Violent extremism had a banner year in 2024. Across the ideological spectrum, the last 12 months have seen rising levels of hatred and violence, and the landscape of extremism both in the United States and around the world has simultaneously become increasingly muddled and hostile. Traditional ideological boundaries between extremist factions have weakened as hot-button issues – such as the Gaza war, immigration, and economic inflation – offered common ground to those angry at the status quo, and blurred ideological distinctions.
Major events, such as the assassination of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson, the fall of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria, and elections in the United States and around the world galvanized previously opposing extremist forces into unlikely alliances, and opened up new avenues for ideological hybridization and the merging of extremist ideologies.
2025 has begun in similarly deadly fashion: The United States experienced two terrorist attacks within twelve hours of the New Year's beginning. An alleged ISIS supporter killed at least 15 people when he drove a truck through New Year's revelers in New Orleans, and an active duty special forces soldier appears to have detonated a Tesla Cybertruck rigged with a car bomb outside of the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas.
It is clear that effective monitoring of extremist groups and individuals will be imperative for the safety and security of the public in the United States and around the world in 2025 and beyond. The MEMRI Domestic Terrorism Threat Monitor (DTTM) project will continue to report on the trends, trajectories, and developments within the broader Racially and Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremist (REMVE) movement globally.
A key element of MEMRI's monitoring is the regular assessment of the future of the extremist landscape, and the prediction of future threats. Annually, the DTTM provides an overview of the emerging and projected threats the coming year may bring. Naturally, unforeseen events such as pandemics, disasters, rapid technological advancements, or other global events can drastically change the trajectory of specific extremist ideologies or the extremist space as a whole. However, these predictions are informed by an analysis of the current trends and developments within the groups, organizations, and ideological circles that the project monitors on a daily basis.
The following report will highlight some of our team's predictions for the development of REMVE ideology and activism in 2025.
Increased Ideological Hybridization
Ideological Hybridization was the most significant development of 2024, and will likely continue and even accelerate, in many ways, in the coming year. Ideologies such as White Jihad and National Bolshevism are emerging ideological amalgams, and will likely present a growing threat of terrorist violence in 2025. Additionally, the anti-capitalist fervor that has developed since the assassination of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson in December 2024 has made unlikely allies, and may create new ideological groupings among anti-tech and anti-capitalist extremists and neo-Nazi accelerationist movements.
Anti-Tech Alliances
Luigi Mangione, the accused killer of Brian Thompson, appears to have been motivated by a myriad of political ideas, many of which fall on the left side of the political spectrum. However, included in his online activity and writings was a praise-filled review on the Goodreads web site of Unabomber Ted Kaczynski's manifesto, Industrial Society and Its Future. This document has become a foundational text of the anti-technologist and accelerationist movements. The reactions to the assassination – and to Mangione's interest in Kaczynski – have suggested an increasing overlap between left wing anti-capitalist movements and anti-technologist accelerationism.[1]
In 2025, this growing trend could potentially precipitate more violence – either in the form of more targeted assassinations, the sabotage of technological or electrical infrastructure, or in the form of mass violence, such as rioting. Furthermore, the hybridization of these ideologies also presents a very real threat of "lone wolf" radicalization and single-actor terrorism, exacerbated by the mass appeal of the anti-capitalist talking points – specifically, the appeal to individuals struggling with financial pressure or acute distress.
Ideologically, this trend will likely see a moderating of the identity-focused aspects of REMVE rhetoric, and an increase in violent rhetoric targeting government institutions, corporate entities, and infrastructure – specifically energy, communications, corporate, and transport infrastructure.
Attacks Inspired By The War In Gaza And The Middle East: 'White Jihad' Will Grow
Similarly, the blending of REMVE and jihadi ideologies that has been developing over the last 18 months has the potential to trigger real-world violence; REMVE groups or lone-wolf actors may introduce new methods of violent action. Neo-Nazis have been inspired and re-radicalized by the Hamas attacks on Israel and the ensuing conflict in Gaza. Some have attempted to capitalize on the pro-Palestine movement by engaging in outreach to jihadi groups as well as to student-led solidarity campaigns - some neo-Nazis have leafletted at protests and even appeared on mainstream Arabic-language media outlets.
Among the more extreme results of this trend is the rise in "white jihad" extremism, which is a hybridized neo-Nazi ideology, directly inspired from jihadist movements, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Islamic State. Accelerationist groups such as Injekt Division – which has been linked to at least one planned terrorist attack targeting a Texas Walmart – have positioned themselves as "clerical fascists" who welcome extremist militants from across the religious spectrum.
