On March 15, 2024, China's National Defense Ministry published the words of its spokesman Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, who stated that "those who connive at and support 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces will get burned for playing with fire and taste the bitter fruit of their own doing." These remarks were in response to a question about U.S. military assistance to Taiwan. It is worth noting that, in his New Year message, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that 2024 will be the year of reunification between China and Taiwan: "Next year will mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China... China will surely be reunified, and all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."[1]
According to renowned Filipino expert Andrew J. Masigan, there are several factors that could trigger an invasion: "First, if [Taiwan's President-elect] Lai Ching-te declares independence from China. Second, for political reasons. China's economy is in bad shape and public dissent is on the rise. A war will distract the Chinese people whilst uniting them. Third, if the People's Liberation Army pressures Xi to invade now (rather than later) since the generals are aging and their preparations will soon be for naught. Fourth, the power struggles within the Chinese Communist Party become so dividing that a war is used to unite the party. Fifth, if China's grey zone intimidation tactics are met with armed response." In addition, Masigan stated that 2024 is an opportune time for China to make its move: "See, America faces a presidential election in November and the last thing the American electorate wants is to fight a war that is not theirs. The more support Biden extends to Taiwan, the less popular he becomes. So should China attack Taiwan this year, Biden will be politically constrained."[2]
(Source: Twitter)
Following is the report by China's Ministry of Defense:
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"Those Who Connive At And Support 'Taiwan Independence' Separatist Forces Will Get Burned For Playing With Fire And Taste The Bitter Fruit Of Their Own Doing"
"A Chinese defense spokesperson sternly warned that those who connive at and support 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces will get burned for playing with fire and taste the bitter fruit of their own doing, at a regular press briefing on Friday.
"Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of National Defense, made the remarks in response to the media query on the US military assistance to Taiwan. According to reports, the US government put forward a standalone request for Taiwan military assistance for the first time in its Budget for Fiscal Year 2025, which authorized to tap the US stockpiles to assist Taiwan in strengthening the so-called 'deterrence'. In addition, advisors from the US Special Forces Green Berets have been sent to Taiwan for long-term stationing to train Taiwan's amphibious special operations force."
"The Chinese PLA Will Stay On High Alert"
"'Taiwan is China's Taiwan. The Taiwan question is at the very core of China's core interests, and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-US relations,' said the spokesperson, adding that the US side recently obscured, distorted and hollowed out the one-China principle through military aid and arms sales to Taiwan, and sending personnel to assist Taiwan in training its troops. These moves sent a seriously wrong signal to the 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces and severely undermined peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
"The spokesperson urged the US side to immediately end any form of official exchanges and military contact with Taiwan, stop arming Taiwan, and fulfill its commitment of not supporting 'Taiwan independence' with concrete actions. 'The Chinese PLA will stay on high alert, firmly safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity and resolutely smash 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities and external interfering attempts,' stressed the spokesperson."
[1] Fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202312/t20231231_11215608.html, December 31, 2024.
[2]Filipino Journalist Andrew Masigan: Xi Jinping Said That '2024 Will Be The Year Of Reunification Between China And Taiwan'; 'Should China Succeed In Its Taiwan Campaign, An Invasion Of Strategic Areas Of Southeast Asia Will Likely Follow,' March 11, 2024.
