One Day After U.S. Draws 'Red Line' Over Hizbullah Participation In Lebanese Government, Triggering Threats Against It And Its Representative, Lebanon Announces New Government That Includes Hizbullah, And U.S. Gives In And Welcomes It

On February 7, 2025 the U.S. deputy envoy to the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, visited Lebanon and met with President Joseph Aoun and government officials. In a joint press conference with Aoun, Ortagus called on Lebanese leaders to ensure that Hizbullah is not a part of Lebanon's new government in any form, stating that this would be a "red line" for the U.S. She added: "Hizballah was defeated by Israel, and we are grateful to our ally, Israel, for defeating Hizbullah." In response to these remarks, the organization's supporters threatened to attack the U.S. embassy in Beirut, as Hizbullah did on April 18, 1983,[1] and warned of "a big internal explosion if [Hizbullah] is excluded from the government."[2]

The following day, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced his government, which consists of 24 ministers. Two of these ministers are representatives of Hizbullah, similar to previous Lebanese governments. Although these individuals are not officially Hizbullah members, it should be emphasized that they were appointed by the organization.

Despite the declared U.S. position, that any form of Hizbullah participation in the government would constitute a "red line," the U.S. embassy in Beirut welcomed the formation of the new government without addressing the presence of the Hizbullah representatives. The embassy's statement read: "We welcome Prime Minister @nawafasalam’s announcement of a proposed cabinet. The Lebanese people deserve a government that will rebuild Lebanese state institutions, fight corruption, and implement needed reforms. We urge drafting of a ministerial statement that helps Lebanon turn the corner and chart a path toward achieving these objectives. We appreciate PM @nawafasalam’s stated commitment to ensure security and stability in Lebanon by completing the implementation of UNSCR 1701 and obligations under the cessation of hostilities."[3]

The fact that Hizbullah has managed to maintain its representation in the government despite the declared U.S. position was seen by its supporters as a significant victory – especially following the severe blows the organization and its axis sustained as a result of the war with Israel, including the killing of many of its officials, chief of them secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah, and the fall of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria.  In addition to Hizbullah, the organization's ally, the Amal movement, also has two ministers in the government, in addition to a third minister that was appointed by the Prime Minister but is close to this movement. Two of the portfolios controlled by Hizbullah and Amal are important in budgetary terms: the finance ministry, held by Amal, and the health ministry, which controls a vast budget and is held by Hizbullah. 

It should be noted that, although Hizbullah and Amal retain a representation in the government, they are no longer able to veto government decisions, as was the case in previous governments. This is because their Christian allies, chiefly the Free National Movement, headed by Gebran Bassil, the son in law of former Lebanese President Michel Aoun, and the Marada Movement, headed by Suleiman Frangieh, are not part of the government.

This shift in the balance of power within the government allowed Prime Minister Salam to pass government guidelines that, on the face of it, limit the legitimacy of Hizbullah's weapons – a move that the organization and its allies would have blocked in the past. For example, for the first time in over 20 years, the guidelines do not include the term "resistance," which Hizbullah made use of to justify its military actions against Israel. In addition, the guidelines underscore the government's intention to implement President Aoun's call for the state to hold the exclusive right to possess weapons, as well as its desire for the state (and not Hizbullah) to decide on matters of war and peace. Furthermore, the government has committed to fully implementing the ceasefire with Israel, and to implementing Security Council Resolution 1701 "in full and not selectively" – a reference to the way previous Lebanese governments dealt with these resolutions.

Despite this, the government guidelines still preserve, to some extent, Hizbullah's ability to carry out military action. They stipulate that "Lebanon" (and not "the Lebanese state") "has the right to defend itself in the event of aggression, in accordance with the United Nations Charter."[4] This likely refers to Article 51 of the Charter, which speaks of "the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security."[5] In other words, the right to self-defense is not limited to the state but is also granted to its citizens, individually or collectively. This ambiguity could open the door for continued armed activity by Hizbullah, either directly or indirectly through affiliated groups.

The new Lebanese government faces many challenges, economic, political and diplomatic, chief of them rebuilding the country after the war with Israel, consolidating the state's control over all of its territory, and implementing the ceasefire agreement with Israel, which calls for disarming Hizbullah and preventing its rearmament. The challenge of rebuilding is particularly difficult in light of the severe economic crisis that has afflicted the country since long before the war.

