After the fall of Bashar Al-Assad, UK-based Pakistani columnist Sami Ullah Malik wrote an Urdu-language column examining Iran's new predicament in the Middle East and how it is likely to recalibrate its military strategy to face the challenge of the withering of the Axis of Resistance.
Titled "Iran's Internal And External Challenges: A Complex Situation," Malik noted: "Iran's first priority is to ensure its survival. The country will attempt to change itself, strengthen the remaining elements of the Axis of Resistance, and reinvest in regional relations to avoid pressure from the newly elected President Trump."
"It is also worth mentioning that Iran has become significantly weaker on the global level. Now, it will face the unexpected President Trump..., and on the other hand, Israel has demonstrated how it selects its enemies," Malik, who is an author of dozens of books, wrote and added that Iran is more likely to rely on its nuclear strategy to counter its strategic isolation.
About the 2015 nuclear deal from which President Trump withdrew, Malik observed, "Iran had agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions" but Iran "is now significantly increasing its uranium enrichment to 60%. Iran says that it is doing this in response to the U.S. sanctions."
Following are excerpts from the article, as translated from Urdu:
"History Repeats Itself Again; But This Time, The Place Chosen Is Damascus Instead Of Kufa[, Iraq]"; After Dethroning Bashar Al-Assad, The Defaced Images Of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Qassem Soleimani, And Former Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah In The Iranian Embassy In Damascus Are Reminders Of How Iran Has Suffered Losses"
"Iran's Internal and External Challenges: A Complex Situation
"After the Kufa was conquered again and the head of [the anti-Umayyad revolutionary] Mukhtar Al-Thaqafi was severed and presented to [then Governor of Basra] Mus'ab ibn Zubair, he issued a decree to celebrate the killing of an enemy of Islam. An elderly man sitting in the court smiled. The Mus'ab furiously enquired: 'Why do you smile, old man?" The elderly man said: 'The past came to mind; the present is before my eyes; and I can also see half of the future.' Mus'ab ordered, 'explain.' The elderly man asked, 'Will you be able to hear it?'
"When the elderly man began to speak, the walls shook. 'This was the same court. Ubaidullah ibn Ziyad was seated on the throne. The head of Husain ibn Ali was brought before him [following his assassination on October 10, 680]. Ubaidullah ibn Ziyad ordered: Celebrate, an enemy of Islam has been slain, and we celebrated.
"'Once again, this is the same court. Mukhtar Al-Thaqafi, whose head now lies at your feet [following his assassination on April 3, 687], once sat on this throne where you now sit. When the head of ibn Ziyad was brought before him, Mukhtar Al-Thaqafi had ordered, Celebrate, an enemy of Islam has been slain, and we celebrated.
"'Today, it is the same court, and you are seated on this throne. The head of Mukhtar Al-Thaqafi has been brought, and your order is: Celebrate, an enemy of Islam has been slain. And we shall also celebrate too. Tomorrow will also be the same court. You do not know who will be seated on this throne, but I know only that the head will be yours, and the order will be issued, Celebrate, an enemy of Islam has been slain. And we shall celebrate.'
"Exactly as the old man had predicted, the head of Mus'ab ibn Zubair was presented [following his assassination in November 691] in the court of Kufa before Abdul Malik ibn Marwan, who issued the order to celebrate. When someone recalled the old man's prediction to Abdul Malik ibn Marwan, he immediately ordered the demolition of the court building and ordered that the court be reconstructed in a remote area of Kufa. However, the events continued to take place.
"History repeats itself again. But this time, the place chosen is Damascus instead of Kufa. After dethroning Bashar Al-Assad, the defaced images of supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Qassem Soleimani, and former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in the Iranian Embassy in Damascus are reminders of how Iran has suffered losses one after another and a revolution took place in Syria."
"Now, As Iran Licks Its Wounds And Faces Another Period Of The Trump Presidency, Questions Arise As To Whether The Country Will Again Adopt A Rigid Policy Or Seek To Reengage In Negotiations With Western Countries"
"Amid the broken glasses and torn parts of the Iranian flag on the floor of Iranian Embassy in Damascus, there also lie torn up posters of Iran's supreme leader and all the other key leaders and everyone passes crushing them under their feet. Dozens of such torn images, once considered to be dignified and valorous, today present the scene to be a stark lesson [for the future].
"The turquoise tiles of the Iranian Embassy remain intact, but there is a large picture of the most influential former military leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed on the orders of U.S. President Donald Trump, which has been defaced. The defaced images of Supreme Leader and Qassem Soleimani in the embassy in Damascus are reminders of how Iran has suffered losses one after another.
"Now, as Iran licks its wounds and faces another period of Trump presidency, questions arise as to whether the country will again adopt a rigid policy or seek to reengage in negotiations with Western countries. Further, how strong is Iran's government right now?
