Senior Pakistani Journalist Zahid Hussain Warns that Educated Pakistani Youth are Joining Al-Qaeda, Says: 'Al-Qaeda that is Emerging Now, the Majority of Them are Non-Arabs; Pakistan's Own Educated Youth in Large Numbers are Going to Waziristan'

Anchor Arshad Sharif: "My first question is, you have written on Page 12 of your book 'The Scorpion's Tale' that the Pakistani military and the ISI continue patronizing Afghan Taliban insurgent groups, considering them vital tools for countering Indian influence, even at the risk of Islamabad's strategic relationship with Washington. For how long it has been going on?"

Zahid Hussain: "Look, I haven't said they are patronizing, but it was that they have been looking the other way… And the important thing is that Pakistan's war or the role of Pakistan since the beginning of Afghan war had been that Pakistan had its own reservations, and that is why Pakistan had been supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan... When a significant number of the Taliban moved towards Pakistan [in 2001 after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan], Pakistan did not take any action against them as there was no threat to it. If we go back, in the beginning the Americans had also not considered the Taliban as any threat to them. It was after some time, when the insurgency moved forward, that the Taliban emerged as a threat in Afghanistan. The real matter is that Pakistan's war was not against the Afghan Taliban; that is when they moved towards Pakistan, they got sanctuaries here."

Q: [The interviewer interjects:] "You have said in the book that the Taliban started attacks in Pakistan after 2007; before that, the Taliban used to carry out attacks only in Afghanistan. If you can correct me, you have written... that the 'Pakistan military and the Inter-Services Intelligence continue patronizing.' As far as I understand 'continue patronizing,' and you have also referred to WikiLeaks, it means that probably it is still going on?"

Zahid Hussain: "I think there are two, three things.... I think that what was the policy of Pakistan during the initial two or three years, it was changed when Pakistan itself suffered attacks by the Taliban, and when a 'distinctive Pakistani Taliban' came into existence… I don't think Pakistan is taking any action against the Afghan Taliban even at present, nor does it have any intention to take action against the Pakistani Taliban.[2] We see that Pakistan is continuously under pressure in this regard; but the real question is whether Pakistan feels any threat from the Afghan Taliban or from those factions of militants that are fighting against Pakistan."

Q: "You have discussed the situation in the '90s and also the jihad against Soviet Union. And you have discussed on page 208 of the book that the War on Terror is shifting towards inside Pakistan; and the capabilities of the new Al-Qaeda are quite different. How are these different?"

Zahid Hussain: "Look, there are two, three reasons. The first is that when American forces came there in Afghanistan, the entire Al-Qaeda crossed the Pakistani border and got sanctuaries in Pakistani tribal areas. Similarly, several commanders of the Afghan Taliban movement took shelter in Pakistan… Pakistan also took action against them, against Al-Qaeda. But the situation is… that despite several Al-Qaeda leaders have been arrested."

"Several Al-Qaeda Leaders were Killed and Arrested, But Now the Nature of Al-Qaeda is Undergoing a Change"

Q: [Interviewer interjects] "Zahid sahab, you write on page 210 of the book that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda are more powerful today as compared to 2001. How did it happen?"

Zahid Hussain: "I am coming towards this point; several Al-Qaeda leaders were killed and arrested, but now the nature of Al-Qaeda is undergoing a change. We can say that most of the old days' leaders of the Taliban have been killed in Drone attacks while Pakistan has arrested many of them as well. But the Al-Qaeda that is emerging now, the majority of them are non-Arabs. And Pakistan's own educated youth in large numbers are going to Waziristan and is getting training from there; it is becoming part of Al-Qaeda. Secondly, as far as the militant organizations of Pakistan are concerned, they would be having association with Al-Qaeda."

Q: "Zahid sahab has raised an important issue that Al-Qaeda's focus is shifting to Pakistan and Pakistan's youth are probably being recruited in Al-Qaeda. We are continuing our discussion to know who is the enemy and to what extent they have penetrated in Pakistan, and what Pakistan needs to do in this regard. See you after a break."

