print
memri
June 18, 2018 No.
7527

Hossein Dalirian, Director Of Military Desk At IRGC-Affiliated News Agency Tasnim, Explains Iran's New Missile Strategy

On June 4, 2018, Hossein Dalirian, director of the military desk at the Iranian news agency Tasnim, which is affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), who is also deputy director of the agency's political desk, explained statements made that day by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Iran's missile strategy. Khamenei was speaking on the occasion of the anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of Iran's Islamic Revolution.

Khamenei said: "Our young people have today succeeded in turning [Iran] into a first-rate regional missile power. The enemy knows that if it launches a single [missile], it will get 10 [missiles in return]."[1]

Immediately after Khamenei's speech, Dalirian explained, on Twitter, what he had meant, focusing primarily on an Iranian response to Saudi Arabia and its ability to destroy targets there in one or two strikes. He called that country a "dwarf" enemy as far as Iran was concerned, but did not mention Israel or the U.S. and their military capability vis-à-vis Iran. 

IRGC Policy Chief Gen. Javani: "America Today Has No Capability To Fight Iran"

Two days later, on June 6, 2018, Gen. Yadollah Javani, IRGC policy chief and advisor to the IRGC commander, attempted to reassure the public about the possibility of an American or Israeli attack on Iran, stating that neither of them had the ability to carry out such an attack. These countries' threats, he said, were aimed at forcing Iran to voluntarily give up its missile capability, but were groundless because Iran's might is so great that the U.S. and Israel fear an Iranian response to any attack on their part.

Javani added: "For years, the Western countries, particularly America and the Zionist regime, have been trying to use threats against Iran and force their wishes upon it. But, in fact, they have no capability of actualizing the threats against Iran, and the most important reason for this... is the might of the [expected] response to a possible attack, and the might of Iran's armed forces. All the experts in the world agree today that any attack on Iran by America or by the Zionist regime will be met with a swift and intense response, and that the attackers will be the main ones defeated. America and the Zionists have grasped this reality, but they are trying to show, by means of media, propaganda, and psychological warfare, that they have the capability to attack Iran... America today has no capability to fight Iran, nor even the capability to begin a new war in the region. Additionally, the Zionists are in a gravely weakened position, and are helpless vis-à-vis fighting the resistance [axis], and will not manage to launch a war with the mighty Iran."[2]

The following is the translation of Hossein Dalirian's tweets explaining Khamenei's statements on Iran's missile strategy:[3]

Iran's Missile Strategy: "Iran Has Become The Leading Missile Power In The Region – The Enemy Knows That If It Fires One [Missile] It Will Get 10"In Return

"For the first time, today Leader [Khamenei] set out a very important strategy in the matter of [Iran's] reaction to any military attack. This strategy was presented under the heading 'Mass Launch,' and the world's experts will certainly devote attention to it. I will explain to you in a series of tweets so that you will understand the correct significance of this strategy:  


One of Dalirian's tweets

"Today, the Leader said: Iran has become the leading missile power in the region; the enemy knows that if it fires a single [missile], it will get 10 [missiles in return]. Although this line is short, it has a strictly military fundamental assumption, and from it we can gain an impression of Iran's new missile strategy.

"Two messages can be understood from this sentence... uttered by the leader of the revolution in his capacity as commander of all [Iran's armed] forces:

  1. [Iran, that is] (the IRGC air force), has a large number of ballistic missiles.
  2. Iran is serious about its response to any type of military attack on it.

"First, understand the meaning of the sentence 'fire one, get 10'

"Militarily, this sentence means that with the first bullet fired at Iran, by any enemy, Iran will fire masses of missiles at the positions of the attacking country. This means 'mass launch' in response to any attack.

"The meaning of mass launch is clear. Iran has already announced that it would attack an attacking country's positions in the countries of the region. That is, if, for example, America fires a single bullet at Iran, all 33 of its bases in some 10 countries in the region will be attacked by Iran.

"In addition to 'mass launch of missiles' being a deterrent strategy, it also has an important meaning – that is, Iran knows that the countries of the region have air defense systems. But it has a specific strategy for confronting the attacker or attackers.


Another of Dalirian's tweets

"The clearest meaning of this is: Although in recent years the countries hostile to Iran have acquired or manufactured considerable air defense systems, there is a limit to these systems' ability to handle a missile attack.

"For example, Iran considers Saudi Arabia a 'dwarf' enemy. Its air defenses comprise a Patriot missile [system]. At this time, if Saudi Arabia fires one bullet at Iran, Iran will attack, in the first phase, several important Saudi air force bases.

"Every [Saudi] base or airport, including in Riyadh, surely has several Patriot missile launchers. In the best-case scenario, these systems will neutralize, in the first half-hour to an hour, 30 to 40 ballistic missiles (assuming that happens) that will be launched [by Iran].

"What will happen if Iran fires another 30 missiles in the second line of fire [i.e. the second phase of Iran's attack]?

"Now you have a better understanding of what a 'mass launch' is –

"[Assume that] the air defense system of the [Saudi] base has already responded to the first attack, and has emptied its missile [launchers], and Iran has already begun its second wave of simultaneous firing of 30 to 40 additional missiles, and they will reach the Saudi base in less than five minutes – while this base no longer has active air defenses.

"Iran's missiles are extremely accurate, and when the second wave of attacks begins, the entire base will certainly be destroyed, and the air defense systems will also apparently not remain operable.

"Furthermore, due to various reasons, I believe that already in the first wave of attacks a great number of missiles will strike their targets on the [Saudi] base.

"Notice well that in the Yemeni missile attacks on a Riyadh base and on other positions, Saudi Arabia was forced to fire four to five Patriot missiles in order to intercept a single Burqan H2 missile. If there is a mass launch of Iranian missiles, it is reasonable [to assume] that the base will be destroyed in the first wave of the attack.  

"It is clear now that if Iran wants to strike, for example, the five main Saudi air force bases, it will need to fire 250 to 300 missiles. That is [using] the same strategy of mass launch that the leader announced today.

"In the example we mentioned, when we implement this strategy, it is certain that in the first day or two of the war against any enemy, including the Saudis, that country will be severely damaged.

"With regard to the Saudis, it can be said that more than half of their 300-350 bombers will be destroyed in the war's first day or two.

"But another and very important point that the leader made today to the enemies in this short sentence is that Iran has a tremendous store of quality, highly accurate missiles, as well as the ability to launch them en masse.

"This is a very important point: Iran has missile confrontation capability by means of mass launch of missiles against an attacker or attackers.

"A final point: 'The missiles' are only one of Iran's defense arms, and if there is a need we can also talk about  Iran's additional means of defense.

"What is clear is that Iran has planned and manufactured a variety of missiles with various purposes, and is #a first class missile power in the region. #Missile might."


Another of Dalirian's tweets.

 

[1] Farsi.khamenei.ir, June 4, 2018.

[2] Fars (Iran), June 6, 2018.

[3] Twitter.com/HosseinDalirian/status/1003702821399736321, June 4, 2018.