Yevgeny Satanovsky, a pro-Kremlin Middle East Expert, is harshly critical of Russian forbearance towards Turkish President Recep Erdogan in Nagorno Karabakh and elsewhere.
According to Satanovsky, the issue is not Armenia or Azerbaijan, but Russia itself. If Russia will swallow its pride in Azerbaijan, it will set off a chain reaction throughout Russia. Eliminating Erdogan's influence is an existential issue for Russia.
The following appeared on Satanovsky's “ARMAGEDDONYCH” Telegram channel and was picked up by many newspapers:
Yevgeny Satanovsky (Source: Globalmsk.ru)
On The Karabakh's Political Settlement, Erdogan Gave The Finger To The U.S., France And Russia
"Well, here we have Erdogan's reaction to the statement by the 'so-called' Minsk Group on Karabakh. [He] rejected it from the outset, with considerable contempt. A political settlement there, according to his authoritative opinion, is UNACCEPTABLE [caps original]. And, what is interesting, it was not [Azerbaijan's President] Aliyev who spoke on this issue, but Erdogan, who practically gave the finger to the United States, France and Russia. Do you have any questions on who is the boss in the Azerbaijani house now? It's easy to guess.
"So, what Trump and Macron are going to do is not our business, although it is already clear – they will do nothing. But what is [Karabakh] to them? - It's not their problem at all. They made statements and that's okay. Thanks for even that. Karabakh is far from France, and even further from the States. But what are WE going to do? Are we going to swallow Erdogan's insult? It will be extremely expensive. In general, insolence isn't something that one should get away with, especially something like this... And the issue here is not the Armenians, and not historical considerations. [Armenian Premier Nikol] Pashinyan is not a brother to us, nor an in-law nor an ally. But if anyone can do what he likes near the borders of Russia ...
"By handing over Azerbaijan to Erdogan and allowing him to wage war on the territory of the former USSR, Russia will overlook a slap in the face that will be worse than Ukraine. And it will catch up with us much more painfully, including within the country. The population is already looking at country's leadership with amazement, because of Donbass. But at least there was an excuse in Donbass: they did not want to fight with the fraternal people. It is a stupid excuse, but that is what it is. Well, they double crossed us like bloody fools in the Minsk agreements [with Ukraine]. We are generally unlucky with everything connected to Minsk [a dig at Lukashenko].
"But if it turns out that the deal is the same here, and we just hum and dither and do not force our southern neighbor to swallow his insolence along with his own teeth... If [it turns out that] we take sixteenth place in Azerbaijan, while Erdogan is number one, then what is our position in Kazakhstan, in Central Asia, in the very same Ukraine (considering Crimean Tatars and military supplies)? And what will our position be in Tatarstan, In Bashkiria, In Yakutia and Altai, where Turks also live? And this is not theory, but reality.
If Our Leadership Wants To Keep The Country, They Need To Stop The New Sultan
"Maybe Erdogan is the big boss for us? Not only in Azerbaijan, but also in our own country (at least in its Turkic regions)? He will not refuse this.
"The old enemy has risen - the Ottoman [Sublime] Porte in a new guise. [It returned thanks to] our own money, our gas, oil, greed and laxity. We suckled him and instilled in him a sense of absolute impunity. Our plane was shot down and the pilot was killed, - no reaction followed. Erdogan got off with [a temporary Russian ban on the import of Turkish] tomatoes. The ambassador was killed, no reaction at all. Erdogan got away with everything.
"We've already squandered money on his country's maritime infrastructure and are going to waste even more: on a gas pipeline, and on a nuclear power plant. In Syria, we are extremely attentive both to him, and his terrorists in Idlib as well. Are we total idiots? Well, he certainly sees us like ones. And he conducts himself accordingly with us. We deserved this.
"One thing is clear. If Erdogan puts his Pan-Turkic theory into practice, Russia will cease to exist. This is not about the Armenians, and not about the Azerbaijanis.
"If our leadership wants to keep the country, they need to shorten the new Sultan [by a head]. They must use whatever means they want, but he shouldn't have a foothold in the region [Karabakh]. His spirit should be absent in the post-Soviet space and, everywhere Russia's interests are present. If they [our leadership] cannot stop him, or does not want to – then that is a completely different subject. But it will already be another story and a different policy (both internal and external).
"Erdogan drew the line at diplomacy. Does he want war? So maybe, at last, we can accommodate him? It's high time! ...