According to a lengthy essay published in China Review News in December 2020, "in the event of an all-out confrontation between China and the United States, the United States would find itself at a great strategic disadvantage. It will be bound to pay a high economic, political, and security cost which could lead to a complete breakdown of the hegemony of the United States in the world."
The essay states that the China-U.S. rivalry is not only "physical" but also "spiritual" (i.e. ideological), but adds that it is interests, not values, that have proven decisive in state-to-state relations: "Values are secondary to interests. The result of a full-scale confrontation between the United States and China will be a split between the United States and its allies and partners with 'time-tested relationships based on war and shared sacrifice, shared values and interests, a split in the US-led alliance and a severely weakened US position as the world's dominant power."
In conclusion, the essay notes that it is not known whether an all-out China-U.S. confrontation will lead to a world war, but that it will certainly lead to chaos in the world: "Existing conflicts in East Asia, the Middle East, Africa and even Latin America are likely to intensify, various forces will be reorganized, the control of the United States over these regions will encounter severe challenges in many aspects, and the United States will face more and more serious security threats."
It is worth noting that China Review News Agency, billed as "the first digital 24/7 media," is backed by the Chinese government and based in Hong Kong, Beijing, and Guangzhou, and billed as It is known to be one of the Chinese media outlets used by the government to test reactions to policies that it is not yet ready to openly adopt.
Below is the essay in the China Review News:[1]
(Source: Globaltimes.cn)
The United States Has Repeatedly Impinged On China's Vital Interests
"In the event of an all-out confrontation between China and the United States, the United States would find itself at a great strategic disadvantage. It will be bound to pay a high economic, political, and security cost which could lead to a complete breakdown of the hegemony of the United States in the world.
"The idea that 'America is peerless under heaven' has long been ingrained in some Americans. Therefore, in the face of the rise of China, the strategy of the United States against China has evolved from the trade war and the war of science and technology at the beginning to containment and strike against China from various dimensions. Especially since 2020, in order to maintain its hegemony, the United States has carried out all-round encirclement and suppression against China. The consequences are serious for both the United States and China.
"I. In order to suppress China, the United States has been constantly provocative and has repeatedly pushed at China's vital interests, which has increasingly strained bilateral relations and the regional security situation.
"From January 1, 2019 to August of this year [2020], members of the US Congress introduced 366 China-related bills, the largest number proposed since the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and the United States.
"The United States has formed a task force against the Chinese government by the Departments of Commerce, Department of Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative, Department of Defense, Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security. The Unites States has ignored basic norms governing international relations, violated the One-China principle, and violated the three China-US joint communiqués. In early August of 2020, the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar visited Taiwan. On September 17, 2020, US Under Secretary of State Keith Krach paid a 'visit' to Taiwan. All these actions have undermined China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
"On October 20, 2020, the 'China Task Force' of the United States House of Representatives introduced a package of bills. The 'China Task Force Act' includes a series of pro-Taiwan acts that 'support Taiwan's international participation' and maintain US forces to prevent mainland China from attacking Taiwan by force. Seven of these bills are closely related to Taiwan, including the Taiwan Assurance Act of 2020, which supports Taiwan's inclusion in international organizations; Senate Bill S.249 of the United States Of America, which directs the US Secretary of State to develop a strategy to regain observer status for Taiwan in the World Health Organization (WHO), and for other purposes; The Taiwan Symbols of Sovereignty Act (Taiwan SOS Act), which instructs the US Defense Secretary to allow Taiwan's 'government' and military personnel to display symbols of Taiwan's sovereignty while performing official duties in the United States; The Taiwan Defense Act (TDA), which requires the Department of Defense to maintain the ability to defeat a Chinese invasion – and in particular, a Chinese fait accompli – against Taiwan and to report regularly on its progress toward this goal, etc.
"At the same time, the United States has been increasing its military ties with Taiwan and promoting arms sales to Taiwan. Before the visit led by Keith Krach, the United States deliberately sent out a message to the international community that the Trump Administration intends to 'package' and sell seven kinds of military weapons to Taiwan. In addition to the M142 HIMARS rocket launchers, large reconnaissance UAVs, and land-based Harpoon anti-ship missiles, the weapons also include a long-range air-to-surface missile. The missile, known as the AGM-84H SLAM-ER, is an advanced standoff precision-guided, air-launched cruise missile developed by Boeing, the US giant arms company. The cruise missile can be launched by fighter jets, capable of striking ground and surface targets from an intermediate range.
