabakh alone, or a country that appears to be Russia's and Iran's backyard, or a country that is limited to its fight with Armenia.
"It is going to build a new system through its own local, national strength – and it should. This is what will put Azerbaijan and Aliyev in that power picture. Through great struggles, Aliyev may achieve in Azerbaijan what President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accomplished in Turkey.
'Armenia No Longer Has Any Chance Of Drawing Support From The U.S. Or Europe, Because This War Has Driven Both Of Them Outside The Caucasus'
"Azerbaijan is a regional, Turkey is a global power
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"Following this transformation, Turkey became the region's great power and activated a global mind. Aliyev may similarly lay the foundations of Azerbaijan's rising era whose founding process was completed with this systematic transformation.
"From now on, Azerbaijan is going to come to the fore as a power of the Southern Caucasus and the Turkic world. By activating its energy geopolitics, it is going to become a globally-reputable country with effective deterrent influence. While Turkey becomes a global power, Azerbaijan is going to turn into a regional power. It seems Iran will be more perturbed by this than Russia.
"The Karabakh victory may be defined as Azerbaijan's and Aliyev's rising period. Armenia's days of flexing its muscles and showing Azerbaijan its force have become history – forever. Armenia no longer has any chance of drawing support from the U.S. or Europe, because this war has driven both of them outside the Caucasus. The most tragic example of this has manifested through France and President Emmanuel Macron.
'The Victory In The Caucasus Is Turkey's Victory As Well'
"Their terror, siege maps eliminated; this is Turkey's map!
"The victory in the Caucasus is Turkey's victory as well. It is Turkey's mobilization of its geopolitical mind, centuries-old tradition and political legacy. The security operations in the East Mediterranean, in Syria, and Iraq are products of this mentality.
"The is the mentality that eliminated the terror map spanning the Iranian border and the Mediterranean, and implemented its own security map. This is the mind that finished France in Libya, that ended the European alliance in the Aegean.
"The July 15 coup attempt was an attack aimed at destroying Turkey, banishing it from history and taking it hostage once again. This was immediately followed by the launch of plans to siege and surround it from the south and the west. In fact, Armenia's attack on Azerbaijan was part of the plan to siege and surround Turkey from the east.
'Turkey Made All Incursions Necessary To Keep Its Southern Gate Open. There Are Still Areas There Waiting To Be Completed'
"Embargo closing the path to the Turkic world shattered
"Turkey made all incursions necessary to keep its southern gate open. There are still areas there waiting to be completed; their time will come too. It is displaying incredible resistance against the Western alliance's incursions aimed at the maritime siege from the Mediterranean and the south and west in the Aegean.
"The leaders of this siege, primarily France, are being pacified one by one. The Libya incursion was the 'coup de grace' of this fight. The Western alliance will soon grasp how and why this siege cannot be implemented.
"Turkey's Caucasus incursion in collaboration with Azerbaijan and the Karabakh victory shattered the great embargo, which had been preventing Turkey from reaching the Turkic world. Those that have been provoking Armenia made a crucial miscalculation.
'We Have Woken Up To A New World, And Turkey Is This World's Superpower'
"The Turkey-Azerbaijan partnership will further strengthen
"They could not think that Turkey and Azerbaijan would take action with such determination. In this sense, the Western mind is 'growing old.' Yet, Turkey is making leaps and bounds in its thinking, and is putting on an amazing charade. Karabakh is the new victory of this state of mind. Anything else could not have been possible.
"The West and the world are struggling to perceive Turkey's new rising objectives. They are rummaging through old books to find a way. Yet, we have woken up to a new world, and Turkey is this world's superpower.
"The solidarity between Turkey and Azerbaijan is going to take on a completely new form from now on. A strong, persevering, and resistant local 'super partnership' is going to be built. This is going to lend great strength to Azerbaijan.
'Erdoğan Is Leading The Way To Re-shaping History And The Region'
'Leader like Erdoğan', 'country like Turkey' is the world's new reality.
