On March 16, 2022, "Chen Jian Observation – Normalized Development" (陈剑观察—常态发展), a public account on the Chinese platform Weixin.qq.com, published an article titled "On March 16, the balance of war tipped" that clearly condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As of this writing, the article has not been yet been removed by the CCP cyber police.
The article stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin had signed a joint statement with Chinese President Xi Jinping that offered several conditions for China's satisfaction. The reason for this was given as Putin's manipulation of China in order to trap Beijing into an "evil-like and unkind position" in the war on Ukraine. However, the articles stresses that China will never attack Ukraine, stating: "It is this war that violated the basic rules of human civilization, which brought the whole of Russia into a boundless abyss while bringing huge humanitarian disaster to the Ukrainian people. And it was opposed by all the people who love peace in the world, including the Russian people."
The article concludes: "It now seems that Russia's failure is only a matter of time. There should be no doubt about it. For international strategists, they already start to consider how to clean up Russia's post-war mess and enter the post-Putin era."
Below are excerpts of the article:[1]
(Source: Kremlin.ru)
"Why China And Russia Issued A Joint Statement… And Why Russia Offered Various Conditions To China's Satisfaction'
"… In the years to come, many days will no longer be remembered, but people will remember this day, February 4, 2022. This day was the fourth day of the Chinese Year of the Tiger, still in the Spring Festival. Hundreds of millions of Chinese people were immersed in the joy of celebrating the New Year. This day was also the opening day of the Beijing Winter Olympics. China, as a host country, had worked hard for more than six years for this simple but wonderful Winter Olympics.
"However, none of these seem to be significant anymore. The only important thing is that on that day, the Russian President made a historic visit to China, not only fulfilling the 'Winter Olympics Tryst' in attending the opening ceremony of the 24th Winter Olympics in Beijing, but also having a talk with Chinese leader. Both then issued the Joint Statement on International Relations and Global Sustainable Development in the New Era (hereinafter referred to as the 'Statement'), and they made 15 strategic cooperation agreements. After completing the above work, the Russian President attended the Beijing Winter Olympics.
"Looking at the photos of the Russian President at the Beijing Winter Olympics, you can almost feel the joyful satisfaction of the Russian President.
"I have always wondered what kind of big game the Russian President was playing. I don't know why China and Russia issued a joint statement at this time, and why Russia offered various conditions to China's satisfaction. To be precise, China has almost got everything it wanted—that is to say, almost all of China's international diplomatic demands have been fully supported by Russia, which was unimaginable in the past. Including the Belt and Road, origin-tracing of the novel coronavirus, Taiwan issue, Fukushima nuclear wastewater in Japan, big data, informatization (Russia not only clearly stands with China, but also expressed its willingness to 'deepen' the 'cooperation' between the two countries in informatization), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, ASEAN, etc.
"Taking the issue of origin-tracing of the novel coronavirus as an example, the Statement said, 'tracing origin of the novel coronavirus is a scientific issue, which should be based on a global perspective and be carried out by scientists around the world, and oppose the politicization of the issue of origin-tracing of the novel coronavirus. Russia welcomes the joint research effort between China and the WHO on origin-tracing of the novel coronavirus, and supports the China-WHO joint research report on origin-tracing of the novel coronavirus. Both sides call on the international community to jointly maintain the scientific nature and seriousness of origin-tracing research.'
"But what did China give Russia? China didn't seem to give much. In addition to both sides recognizing Taiwan as China's territory since ancient times, there are two main points. First, the two sides oppose the continued expansion of NATO and call on NATO to abandon the Cold War ideology, respect the sovereignty, security, interests and diversity of civilization, history and culture of other countries, and treat the peaceful development of other countries in an objective and fair manner. Second, China understands and supports the Russia's proposal to build a legally binding long-term security guarantee in Europe. China has satisfied the above two demands of the Russian side. Russia didn't ask too much. What is the Russian president thinking about, and what kind of big game is he playing?
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'Assertions That China Knew About, Acquiesced To Or Tacitly Supported This War Are Purely Disinformation'
"On February 24, when artillery fire broke out on the Russian-Ukrainian border, I suddenly woke up. The Russian president did play a big game, and he made the world feel that the Russian president's moves had the support of his Chinese allies. The Russian president's manipulations trapped China into an evil-like and unkind position. It seems that the Russian president has already discussed this war with the Chinese leader, and the two countries have formed a strategic alliance. Although after this, various signs have shown that the so-called 'special military operation' initiated by Russia was unknown to China, but there was a lack of strong evidence to prove it. It was not until 40 days later, on March 16, that the speeches of the two Chinese ambassadors made a clear argument.