"The United States has been hyping up the US-Taiwan joint training program, giving the Taiwan authorities a 'shot in the arm' and sending them a seriously wrong signal, enabling the passage of bills proposed by the Kuomintang Party Caucus in the Taiwan legislature, such as the so-called 'Request for assistance from the United States to resist the mainland' and the 'Restoration of diplomatic relations' between Taiwan and the United States.'
"The United States is the epicenter of the global COVID-19 pandemic, with 8.962 million confirmed cases and more than 231,000 deaths as of October 26, 2020. The Trump administration has frequently attacked and vilified China in an unscrupulous manner in order to shirk its responsibility for the pandemic response and divert domestic conflicts.
"The United States has repeatedly impinged on China's vital interests and seriously challenged China's sovereignty. In the past six months, the United States has conducted 3,000 aircraft sorties and sent 60 warships in the South China Sea. It has seriously undermined China-US relations, peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea, and made the regional security situation increasingly grave.
By Underestimating China's Resolve, American Politicians Have Been Responded By China's Escalating Military Power
"II. In the face of the encirclement and suppression by the United States, China exercised great restraint for the sake of national development and world peace. However, such restraint cannot be unlimited. Once China reaches the unbearable point of no retreat, it will certainly take all means to safeguard its core interests. At that time, China-U.S. relations will go backwards and worsen in an all-round way, or even move towards a comprehensive confrontation.
"Since Washington formally severed 'diplomatic ties' with Taiwan in the late 1970s, all previous US administrations before President Trump took office have recognized the 'One China' policy and arms sales to the breakaway island were limited to 'defensive' weapons. But the Unites States under the Trump administration has signaled a retreat from the 'One China' policy and a clear shift towards supporting Taiwan and its separatist stance. In the past year alone, the Unites States has sold Taiwan tens of billions of dollars in offensive missiles, torpedoes, anti-ship mines and F-16 fighter jets.
"The barrage of arms sales to Taiwan is a reflection of the growing belligerence of the United States towards China. The foreign-policy apparatus of the United States and the Pentagon have targeted China as a great power rival. President Trump lost the election, but the hostility is not going away. The course of confrontation set by the United States against China based on its own concept of imperialist hegemony will not change.
"The Unites States continues to provoke and fan the flames on the Taiwan issue, which will only further irritate China-US relations and exacerbate tensions. China is firmly opposed to anyone interfering in its internal affairs by any means, firmly defends national sovereignty and national interests, and will never make concessions on principled issues concerning its core national interests.
"This cowardly act of bashing others for its own political gain will sooner or later bring the Unites States down. The United States is playing with fire by running amok over China's sovereignty and national security and insisting on selling increasingly offensive weapons to Taiwan.
"The Trump administration's various extreme anti-China policies have brought China-US relations to the lowest point in 40 years, and even caused many prominent figures in the Unites States strategic community to worry that the United States and China may be on the brink of war and are getting closer to the dangerous 'red line.'
"By underestimating China's resolve, American politicians have been responded by China's escalating military power and flexing its muscles to assert its right to reclaim Taiwan. The rivalry between China and the United States over Taiwan could now be one spark away from a fire.
'Without The Power Of Finance, The US… After Two Decades Of Deindustrialization, Would Be As Doomed As The Old Empires In The Past'
"III. In the event of an all-out confrontation, the United States would find itself at great strategic disadvantages.
"(1) The huge economic costs and prices will endanger the hegemony of the United States.
"The United States is a country that depends on financial hegemony to survive, so the fundamental interest of the ruling class in the United States lies in the maintenance of financial hegemony of the United States, namely, the maintenance of dollar-oil circulation system. Especially since the formation of the Jamaican System in the 1970s, US Treasury bills have effectively become a credit currency that does not need to be repaid.
"As long as this pattern persists, the hegemony of the Unites States will continue. Instead, without the power of finance, the United States, the most powerful pole in the world, after two decades of deindustrialization, would be as doomed as the old empires in the past.
"In the face of escalating provocations of the United States this year [2020], China reduced its holdings of US Treasuries by 143.7 billion US dollars (about 993.269 billion yuan) over the past 22 months to the end of August, 2020, its strongest response yet. If China, the world's second largest economy, abandoned the dollar-oil circulation system, it would set off a chain reaction around the world, and the financial hegemony of the United States would become a thing of the past.