[After short break]

Q: "Welcome back. We are talking about 'The Scorpion's Tale,' the new book by Zahid Hussain, which has unveiled how the War on Terror is being fought, and how the war is undergoing a rapid change... Zahid sahab said that Al-Qaeda is also recruiting people from Pakistan. Zahid sahab, what would be the consequences for Pakistan as you mentioned in detail that Al-Qaeda has started recruiting middle class in Pakistan? Your book has mentioned it in detail."

Zahid Hussain: "As I told you earlier about the change that occurred, it is that the militant groups in Pakistan which were outlawed joined Al-Qaeda; and on the other hand, the Tehreek-Taliban Pakistan, which is a distinctive Pakistani group, is also a front organization of Al-Qaeda. And the effects can be judged from the declaration, after 2007, of jihad on Pakistan by Osama bin Laden and [Ayman] Al-Zawahiri, especially after the incident of the Lal Masjid [i.e. a 2007 military operation in Islamabad.]

"See, if we look back on the terror attacks inside Pakistan, we can find a similar sequence of these acts whose masterminds are Al-Qaeda and its planners included Pakistanis; and the executors, or what we call 'foot soldiers,' are from the same militants organizations which had been working earlier in Pakistan and are now outlawed."

"If We look at the Situation in Afghanistan Today, We Find that the Influence of the Taliban is Increasing in 70% of the Area of Afghanistan"

Q: "You mentioned... [in the book] that initially there was a state of denial; and it was after 2007 that the threat by TTP, Al-Qaed,a and other militant organizations turned inward. The same was the case with militant organizations in Punjab, as you mentioned. So, are we still in a state of denial and think that there are some 'good Taliban' and 'bad Taliban'? And how would there be realization at the political level since you are also saying that our military establishment has concerns over Afghanistan [and therefore continues to support militants there] and also as per own your book, relations between Washington and Islamabad are strained over [the issue of carrying out anti-Taliban operation in] North Waziristan. If your foreign policy is being determined by army, your security policy is being determined by army, so what is the parliament doing and how can a realization dawn?"

Zahid Hussain: "There are two or three factors. First, we have to understand why this war came to Pakistan..."

Interviewer: "This is a fundamental question which is yet to be answered."

Zahid Hussain: "First, I agree that it had been due to our own policies, but we cannot reject this point that the situation that emerged in the region is due to the war in Afghanistan. And if you look the war as unwinnable after 9 years have passed; then its consequences have also been directly affecting Pakistan. I am not saying that the situation in our area is solely due to the Afghan war, but the Afghan war and U.S.'s own flawed policy regarding the war and their flawed approach are very big factors for the situation in Pakistan.

"So... the situation we are talking about is that before 2001, Al-Qaeda was in Afghanistan and militants groups were here; and the Taliban were in power, but their integration [with Al-Qaeda] started after 2001. And if you look into the situation now, the most important factor is Pakistan's alliance with the U.S. And the declaration of jihad against Pakistan by Al-Qaeda, or by Pakistan's own militants, [points out as the cause of jihad the status of] the Pakistani government and army as the allies of the United States. On the other hand, it is a very difficult war and we should have done many other things which we are not doing. The real point is that... it is an Afghan war, and on the other hand it is our country's own."

Q: "But Zahid sahab, it appears after reading your book and the argument you give, that it is Afghanistan's own war and we have imposed this war on ourselves, but don't we have any involvement there? We still love the concept of 'strategic depth' and our people pay the cost of war; our thirty thousand people died and soldiers made sacrifices; and we are still ready to fight a proxy war in Afghanistan against India. You have mentioned in your book that there is a proxy war in Afghanistan between Pakistan and India, and Pakistan bears the consequences."

Zahid Hussain: "You are right; but you must consider one more point; and that I am not defending or opposing that it is our war or we are fighting only for the U.S. When you analyze any situation, you must keep in mind all the factors which are responsible for increasing such incidents; and the problem is if we look at the situation in Afghanistan today, we find that the influence of the Taliban is increasing in 70% of the area of Afghanistan; so its consequences are also moving to Pakistan; and Pakistan cannot remain aloof from such a situation."