"After the fall of Bashar Al-Assad's government, despite his defeat, the supreme leader adopted a bold tone in his speech. The 85-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei, holding complete control of everything in Iran since 1989, now faces the challenge of succession. He claimed in his address that 'Iran is strong and powerful, and it will become stronger.'
"'In the Middle East, with Iran's support, the Axis of Resistance, which includes Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis of Yemen, and Iraqi Shi'ite groups, would emerge stronger against Israel. The more pressure you apply, the more this resistance will expand. The more crimes you commit, the more this resistance will strengthen. The more you fight against us, the further this battle will spread.'"
"Israel's Actions Against Its Enemies Created A New Landscape In The Middle East, In Which Iran Cannot Be Seen Anywhere"; "Iran's Ambassador To Syria, Hossein Akbari, Introduced Bashar Al-Assad As A Leading Leader In The Axis Of Resistance, But When The Time Came For Assad's Regime To End, Then Iran Was Unable To Do Anything"
"However, after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which did not have the support of Iran but was certainly praised by Iran, the situation in the region unfolded in such a way that Iran's government was left shaken. Israel's actions against its enemies created a new landscape in the Middle East in which Iran cannot be seen anywhere.
"Former U.S. diplomat... James Jeffrey, stated, 'All the members of the Axis of Resistance are now being defeated. Israel has crushed Iran's Axis of Resistance, and after the regime change in Syria, it is now disintegrating further. Aside from the Houthis in Yemen, Iran has no significant foothold in the region.' Although Iran continues to back powerful Shi'ite militias in neighboring Iraq, Jeffrey argues that 'what has happened has led to an extraordinary decline of (Iranian) dominance in the region.'
"Bashar al-Assad had appeared in public the last time on December 1 with Iran's foreign minister when he expressed his resolve to deal harshly with the rebels advancing on Damascus. However, after the fall of his government, Bashar al-Assad fled, seeking refuge in Russia.
"Iran's ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, had introduced Bashar al-Assad as a leading leader in the Axis of Resistance, but when the time came for Assad's regime to end, then Iran was unable to do anything for him. It was even heard that Iran had expressed its inability to provide refuge to Assad in his final moments. Thus, within just a few days, the name of one of the most important leaders in the Axis of Resistance was erased from the list."
"The Alliance Between The Assad Family (Which Belongs To The Alawite Sect) In Syria And The Shia Clerics In Iran Strengthened Iran's Power In The Sunni-Majority Middle East"; "Over 2,000 Iranian Soldiers And Generals Lost Their Lives While Serving As Military Advisors [To Damascus]"
"To maintain its influence in the region and establish a force against Israel, Iran spent decades to establish a network of armed groups. This process began in 1979. After the Iran-Iraq War, Bashar al-Assad's father, Hafez al-Assad, the ruler of Syria, also supported Iran. The alliance between the Assad family (which belongs to the Alawite sect) in Syria and the Shia clerics in Iran strengthened Iran's power in the Sunni-majority Middle East. For Iran, Syria was a key supply route to support its allies, such as Lebanon, Hezbollah and other armed groups in the region.
"Iran had also previously come to Bashar al-Assad's support when a rebellion broke out against him in 2011. During that time, Iran sent fighters, fuel, and weapons to assist him. Over 2,000 Iranian soldiers and generals lost their lives while serving as military advisors. According to key sources, Iran spent between $30 billion and $50 billion since 2011.
"However, now, this supply line for supporting Hezbollah and other groups in Lebanon in the future has been cut off. The Axis of Resistance was a network designed in such a way that it would serve as an important asset for Iran and a direct attack on Tehran could not be carried out in its presence. However, this strategy clearly failed.
"After the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria, Iran's chances for moving forward have become limited because Tehran's military has appeared weaker in direct confrontations with Israel in recent years. In October, when Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, they were intercepted and rendered ineffective, though some of these missiles did cause damage to several Israeli airbases. In Israel's retaliatory attacks, Iran's air defense systems and missile production capabilities was heavily damaged. James Jeffrey stated, 'The missile threat proved to be merely a paper tiger. The death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July also became a source of embarrassment for Iran.'"
"Iran's First Priority Is To Ensure Its Survival. The Country Will Attempt To Change Itself, Strengthen The Remaining Elements Of The Axis Of Resistance, And Reinvest In Regional Relations To Avoid Pressure From The Newly Elected President Trump"
"Iran's first priority is to ensure its survival. The country will attempt to change itself, strengthen the remaining elements of the Axis of Resistance, and reinvest in regional relations to avoid pressure from the newly elected President Trump. Dennis Horak, who spent three years in Iran as Canada's chargé d'affairs, states: 'It is a government with strong nerves, with powerful centers of authority, and it can play with danger.' According to him, Iran still possesses immense fighting capabilities, which it could use in war with Israel, as well as against Gulf Arab countries. He warns that the mistake of considering Iran to be only a paper tiger should not be committed.