"China and the United States are the world's largest economies. Never in modern history have two rivals been so closely intertwined economically or even culturally. Not only is China the largest market in all fields, but it can be the largest economy and market in almost every critical sector.
"The United States depends on China for its manufacturing plants and for its purchases of US Treasury bonds. Starbucks has 4,100 stores in China, McDonald's has 2,300 restaurants and Wal-Mart has 430 stores. Apple's annual revenue in China is more than 40 billion US dollars, Intel's is 20 billion US dollars, Nike's is 6 billion US dollars, and China is the NBA's largest international market. GM produces 3 million cars a year in China. China accounts for more than 20 percent of Boeing's commercial revenue.
"Americans use Chinese-made iPhones and personal protective gear, and their universities, underinvested for decades, are supported by Chinese students who pay full tuition.
"Because of the close economic ties between the two countries, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo acknowledged in his Cold War declaration to China in August 2020 that 'China is deeply integrated into the global economy.'
"If an all-out confrontation were to occur, the United States would need to fill the gap with far more federal money for basic research, science and math education than it currently spends. That could mean higher taxes and a more friendly immigration policy for foreign talent from other countries to offset a possible brain drain from China. In addition, American consumers need to be prepared to pay higher prices for a new secure and diverse supply chain. Moreover, if the United States continues to rely on the issuance of bonds, it will greatly damage the dollar's status as the world's currency, ultimately leading to massive inflation and the collapse of its financial hegemony.
"Meanwhile, in the event of a full-scale confrontation, the trade agreement signed between the two countries, under which China agrees to buy an average of at least 40 billion US dollars a year of American food, agricultural and seafood over the next two years, will be a scrap of paper.
'The Rivalry Between China And The United States Is Not Only Physical But Also Spiritual'
"(2) The US-led political coalition will split.
"The US allies in Asia are willing to cooperate with the United States to contain China, but it is difficult for them to firmly take the road of outright confrontation with China, and the United States' European allies even less have the motivation to confront China.
"The rivalry between China and the United States is not only physical but also spiritual. In spirit, that is, in ideology, Europe has always been on the side of the United States. Especially when it comes to playing the human rights card and challenging China on human rights issues, Europe and the United States are highly united, and Europe is a staunch accomplice of the United States.
"However, Europe and the United States differ in their interest orientation. The result of the 90-minute video meeting on June 16, 2020, held among the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, the foreign ministers of the 27 European Union countries, and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, is the best testament to this. Writing on the European Union's official website a day before the video conference, Mr. Borrell said the EU risked being told by big countries to 'take sides,' but that it had to 'go its own way' and face all the challenges that came with it. 'We also want to work with China on some issues,' he said.
"On July 23, 2020, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was on a visit to Europe. The purpose of Pompeo's visit was to pull European allies into a 'chariot' against China, but he ran into a wall in Europe. Pompeo's first stop was the United Kingdom, where he said he hoped to form an international coalition aimed at confronting China. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson shied away from Pompeo's suggestion of forming an alliance against China, and countries such as Germany and France directly defied the United States on some issues. Even US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who has been tough on China, has been blunt in saying that while the United States has never been tougher on China, it is still very difficult for the United States to bring its allies together to confront China.
"In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan's need to 'strategically promote a free and open Indo-Pacific policy' while at the same time 'establish stable and good-neighborly relations with China and Russia' means it has to be cautious in its words and actions, rather than taking statements lightly.
"As for India, the United States is courting it, China and Russia want to develop friendly relations with it, and it is also a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the BRICS countries. Only by not choosing sides can India achieve success one way or another.
"During the fifth Strategic Economic Dialogue between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States on October 14, 2020, the United States raised the banner of 'national security risks' and demanded that the Republic of Korea stop using 5G equipment from Huawei and other Chinese technology companies, which was rejected by ROK officials.
"Indonesia is a 'strategic partner' of the United States in Southeast Asia. In July and August 2020, U.S. officials repeatedly made high-level contacts with Indonesia's defense and foreign ministers to allow their Boeing P-8 Poseidon Maritime patrol aircraft to dock or refuel in Indonesia, but Indonesia refused.
"'We don't want to be tricked into an anti-China campaign,' said Dino Patti Djalal, a former Indonesian ambassador to the United States. 'Indonesia has deeper economic ties with China, which is now the most influential country in Indonesia.'