"On March 15, U.S. time, Qin Gang, the Chinese ambassador to the U.S., published a signed article titled 'Our Position on Ukraine' in the Washington Post. His main argument said:
"'There have been claims that China had prior knowledge of Russia's military action and demanded Russia delay it until the Winter Olympics concluded. Recent rumors further claimed that Russia was seeking military assistance from China. Let me say this responsibly: assertions that China knew about, acquiesced to or tacitly supported this war are purely disinformation. All these claims serve only the purpose of shifting blame to and slinging mud at China. There were more than 6,000 Chinese citizens in Ukraine. China is the biggest trading partner of both Russia and Ukraine, and the largest importer of crude oil and natural gas in the world. Conflict between Russia and Ukraine does no good for China. Had China known about the imminent crisis, we would have tried our best to prevent it.
"'… On Ukraine, China's position is objective and impartial: The purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter must be fully observed; the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine, must be respected; the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously; and all efforts that are conducive to the peaceful settlement of the crisis must be supported.'
"On March 16, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Ambassador Qin Gang had fully stated China's position in his article. In other words, Russia's war operations have not been supported by China, and they also go against China's consistent stance for peace.
"On March 15, Ukrainian time, Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Fan Xianrong said during a meeting with the head of the military administration, Maxim Koztsky, that 'China will always be a good force in economy and in politics for Ukraine,' that 'China will never attack Ukraine,' and that we will respect the path chosen by the Ukrainians, as this is the sovereign right of every country.
"'China will never attack Ukraine' – the speech of the Chinese ambassador to Ukraine clearly stated China's principled position.
'[Russia's War On Ukraine] Violated The Basic Rules Of Human Civilization'
"The so-called 'special military operation' launched by Russia has been a full 20 days. How the war situation will go in the future is actually very clear.
"A week ago, on March 9, when I posted 'Analysis of China's Position and the Trend of the Russian-Ukrainian War' on the official account of Normalized Development, I said, 'Russia has seriously underestimated Ukraine's determination to resist, has seriously underestimated Ukraine's military strength, has seriously underestimated the resistance and resentment to this military conflict from other countries around the world, especially European countries, and overestimated its own military capabilities.' It now appears that my views are in line with reality.
"The so-called 'special military operation' launched by Russia violated the conscience and justice of mankind and violated the basic rules of human civilization. That is Kant's 'universal law,' which is the same for all people. Russians also violated the principle of non-violence, which is to resolve disputes and conflicts by peaceful means rather than by war. As a country, China has suffered from wars and aggressions. So China deeply feels the great pain brought to mankind by war. At the same time, China is very peace-loving and has very deep and painful memories of such so-called 'special military operations.' Any Chinese who has a conscience and memory of history should strongly condemn this war of aggression which has brought great suffering to the Ukrainian people. In the face of human conscience, in the face of right and wrong, the response should be clear and unambiguous.
"It is this war that violated the basic rules of human civilization, which brought the whole of Russia into a boundless abyss while bringing huge humanitarian disaster to the Ukrainian people. And it was opposed by all the people who love peace in the world, including the Russian people. Currently, the global sanctions against Russia for waging war are comprehensive. In particular, economic sanctions have far-reaching effects; nearly 200 Nobel Prize-winning scientists around the world have signed their names against the war, reflecting the views of the world's scientific and technological elites on war; 15,000 people in Russia have been detained for opposing the war, indicating that the war did not have the support of the Russian people. This also led to low morale and instability of Russian soldiers on the battlefield. A just cause gains great support, an unjust one gains little. Russia's invasion has been opposed by the vast majority of countries and people in the world.
'Russia's Defeat Now Seems Only A Matter Of Time'
"Let's look at what's happened in the world around the Russian-Ukrainian war in the 24 hours before and after March 16, to support the conclusion that the war balance has been tilted.
"On March 16, the prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia returned to Poland from Kyiv, Ukraine. On the evening of the 15th, Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki, Deputy Prime Minister Kaczynski, Czech Prime Minister Fiala and Slovenian Prime Minister Jansa met with Ukrainian President Zelensky and Prime Minister Shmigal in Kyiv. The arrival of the delegations of the prime ministers from three countries expressed the EU's strong support for Ukraine.
"On March 15, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution to investigate Putin's war crimes.
"On March 16, the U.S. State Department announced a series of actions to hold the governments of the Russian Federation and Belarus accountable for human rights abuses and violations.
"On March 16, the content of the third China-US talks in Rome on the 14th was released. The Sino-US talks have attracted worldwide attention. Judging from the information that has been disclosed, although there are huge differences between China and the United States on many issues, due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, Sino-US relations have shown signs of easing. On March 15, the US Boeing MAX aircraft previously purchased by China flew to China. Previously, China had stopped purchasing Boeing and vigorously promoted the replacement of domestic aircraft. This is the first time to resume aircraft purchases since the trade war.
"The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the 15th, announcing the start of the procedure for Russia to withdraw from the European Commission.
"Russia's defeat now seems only a matter of time, and there should be no doubt about that. For international strategists, they have already begun to consider how to clean up the post-war Russia mess and enter the post-Putin era."
[1] Mp.weixin.qq.com/s/24_Et4SNrsRIHZs0dArbHghttps://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/24_Et4SNrsRIHZs0dArbHg, March 16, 2022.
