Chinese Pundit Jiang Pingzhou: Presence Of North Korean Troops In Russia-Ukraine War Violates China's Principles Of Peaceful Negotiation; This Might Result In Other Countries – Including China – Getting Directly Involved In The Conflict

On October 19, 2024, influential Chinese pundit Jiang Pingzhou shared on his Bilibili account a video in which he expressed concern over North Korea’s decision to send troops to the Russia-Ukraine war. He warned of serious geopolitical repercussions, particularly for China, and he explained that North Korea’s military presence in the Russia-Ukraine war undermines China’s longstanding principles of ceasefire and peaceful negotiation, while also risking escalation of the conflict, especially since it violates the tacit agreement against deploying foreign militaries in the conflict. He speculated that North Korea’s involvement breaks the balance and raises the possibility that countries like Poland could follow suit and deploy their armies in the conflict too, ultimately dragging other countries – including China – into the conflict.

Jiang Pingzhou: "How should China view North Korea's deployment of troops to the Russia-Ukraine battlefield? First, we need to make one thing clear: China's top national interest is peace. War must not spread to East Asia or to China's surroundings. This is why China has consistently advocated for a ceasefire, ending the conflict, and peaceful negotiations. North Korea's decision to send troops to the Russia-Ukraine war for its own interests seriously violates China's stance on ceasefire negotiations. This is clearly an act of escalating the conflict. It's important to understand that the West has long wanted to intervene, especially some Eastern European countries that are extremely hostile toward Russia. The West has drawn a 'line,' meaning it sends officers or mercenaries but keeps regular troops out of the conflict. There are also limits on weapons, missiles sent to Ukraine must not be capable of directly hitting Russia territory. This restraint is due to fears that Russia might use nuclear weapons – an unspoken understanding between the U.S. and Russia.

"However, with North Korea now involved, the nature of the situation changes immediately. Russia was the first to break the 'non-participation of other nations' regular armies' tacit agreement. Now that this understanding has been broken, can Poland's regular military also intervene in Ukraine as a matter of course? After all, Ukraine's survival is of great significance to Poland. If Ukraine falls today, Poland could be next. So, if given the opportunity, Poland will surely send troops to help. However, such a development would escalate the Russia-Ukraine war from a bilateral conflict into a regional war. More and more countries' regular armies would join the fight, and more nations would be directly drawn into the flames of war. In this scenario, China might find it difficult to stay uninvolved and could also be dragged into the conflict.

"After the Korean War, China made great efforts over the decades to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, precisely to avoid further chaos and conflict in the region. China needs a peaceful and stable surrounding environment to develop its economy and improve its people's standard of living. However, now that North Koreas has directly involved and actively joined the Russia-Ukraine war and expanded the conflict, it will inevitably heighten tensions and increase the likelihood of China being pulled into the war. South Korea held an emergency security meeting overnight to discuss countermeasures in response to North Korea's involvement in the conflict. It is easy to imagine that North Korea's participation provides further justification for the international community to intensify sanctions against it, while also creating more room for discussions about an 'Asian NATO.' This enables the U.S. to further integrate East Asia into a region of escalating conflicts. At that point, even if China has no intention of getting involved in the war, it could still be dragged into it, just like during the Korean War.

"The First World War originated from small sparks and localized conflicts, eventually dragging multiple major powers into a global war. The increasingly uncontrollable situation in today's conflicts also raises concerns that a Third World War is not far from us. North Korea's formal participation in the Russia-Ukraine war is not a good thing – it undermines the stability on the Korean Peninsula that China has worked hard to maintain for decades, and it contradicts China's long-standing three principles of ceasefire and ending the war. China's primary task is economic recovery, not getting involved in wars. Who most hopes for China to get involved in a war? Of course, the United States. The U.S. is already deeply involved in both the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in Israel, and it wants China to be dragged into war too, disrupting China's peaceful development and halting its upward trajectory. So, how do I feel about North Korea sending troops to Ukraine? It weighs heavily on my heart, it's not a good thing."