"President Erdoğan pointed 'Middle Zone' countries to a path reaching the Muslim geography, the Turkic world, from the Atlantic to the Pacific coasts. He showed them the method to regaining presence. He conveyed to them the incredible spirit of resistance against the presence of colonialism, which has been ongoing in this zone for centuries. He is leading the way to re-shaping history and the region.
"The 'Leader like Erdoğan' model and the 'Country like Turkey' model is going to pave the way to deep changes in this entire 'Middle Zone.' This change coincided with the collapse of the unilateral world order the West has been continuing for centuries, and the global power shifts.
All Countries From The Depths Of Africa To Eastern Asia Will Draw Inspiration From Turkey's Rise
"We said 'big claims,' now it's time to take 'big steps.'
"We had said, 'It is time to make big claims, talk the talk'; now we are saying, 'It is time to take big steps.' All countries that are not under strict tutelage, from the depths of Africa to Eastern Asia, will draw inspiration from Turkey's rise.
"Turkey and Erdoğan are taking the world by storm; this is the most dynamic and shattering new global reality. We are going to witness more of this through these 'big steps.'"
APPENDIX - Statement By The President Of The Republic Of Azerbaijan, Prime Minister Of The Republic Of Armenia And President Of The Russian Federation – November 10, 2020[7]
We, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan I. H. Aliyev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia N. V. Pashinyan and President of the Russian Federation V. V. Putin, declare the following:
1. A complete ceasefire and a cessation of all hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict shall be introduced at 00:00 hours Moscow time on 10 November 2020. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the Parties, shall stop at their current positions.
2. Aghdam district shall be returned to the Republic of Azerbaijan by 20 November 2020.
3. Along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor, a peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation shall be deployed in the amount of 1,960 military personnel with small arms, 90 armored personnel carriers, and 380 units of automobile and special equipment.
4. The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation shall be deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. The period of stay of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years and shall be automatically extended by further five-year period if none of the Parties declares six months prior to the expiration of the period of its intention to terminate the application of this provision.
5. In order to increase the effectiveness of control over the implementation of the agreements by the Parties to the conflict, a peacekeeping center shall be deployed to exercise control over the ceasefire.
6. The Republic of Armenia shall return Kalbajar district to the Republic of Azerbaijan by 15 November 2020 and Lachin district by 1 December 2020, while retaining the Lachin corridor (5km wide), which shall provide a connection of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia and shall not affect the city of Shusha.
By agreement of the Parties, a plan for the construction of a new route along the Lachin corridor shall be determined in the next three years, providing communication between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, with subsequent redeployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to protect this route. The Republic of Azerbaijan shall guarantee the safety of citizens, vehicles and goods traveling along the Lachin corridor in both directions.
7. Internally displaced persons and refugees shall return to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent districts under the control of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
8. The exchange of prisoners of war and other detainees and bodies of the dead shall be carried out.
9. All economic and transport links in the region shall be restored. The Republic of Armenia guarantees the safety of transport links between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in order to organize unhindered movement of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions. Control over transport shall be exercised by the bodies of the Border Guard Service of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of Russia.
By agreement of the Parties, the construction of new transport communications linking the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with the western regions of Azerbaijan shall be ensured.
10 November 2020
President of the Republic of Azerbaijan
Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia
President of the Russian Federation
[1] Kremlin.ru, November 10, 2020.
[2] https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/turkey-karabakh-deal-great-victory-for-azerbaijan-3553804
[3] https://mirrorspectator.com/2020/11/12/anger-frustration-spill-out-onto-yerevans-streets-in-demonstrations-riots/
[4] https://meduza.io/amp/en/feature/2020/11/10/a-difficult-surrender?__twitter_impression=true
[5] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 8998, Russian Expert Dolgov: If Nagorno-Karabakh Returns To Azerbaijan, Turkey Will Move Forward With Its Plan To Unite All Turkic Peoples Across The Region, October 29, 2020. See also MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 9017, Amid Azerbaijan-Armenia Fighting, Turkish Dailies Propose 'Turkic NATO': 'The Turkic States Must Unite', November 9, 2020.
[6] Yenisafak.com, November 14, 2020.
[7] https://en.president.az/articles/45923