Despite its significantly weakened position, Hizbullah is likely to oppose any attempt to weaken it further and is likely to use its power in the government and in the Lebanese street to prevent this and to improve its status. In fact, just a few days after the government's establishment, Hizbullah conveyed its red lines to the government when it instructed its followers to take to the streets after the government, in which it is a member, prevented a plane that was suspected of carrying funds for Hizbullah from landing at Beirut International Airport. During the violent protests, which lasted several days, a UNIFIL vehicle was attacked and its passengers wounded. These violent events were reminiscent of the events of May 7, 2008, when Hizbullah gunmen took over parts of Beirut and areas in the Mount Lebanon region in response to a government decision to dismantle its private communications network and to dismiss the Beirut airport security chief, who was close to Hizbullah, due to suspicions that the organization was receiving weapons shipments via the airport and putting up security cameras there.

The Composition Of The Government: The Shi'ite Camp No Longer Has Veto Power

Prime Minister Salam managed to form his government and present it for approval by President Aoun after just three weeks of consultations – a record-breaking time by Lebanese standards. As stated, the government comprises 24 ministers (like the previous government), five of them women. But unlike in the previous government, most of the ministers are technocrats rather than party members.  

The Prime Minister And President Control Ten Government Seats

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is considered an independent, and formerly served as the president of the International Court of Justice in The Hague. The Deputy Prime Minister appointed by Salam is Tarek Mitri, who served as a minister in previous Lebanese governments and as the special representative of the UN Secretary-General to Libya from 2012 to 2014.

Salam appointed five of the government ministers: Interior Minister Ahmad Al-Hajjar,  Minister of Social Affairs Hanine Sayyed, Education Minister Rima Karami, Economy and Trade Minister Amer Bisat and Culture Minister Ghassan Salame. President Aoun appointed three ministers: Defense Minister Michel Menassa, Tourism Minister Laura Khazen Lahoud and Information Minister Paul Morcos.

Hizbullah's Opponents Control Eight Portfolios:

The Lebanese Forces, a Christian party headed by Samir Geagea, has four ministers: Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji; Energy Minister Joe Saddi; Telecommunications Minister Charles Al-Hajj and Industry Minister Joe Issa Al-Khoury. In addition, Kamal Chehadeh has been appointed Minister of Displaced Affairs and State Minister for Information Technology and Artificial Intelligence. Chehadeh was described by the Prime Minister as a member of the Lebanese Forces, but the party stated that it did not directly propose him for the posts.

The Kataeb (Phalanges) Party controls one portfolio: the Justice Ministry, headed by Adel Amin Nassar.

The Druze Progressive Socialist Party, headed by Walid Jumblatt, controls two portfolios: the  Public Works and Transport Ministry, headed by Fayez Rasamny, and Agriculture Ministry, under Nizar Hani.

The Hizbullah And Amal Bloc Controls Six Portfolios

As noted, despite the U.S. demands, Hizbullah is represented in the government and controls two portfolios, and its ally, the Amal movement, controls three more.

Hizbullah controls the Public Health Ministry, headed by Rakan Nasredine, and the Labor Ministry, headed by Muhammad Haidar. It should be noted that Hizbullah has over the years insisted on controlling the heavily-budgeted health ministry. The anti-Hizbullah daily Nidaa Al-Watan claims that Hizbullah uses this ministry to import medicines from Iran and Syria without oversight, thereby helping its patron Iran and perhaps also making profits for itself.[6]  

The Amal Movement controls the Finance Ministry, headed by Yassine Jaber, the Environment Ministry, headed by Tamara Al-Zein, and the Ministry of Administrative Development, under Fadi Maki. The last was appointed by the Prime Minister but is close to Amal.

The Armenian Tashnag Party, which is allied with Hizbullah and Amal, controls one portfolio: The Sports Ministry, headed by Nora Bayrakdarian.

The Lebanese government (Image: X.com/TakeshiOkubo, February 9. 2025)

The Power Balance In The Government

On the face of it, it appears as though Hizbullah's opponents have the upper hand in the present government. Unlike in the previous government under Najib Mikati, Hizbullah and Amal's camp no longer wields a "blocking third" in the government, which allowed it to veto many decisions that require a two-thirds vote. This is because two formidable Christian forces that were allied with it are excluded from the government for the first time since 2008, namely Gebran Bassil's  Free National Movement and Suleiman Frangieh's Marada Movement. However, despite America's objections, Hizbullah is still part of the government, and its ally Amal controls the key Finance Ministry. Moreover, Hizbullah itself controls the heavily-budgeted Ministry of Public Health, which is crucial for it given the large number of its members who were wounded in the war with Israel.

The Problems And Challenges Facing The Government:

The new government faces many challenges, on both the security and the economic levels. Many of them can only be met if the government is able and willing to subordinate Hizbullah to the authority of the state and prevent it from continuing to operate as a state-within-a-state while exploiting Lebanon's resources and institutions to serve its own interests and those of its patron, Iran. Hizbullah's presence in the government – as well as the fact that its ally Amal controls the Finance Ministry, which is crucial to the country’s reconstruction – could make it difficult for the government to meet these challenges.