In 2025, the risk of terrorist violence from this hybridized movement is likely to increase as the movement gains traction and the broader anti-Israel fervor increases. The convergence of neo-Nazi accelerationism and militant jihadism provides a framework for individuals across ideological lines to collaborate, combining resources, tactics, and propaganda strategies. This growing synergy could lead to more sophisticated and harder-to-detect plots, targeting both ideological opponents and civilian populations in pursuit of destabilization and societal breakdown. Enhanced monitoring and counterterrorism efforts will be critical to addressing the threats posed by this evolving hybridized extremism.[2]
Anti-Government Sentiment
Increasing mistrust in Western governments, inflamed by hot-button issues such as crisis management, immigration, and identity politics has created an increasingly fertile environment for the development of anti-government violent extremism. Simultaneously, as radical ultranationalist parties fail at the electoral level – particularly in the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, and Romania – white supremacist and ultranationalist groups and activists have become increasingly militant and have adopted more overt anti-government beliefs.[3]
The forms of violence that are associated with anti-government extremism are varied and present multiple threats as we move into 2025. Continuing in the path of flashpoints like Southport in the U.K. and Newtonmountkennedy in Ireland, anti-immigration riots and mass violence will likely persist and may become increasingly violent. Lone actor cases of violence such as the Las Vegas explosion and New Orleans attack are unlikely to be the only such cases this year.
As these dynamics evolve, the intersection of anti-government sentiment and extremist ideologies represents a growing threat to domestic security. Addressing this challenge will require targeted intervention strategies, including enhanced mental health support for veterans, community outreach programs to counter radicalization, and coordinated intelligence efforts to disrupt the activities of emerging militant groups. Without proactive measures, the convergence of these factors could escalate into a sustained wave of domestic terrorism across Western nations.
Growing Ideological Nihilism And Attacks With Unclear Motives
Along with the blending of ideologies that has marked the last year, a muddling of ideologies has also been occurring. While once it was relatively straightforward to assign motive and ideology to terrorist actors, some acts of mass violence are becoming increasingly difficult to define. Recent years have seen the emergence of concepts such as Ideological Nihilism and Mixed, Unclear, and Unstable (MUU) ideologies. Security and intelligence communities have had to contend with an increasing trend of violence without a clear motive.[4]
In 2025, this trend will likely present a significant and persistent security threat, and may result in more deadly and unpredictable attacks. From a security standpoint, effective social media monitoring is critical in flagging individuals radicalizing towards a violent end. Social media platforms will play an essential role in flagging glorifications of violence and violent ideation among at-risk users. The lack of ideology associated with this trend, however, makes it one of the most difficult challenges confronting intelligence and enforcement agencies working in the broader REMVE space.
Increased Use Of Artificial Intelligence For Disinformation And Violence
The rise of generative Artificial Intelligence has presented a litany of new and emerging threats over the last two years, as chronicled by MEMRI DTTM's reporting on the subject. Between the ever increasing fog of disinformation hastened by deepfake videos, voice emulation, and image generation, and the potential for the use of A.I. engines in the planning and execution of attacks – both cyber and kinetic – on infrastructure, soft targets, or government property, the risk presented by A.I. appears to be growing exponentially. Indeed, following the car-bomb explosion by a special forces soldier in Las Vegas on New Year's morning, it was revealed that the perpetrator had used ChatGPT to aide in his planning of the attack.
The technology behind generative A.I., as well as its accessibility and usability, seems set to accelerate. With that acceleration will come increased and more effective use of the technology by extremist groups and those intent on causing discord and violence. In 2025, we will likely see more violent attacks directly linked in some way to generative A.I., as well as the increasing use of generated image and video content to spread disinformation and incite violence.[5]
A New Era Of Conspiracy Theories
A key element of the evolving A.I. landscape is the impact that it has had, and will continue to have, on conspiracy theories, a rapidly growing threat catalyst. A.I.-generated content related to the California wildfires, for example, has demonstrated that the technology can and will continue to be used for the propagation of conspiracy theories related to any crisis, whether climate-related, security-related, or economic.
A.I. is a conspiracy theory force-multiplier, and can lend newfound believability to malicious and dangerous theories including those intentionally trafficked by white supremacists, such as the Great Replacement Theory. The risk presented by these theories is extremely real, and can result in real-world cases of violence. Mass shootings, including the attack on the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh and on a mosque in Christchurch, New Zealand, have been linked to conspiracy theories.
As 2025 progresses, the risk presented by A.I., disinformation, and conspiracy theories will continue to grow. Strategies to combat this ever-evolving threat will need to focus on digital literacy and misinformation inoculation, as well as effective monitoring of both mainstream and fringe social media platforms.
A Shifting Social Media Landscape
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced, in early 2025, that Facebook and Instagram would be shifting away from content moderation and towards what he described as a more "masculine" tech landscape. This signals a continuation of a trend that began with Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter (now X) in 2022. The social media world appears to be entering a new era of deregulation, with even the most mainstream platforms moving away from the content control policies that were enacted following the Unite the Right rally in 2017, the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, and the January 6 Capitol insurrection in 2021.
This shift will likely see the harkening of a new "Wild West" era of internet content, similar to the early age of social media and messageboards such as 4Chan. Combined with the rise in A.I. and the proliferation of conspiracy theories, this new age will see trust in authorities eroding, and safety jeopardized, and will hasten in a new post-truth digital landscape. Additionally, this will create new opportunities for extremists of all ilks to capitalize and utilize this newly deregulated environment for the purposes of recruitment, radicalization, incitement to violence, and intentional dissemination of misinformation.
