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On October 21, 2024, Chinese intellectual Wang Xiaodong shared on his Haokan Video account a video in which he said that the participation of North Korean troops in the Russia-Ukraine war in fact decreases the likelihood of a conflict between North Korea and South Korea, since if North Korea were on the brink of war with South Korea, it would not be dispatching resources abroad. Wang explained that Pyongyang can deliver a steady supply of troops to Russia and has a vested interest in doing so because it would strengthen its military alliance in Russia without escalating its own regional conflicts. Wang said that it is best for China to remain uninvolved, focusing on its own interests rather than competing for North Korean allegiance.
Wang Xiaodong: "Let me briefly discuss this topic. What significance does this issue have? Firstly, it [deployment of North Korean troops] helps to replenish Russia's military personnel, of course. Even though Russia has a larger population than North Korea, their mobilization capabilities differ. To some extent, Russia's control is not as strict. Although anti-war activities are now prohibited and controlled more strictly, it's not as severe [as in North Korea]. There was a case where a 12-year old girl [in Russia] protested against the war at school, and her father was arrested and sentenced. The sentence wasn't heavy – about one year and ten months.
"Of course, let me explain fully: the authorities traced her father through her anti-war activities, finding that he had also posted anti-war messages on social media, which led to his punishment. The control is quite strict. Even so, Russia's control is relatively lenient. Many draft dodgers managed to escape abroad, and when they couldn't make it abroad, they returned, and nothing happened to them. Russia's control is not that strict. In contrast, North Korea's control is extremely strict, resulting in different mobilization capabilities. Therefore, the manpower that North Korea can provide, in terms of soldiers, is valuable to Russia.
"We'll see how many troops North Korea can ultimately supply. Currently, it's about 1,500. Another aspect is North Korea's weapons. Although their performance might not be outstanding, they have significant quantities.
"Here, I'd like to mention that North and South Korea are both making a lot of noise about the situation. However, I don't think a conflict will erupt between them. If a war really breaks out, can North Korea still transport its weapons to Russia? Wouldn't they keep them for their own use? Can they even send their troops to Russia? This logic doesn't make sense. Since North Korea is supplying weapons and troops to Russia, it implies that there won't be a conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Both sides are just making noises to attract international attention. This is just a side note.
"Additionally, this situation raises the question of whether Russia is binding North Korea, or North Korea is binding Russia. I believe it's the latter – North Korea is binding Russia. This appears to be a genuine military alliance. When Russia goes to war, North Korea sends troops and weapons. If North Korea goes to war, will Russia send troops and provide weapons? As part of a military alliance, Russia should. So, some Russian media outlets analyze this as tying Russia down.
"Of course, there's another point, which might be even more important: how much nuclear technology Russia shares with North Korea. That's the situation.
"As for China, it hasn't made any statements, which I think is wise. Let Russia and North Korea do what they like to say and do, that is within their own sovereign affairs. China should avoid unnecessary involvement. Of course, business should continue as usual, and routine aid from the past should still be provided, but China shouldn't interfere needlessly. Also, don't feel like we've been sidelined, just because Russia and North Korea are getting close. There's no need to do anything to pull North Korea in. That's my personal judgment."
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