Disarming Hizbullah

As mentioned, the government guidelines that have been approved include a very general reference to Hizbullah's weapons. They proclaim the government's intention "to implement what was stated in the President's inaugural speech regarding the state's obligation to hold the exclusive right to possess weapons," and that the government will work to fully implement Resolution 1701 and the ceasefire agreement. The guidelines do not include a clear statement regarding the legality of weapons not held by the state or a call to eliminate such weapons.

Hizbullah, for its part, rejects this call. Before the approval of the guidelines, the deputy chairman of its Political Council, Mahmoud Qamati, declared: "The [ceasefire] agreement is limited to the area south of the Litani. Hizbullah will remain strong throughout Lebanon, with its weapons and its political role. We will not give up our resistance weapons…"[7] Other Hizbullah officials declared that it would continue to operate in South Lebanon. The organization's secretary-general Na'im Qassem emphasized in a January 26 speech: "The resistance members have not left the conflict zone. The resistance is stable and strong."[8] Hassan Fadlallah, an MP from Hizbullah, said on November 29, 2024: "The resistance fighters are in the south. We have no military bases, we have no external military features… In the case of war, some... of the military equipment is sent to the south…"[9]

Delegitimizing Hizbullah's Military Activities:

In the past, Hizbullah managed to circumvent the Taif Agreement and the UN Security Council resolutions that demand its disarmament through a clause that was included in the platforms of the various governments enshrining the right "of the people of Lebanon to resist the Israeli occupation, respond to its attacks and regain the occupied territories."[10]

As stated, the term "resistance" does not appear in this government's guidelines, and Hizbullah's opponents interpret this as conveying that its military activities are illegitimate.  However, the guidelines state that "Lebanon" (and not "the Lebanese state") "has the right to defend itself in the event of aggression, in accordance with the United Nations Charter,"[11] and as noted above, this is apparently a reference to Article 51 of the Charter, which speaks of "the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense" in the event of an attack.

This could potentially provide a loophole for Hizbullah to act militarily against Israel, either openly or in the guise of local organizations or "popular resistance," as it did only recently. About a month after the ceasefire came into effect, Hizbullah supporters on social media shared statements by two hitherto unknown groups announcing their intention to carry out armed operations against the Israeli army in South Lebanon. Hizbullah officials expressed support for these groups.[12]  In addition, Hizbullah initiated and encouraged clashes with the Israeli forces by locals returning to their villages in the south after the start of the ceasefire agreement.  

Preventing Hizbullah Shows Of Force And Intimidation Of Political Rivals

As mentioned, Hizbullah does not hesitate to turn its weapons against political rivals and to encourage its supporters to stage shows of force in order to influence the government's decisions and intimidate the population and the state. The government faced its first test just a few days after its establishment, when Hizbullah instructed its supporters to take to the streets to protest the government's decision to prevent the arrival in Beirut of an Iranian plane that was suspected of carrying funds for Hizbullah, which is a violation of the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel. During the protests, which lasted several days, clashes broke out between Hizbullah supporters and the security forces, and the former even attacked a passing UNIFIL vehicle and wounded its passengers. At one of the protests Hizbullah Political Council deputy head Mahmoud Qamati threatened: "We will not allow the homeland to be under American and Israeli control. We will not tolerate this humiliation… We are practicing restraint, but patience has a limit… [Even] if you want to surrender, the resistance will not surrender. It will confront, oppose and reject the American and Israeli dictates."[13] Ibrahim Al-Amin, board chairman of the pro-Hizbullah Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, warned that the movement's supporters could escalate their protests. Hizbullah, he said, has urged its supporters to show restraint, but if they feel that "someone wants to humiliate" the resistance, Hizbullah will have difficulty controlling them. [14]

In late January, as the deadline for Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon approached, Hizbullah supporters held shows of force in Beirut and South Lebanon that included firing in the air and motorcycle convoys that blocked roads and even entered Christian areas. Apparently realizing the damage caused to the organization's image, its secretary-general, Na'im Qassem, instructed the supporters to cease this activity, but his instruction came only a few days after the activity began, and it succeeded in spreading fear among the organization's opponents.

Hizbullah supporters block the road to the Beirut International Airport in protest of a government decision to prevent the arrival of an Iranian plane (Image: Al-Nahhar, Lebanon, February 17, 2025)

Dismantling Hizbullah's State-Within-A-State

Over the years Hizbullah has established an array of civil organizations that provide health, welfare, banking and other services to the public, by means of which it bought its supporters' loyalty and widened its support base. These organizations also serve to funnel funds to the organization's military activity and to disguise this activity.[15] These organizations are still active and take part in repairing the war damages and compensating the affected citizens. Hizbullah thereby seeks to demonstrate to its supporters that it has not abandoned them. 

* N. Mozes is a research fellow at MEMRI.