"It is interests, not values, that have been proven to be decisive in state-to-state relations. Values are secondary to interests. The result of a full-scale confrontation between the United States and China will be a split between the United States and its allies and partners with 'time-tested relationships based on war and shared sacrifice, shared values and interests,' a split in the US-led alliance and a severely weakened US position as the world's dominant power.
'Whether An All-Out Confrontation Between China And The United States Will Lead To A World War Is Unknown, But It Will Certainly Lead To Chaos In The World'
"(3) The ability of the United States to control the rest of the world in terms of security would be severely compromised.
"Whether an all-out confrontation between China and the United States will lead to a world war is unknown, but it will certainly lead to chaos in the world. Existing conflicts in East Asia, the Middle East, Africa and even Latin America are likely to intensify, various forces will be reorganized, the control of the United States over these regions will encounter severe challenges in many aspects, and the United States will face more and more serious security threats.
"If there is an all-out confrontation between China and the United States, the Asia-Pacific region will be the main battleground for this confrontation. The United States has five treaty allies and many close and important partners in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States' two most die-hard allies in the region, Japan and South Korea, have close economic, social and cultural ties with China. It is impossible for them to be as tough against China as the United States, and they are showing increasingly strong centrifugal force against the United States.
"Regional partnerships are an existing advantage for the United States, but not a permanent or immutable one. For the United States to maintain this relationship, and for its allies and security partners to gain political, economic, and security benefits, there must be a significant cost.
"In a full-scale confrontation with the United States, China would surely punish its staunch allies and countries that maintain close security ties with the United States. When the costs of China's punishment outweigh the benefits the United States brings to its partners, it will be difficult for the United States to maintain and strengthen its relations with these countries. The United States, in its strategic retrench, can no longer afford to provide its allies with money, technologies and markets it once lavishly offered, but instead requires its allies to pay it protection fees. This doomed the disintegration of the alliance. Japan, in particular, is a nation that will never forget that it was the United States that brought it to its doom. In a comprehensive confrontation between China and the United States, if the United States is on the losing side, it is Japan that is most likely to inflict a fatal blow on the United States.
"A comprehensive confrontation between China and the United States would surely lead to chaos in the Middle East. Located at the confluence of Europe, Asia and Africa, the Middle East is surrounded by the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, so it is called the land of 'three continents and five seas.' In addition, there are many important straits in the Middle East, which are the key points of communication between the Atlantic Ocean and the Indian Ocean, Europe and Asia, and East and West. They are of great strategic significance in world politics, economy and military. Therefore, since ancient times, the Middle East has been a place of contention for military forces. It is regarded as the key region that must be occupied first by the foreign powers to seek hegemony in the world.
"The Middle East is a vital part of the United States' strategic map, and Israel is a staunch ally propped up by the United States for this reason. But Iran, a tough rival of the United States in the Middle East, has not budged in the absence of foreign aid, no matter what the United States does to it. With the United Nations having lifted the arms embargo on Iran, China will fully finance Iran's confrontation with the United States in the event of a full-scale confrontation between China and the United States. The United States no longer has an overwhelming advantage over Iran. This would surely shake 'the very foundations of the survival of the United States, Europe and NATO.'
"Let's look at Europe. The European Union has been preoccupied for years, and problems such as solidarity among its members and social divisions within some countries are the closest to them and need to be addressed more urgently. Western European countries already have a grudge against the United States and are wary of being played as a pawn.
"Russia is the main opponent of the European Union and NATO in Europe, and the competition between NATO and Russia in the geopolitical sphere of influence in Europe is becoming more and more intense in the attack of NATO for many years aimed at 'weakening Russia' and 'deterring Russia.' In the event of a full-scale conflict between China and the United States, when the United States makes every effort to cope with the confrontation with China, Russia will certainly seize this golden moment and make Europe become extremely destabilized.
"IV. Summary
"The huge cost and loss caused by the comprehensive confrontation between China and the United States, the alienation of its allies, the weakening of its control over various regions, and the increase of various security threats will make the world hegemony of the United States, which has been constantly weakened, fall off a cliff. It is feared that the United States, despite its efforts to maintain its hegemony, will eventually find that the world hegemony it hopes to keep forever will wither away in the comprehensive confrontation with China."
[1] China Review News, No. 276, December 2020. The article was written by Jiang Dongliu, apparently a pseudonym for a Hong Kong front of a mainland center. Bj.crntt.com/doc/1059/4/4/6/105944645.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=105944645&mdate=1228143657