Q: "... Zahid sahab, you mentioned that in Afghanistan, the Taliban's influence is increasing; and the same opinion you expressed on page 207-208 of your book 'The Scorpion's Tail,' that the Taliban are getting heat-seeking missiles which are used for hitting coalition aircraft. The question is that these missiles which were provided to the mujahideen during the Soviet Era [1980s jihad in Afghanistan], now who are giving them these missiles. Is there a regional or global war?"

Zahid Hussain: "I wrote this quoting WikiLeaks… and this is mentioned in those papers published by WikiLeaks. It is very significant but we can not say with certainty that it happened or not; but this shows that the Taliban are getting support from other sources also. I am not saying that the Pakistanis may have provided, but it is for sure that during the nine years the Taliban's attacks in Afghanistan have gotten sophisticated; and they have got new weapons; and at the same time their activities against NATO forces have increased... It can be judged from the fact that in the last three years, the NATO casualties were more than the rest of the duration and during the current year the number has reached to 650."

Q: "Zahid sahab, we can deduce from your discussion that there is a global war, and war against the U.S. is also in progress, in which regional players are also involved."

Zahid Husain: "Of course. If you look into the wars in Afghanistan, local people were always supported by foreign elements. During the jihad in the 1980s, regional countries had their role in that; and now we cannot reject the role of regional countries in the Afghanistan war. It is bad luck for Afghanistan as well that the interests of various countries in that country are also one reason that stability did not ensue there."

"[The Afghan] War is Turning into a Pakhtun War, and There are Many Other Forces Who Can Use This Situation for Their Own Interest"

Q: "Zahid sahab, we are talking about regional interests. [Taliban chief Mullah Omar's deputy] Mullah Baradar, who was involved in backdoor negotiations for reconciliations [in Afghanistan], was arrested from Pakistan. What were the reasons for this arrest? Have you mentioned these in your book?"

Zahid Hussain: "Two or three reasons are stated about his arrest… First, that he had been visiting this area for a long time [and therefore was captured, in Karachi]. But the reason for his arrest by Pakistan is said to be that he was negotiating with [Afghan President Hamid] Karzai; but I think it is not true. Another reason for his arrest is said to be that Mullah Baradar had relations with Iran, and he was getting weapons and financial support from them, and it is also considered the main reason for his arrest, and is also propagated among the public.

"It also shows that when we talk about the regional countries' role in the situation of Afghanistan, it becomes clear that this is not a simple war; it has many other factors. And I think the main problem is the basic flaw which lies in the U.S. policy for handling the war. And, I think, the war is turning into a Pakhtun war and there are many other forces who can use this situation for their own interest.[3] This is because in Afghanistan, various countries have different stakes and we cannot separate it from other issues related to this.

"However, I think that the basic problem in Afghanistan is that when the U.S. invaded, it didn't had a strategy then, nor does it have a strategy now. Until now they depend on the assumption that they may win the war militarily, which is wrong."

"[In Afghanistan] a Military Win Seems Impossible, while Many Sections in the U.S.... Believe that This War Cannot Be Won by Military Means..."

Q: "Zahid sahab, the game of shifting blame between Islamabad and Washington, and you mentioned that the failure is of the Americans, who believe in military operations...; and a point that you mention in your book is that relations are strained due to the U.S. failure to crack down on militant groups.. [unclear]. Pakistan blames the U.S. that it pushed the Afghan war to our country. Are there any other reasons?"

Zahid Hussain: "Look, at one level the alliance between the two countries is because both countries need each other. But on many issues, their interests are divergent and it is also natural; and the thinking of Pakistan and the U.S. is not similar, especially about the war in Afghanistan. It has many reasons which are different.

"One is that the U.S. policy in Afghanistan is short term – not long term; but the biggest problem for Pakistan which comes to the fore is what would be the situation in Afghanistan in the long term. And this is the basic point on which the differences are increasing. The differences are not due to certain actions; rather the basic reason is whether both countries have mutual understanding on Afghanistan. I think there is none despite the fact that we are allies."

Q: "Do you think that the war against terrorism could be won in the absence of harmony?"