"It is also worth mentioning that Iran has become significantly weaker on the global level. Now, it will face the unexpected President Trump..., and on the other hand, Israel has demonstrated how it selects its enemies. Iran will certainly reframe its 'defense doctrine,' which previously relied heavily on the Axis of Resistance. It will also reassess its nuclear program and will determine that making substantial investment in this program is necessary for the country's broader security. Iran categorically says that its nuclear program is entirely for peaceful purposes, but during his first term, President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 agreement with Iran.
"Under that deal, Iran had agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. Under the agreement, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67 percent, the lower level sufficient to produce fuel for commercial nuclear power plants. The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which monitors nuclear activities, has stated that Iran is now significantly increasing its uranium enrichment to 60 percent. Iran says that it is doing this in response to U.S. sanctions. For a nuclear bomb, uranium must be enriched to 90 percent or higher. Rafael Grossi, the director-general of IAEA, says that Iran may be doing so due to the losses it has faced in the region.
Columnist Sami Ullah Malik has written dozens of books
"According to Ryad Dolzickov [sic], an expert on nuclear proliferation at the Royal United Services Institute, 'This is a very concerning situation. The nuclear program is now in a completely different place compared to 2015.' Though the experts say that Iran could potentially develop a nuclear bomb within a week by enriching uranium, it would need a warhead to launch the bomb. This process could take several months, or at least a year. Though, we do not know how close Iran is to nuclear weapons, Iran has acquired knowledge in this regard and it will be extremely difficult for them to move back.
"Western countries are deeply concerned about [Iran's nuclear developments]. Dr. Rezarmat [sic], a senior researcher at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, states, 'It is clear that Trump (regarding this) will keep maximum pressure on Iran, but I believe he will also leave the door open for negotiations so that talks can begin again, and he can get Iran agree to abandon its nuclear program.' Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu desires a change of government in Iran, but Dr. Rez [sic] thinks that 'Israel will wait to see what Trump does and how Iran responds. It appears less possibile that Iran would seek to initiate a war.'"
"At Present, Iran Is Facing Many Internal Challenges"; "There Is Widespread Anger Within The Country That Iran Is Spending Heavily Abroad But Does Not Take Enough Measures To Address The Unemployment And Inflation"; "Iran's Younger Generation Is Disconnected From The Islamic Revolution"
"In one of my columns, I have expressed the expectation that, in my opinion, Trump, being a businessman, will find a way toward talks with Iran and attempt to strike a deal. If that does not happen, he will apply maximum pressure to bring it to the negotiating table. That is why I still believe that 'there are more possibilities of a deal than a war.' However, there is also the possibility that if he intensifies the pressure, it could lead to a deteriorating situation, resulting in a war that neither the U.S. nor its allies want.
"At present, Iran is facing many internal challenges. Iran has to choose a new Supreme Leader. Ayatollah Khamenei may be concerned about ensuring his legacy and transferring power in a manner that leaves Iran in 'a stable position.'
"Following the nationwide protests in 2022, the Iranian government suffered a significant blow. These protests erupted after the death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, who was reportedly killed for not adhering to proper hijab. Through this protest, the legitimacy of the establishment of religious leaders was challenged. However, these protests were crushed by force.
"There is widespread anger within the country that Iran is spending heavily abroad but does not take enough measures to address the unemployment and inflation its citizens face. "Particularly, Iran's younger generation is disconnected from the Islamic Revolution. Most of them questioning the government's restrictions. Despite the risk of being arrested, women are appearing in public without headscarves and defying government policies daily. Observers of Iran say that, despite all this, there is currently no immediate prospect of a government change similar to what happened in Syria."
"If We See The Anger Within The Country And The Losses Suffered By Iran In Syria, It Can Be Said That Iran's Rulers Are Now Facing A Truly Complex Situation"
"However, some forces may be flourishing behind the scene that could unexpectedly alter the situation. James Jeffrey says, 'I do not think the Iranian people will rise again because Iran has lost its empire, which was very unpopular.'
"According to Dennis Horak, tolerance for dissenting voices in Iran will decrease further because it will now focus on its internal security. Legislation to impose stricter punishments on women who do not observe veiling will be made soon. However, there is currently no threat to the Iranian government. Though hundreds of thousands of Iranians do not support this government, there are also hundreds of thousands of people who do support it. 'I do not think this government may fall anytime,' he added.
"If we see the anger within the country and the losses suffered by Iran in Syria, it can be said that Iran's rulers are now facing a truly complex situation. In these challenging times, will Iran stop supporting those elements in neighboring countries that have been a significant source of complaints from these neighbors? Surely, Iran has never needed the support of its neighbors before as much as it does today.
"The neighbor's house has no roof; Don't keep your own houses too tall."
Source: Bittertruth.uk (UK), December 28, 2024.