2025 will likely see extremists flocking back to mainstream social media, particularly as traditionally unregulated platforms – including Telegram – shift in the opposite direction and impose restrictions as a means of avoiding legal issues. While this may initially temper the violence of the rhetoric espoused by many white supremacists and neo-Nazis, the example of X has shown that this rhetoric will slowly ramp up. Platforms may see the extremist talking points seep into mainstream discourse. The effects of this creep will likely be fully apparent only following a tragedy or terrorist event. Thus, platforms, law enforcement, and researchers alike will need to be extra vigilant to the content being shared on social media, and to the overall nature of extremist discourse.[6]
Transnational Extremism
Racially and Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremism (REMVE) has, for a long time, been viewed as a purely domestic issue. Compared to the understanding of jihadist and Islamist extremism as inherently transnational movements, the language of homegrown terrorism and ultranationalist extremism in the U.S. suggests an entirely internal and isolated process, that develops strictly within national borders, and whose effect is similarly isolated.
However, fascist ideology has been consistently transnational since the 1920s - and even in the decades before, ever since fascism emerged as a concept in the late 19th century. Indeed, Adolf Hitler viewed the axis of Germany, Italy, Spain, and Imperial Japan – among others – as the seeds of a new fascist world order, with senior officials of Hitler's party even advocating for an alliance with Britain in the pre-war years, and supporting fascist movements such as the paramilitary Blackshirts in nations across Europe.
This process has expanded and accelerated hugely since the emergence of the internet and social media over the last three decades, and even more so since the COVID-19 pandemic forced extremist groups to adopt a more digital-forward model for recruitment and communication. The MEMRI DTTM has reported extensively on the transnational nature of fascist extremism over the past five years, covering international conferences, marches, training events, martial arts events, and much more.[7]
In the last weeks of 2024, Elon Musk turned his sights on British and European politics, expressing support for ultranationalist extremists such as British white supremacist Stephen Yaxley-Lennon – a.k.a.. Tommy Robinson – and the German political party, Alternative fur Deutschland, which is the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since World War II. This attracted the attention of extremist movements, including white supremacists, neo-Nazis, and antisemites in Europe, and sowed the seeds of an increasingly global white supremacist movement.
In the coming year, this digital transnationalism will likely continue to grow, and to manifest in real-world connections that cross global and linguistic boundaries. We will likely see truly transnational groups and movements – modelled on the likes of the White Lives Matter movement and the Active Club network – emerging and proliferating across the globe.
*Dr. Simon Purdue is the Director of the MEMRI Domestic Terrorism Threat Monitor (DTTM)
[1] For more information on this trend, see MEMRI DTTM Report, Extremists Online React to Arrest of Suspected United Healthcare CEO Killer; Some Praise Luigi Mangione As a Hero: 'I Had My Life Ruined By Medical Problems That I Can't Afford To Fix, So I Love This Motherfucker.', December 12, 2024.
[2] For more information on this trend, see MEMRI DTTM Report, Neo-Nazis, White Supremacists Move Underground Due To Government Pressure – Setting The Stage For Emergence Of Radicalized Offshoot Ideologies Such As 'White Jihad', June 24, 2021.
[3]For more information on this trend, See MEMRI DTTM Report, Following Former President Donald Trump's Indictment, Neo-Nazis, White Supremacists, Antigovernment Extremists Promote Accelerationism And Civil War, And Express Desire For Killing, Execution Of District Attorney Alvin Bragg, U.S. President Joe Biden; Neo-Nazis On Telegram Use The Indictment To Recruit, March 31, 2023.
[4] For more information on this trend, see MEMRI DTTM Report, Uvalde Elementary School Shooter Posted Threatening Images Of Firearms On Instagram, Sent Cryptic Messages About Attack To Unidentified Random Woman; Shooter's Ideological Affiliation Unclear, May 24, 2022.
[5] For more information on this trend, see MEMRI DTTM Report, Neo-Nazis, Antigovernment Extremists, And White Supremacists Use Generative A.I. To Disseminate Misinformation, Memes, And Hate Content; Discuss Potential For A.I. As A Propaganda Tool – Part II, February 28, 2024.
[6] For more information on this trend, see MEMRI DTTM Report, Neo-Nazis, White Supremacists, And Other Extremists React To Meta's Announcement That It Would Cease Fact-Checking On Its Platforms; Some Doubt Authenticity Of The Changes, While Others See It As Admission Of Prior Censorship; Call For Retribution Against Zuckerberg, January 15, 2025.
[7] For more information on this trend, see MEMRI DTTM Report, New Transnational Identity Organization Action Radar Europe, Founded By Flemish Extremist Dries Van Langenhove, Features White Supremacist Figures From Belgium, Switzerland, Austria And Germany, Fundraises In BITCOIN, March 29, 2024.