Zahid Hussain: "Look, earlier it was named as the 'War on Terror,' but now America is trying to correct it; and now it is said that that they are doing 'counter-insurgency' there. Now the situation is… what option you have in Afghanistan. A military win seems impossible, while many sections in the U.S., even in their government, believe that this war cannot be won by military means. And if the war cannot be won, then what would be other options?

"This is the most important issue which is not only responsible for the difference between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but also in the U.S. administration [where] a debate on this question is underway. It is also the reason for differences between the U.S. and its European and NATO allies about whether the U.S. and its coalition have any other alternative to end the Afghan crisis as soon as possible."

Q: "Another point you mention is that decisive military victory is not being achieved and the main thrust is on military operations... You have witnessed that the Pakistani army launched many military operation in tribal areas, except North Waziristan. Do you mean that their gains were questionable there [also in Pakistan]?"

Zahid Hussain: "We must differentiate between the war in Pakistan and Afghanistan; their nature is very different. Those who are fighting against the state of Pakistan, their objective is neither getting independence, nor are they fighting against foreign troops. This is the basic factor.

"I believe that… due to the military operations we have achieved success to some extent, and Swat is the example of that where the situation was beyond control and the situation improved after military operations. But to think that we got complete victory there or in [South] Waziristan would be wrong. Because through military means you can only restore your writ in that area.

"But if it turns into a guerrilla war, then you have to do some other things too. You have to take political steps, which include that you have to give an administration and address all those things which insurgents have been using and mobilizing the masses... In many areas of Pakistan, the writ of the state does not exist."

"If You Look at the Network of the Terrorists, It has Spread to All the Cities [of Pakistan], and Wherever They Want They Attack Very Easily"

Q: "In this segment of the program, I will ask you about you drawing the comparison between the statements of General Stanley McChrystal, whom you quoted as saying that this war is a bleeding ulcer, comparing with that of [Soviet] President Gorbachev, who termed the war in Afghanistan as a bleeding wound. Do you want to say in this book that the U.S. has lost this war?"

Zahid Hussain: "I won't say that they have lost the war. But they are also not winning this war. The bleeding ulcer means that the situation…. deteriorates. So, I will say that the war is un-winnable, and I am not saying the U.S. has lost the war; and that there is a difference. You can stretch it for ten or twenty years, but this would not mean that you are winning the war…."

Q: "Zahid sahab, before we go to the next question, is Pakistan losing the war against terrorism?"

Zahid Hussain: "The situation of Pakistan is, I would not say it is losing this war; but for winning it has to do many things which are not happening now. For example, as I said earlier that this kind of war is an ideological war, one that you fight politically too. Actually, as I told you, people now say that it is confined to Waziristan or other tribal areas, which is wrong. If you look at the network of the terrorist it has spread to all the cities [of Pakistan]. and wherever they want they attack very easily.

"So are we capable or have we formulated a strategy for eliminating this network? I don't think that we have any such strategy..."

Q: "Have Washington and Islamabad formulated any strategy for fighting this war politically?"

Zahid Hussain: "Look, fundamentally the political settlement I suggested is about Afghanistan. And as I told you earlier that the war scenario is different in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the reasons are different and the nature is different.

"And now as I am talking about Afghanistan, everyone talks about a political settlement."

Q: "But Zahid sahab, if someone read your book, then it comes to mind that may be a way to peace in Afghanistan goes through Pakistan; and until Islamabad and Washington are on the same page, until that time peace can not be achieved in Afghanistan. And Pakistan is playing a vital role in it, and you are raising a question in your book that if Pakistan is not conducting a military operation in North Waziristan for which the U.S. is exerting pressure, then it would be a litmus test for the relationships between the two countries. How do you see it developing...?"

Zahid Hussain: "Look, there are two or three factors; when I say that North Waziristan has become a litmus test, then it means that the U.S. has exerted enormous pressure on Pakistan to take military action there because the U.S. thinks that the cross-border attacks [in Afghanistan] are carried out from there."

Q: "Zahid sahab, we are running out of time; will the Pakistani army go into North Waziristan?"

Zahid Hussain: "The Pakistani army will go there, but when, it cannot be predicted."

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