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January 22, 2016 Special Dispatch No. 6275

On Fifth Anniversary Of Egypt's Revolution, Fight Over Its Legacy Continues

January 22, 2016
Egypt | Special Dispatch No. 6275

On the eve of the fifth anniversary of the January 25, 2011 revolution in Egypt, much of the Egyptian press has focused on the ambivalent relationship between the current Egyptian state under President 'Abd Al-Fattah Al-Sisi and the January 25 revolution that brought down the regime of president Hosni Mubarak. On the one hand, Sisi regularly presents his rule as a continuation and fulfillment of the 2011 revolution. This principle is enshrined in the preamble to the 2014 Constitution, which refers to January 25, 2011 and June 30, 2013, the date marking the popular agitation that ended with the ouster of president Muhammad Mursi, as one single revolution.[1] On the other hand, critics point to similarities between the current regime and that of Mubarak, including repression of dissent and the return of figures from the pre-revolutionary era to positions of power and influence. According to these critics, Sisi may praise the 2011 revolution, but he also buries it.

Epitomizing this ambivalence was an incident on January 10, 2016, at the inaugural session of the newly elected parliament that represented the completion of Sisi's "road map": MP Murtada Mansur caused a commotion when he refused to take the oath on the constitution in its entirety. Mansur explained that he was loyal to the articles of the constitution, but would not swear to the preamble, since in his view January 25, 2011 was not a revolution, but a conspiracy against Egypt.[2] He was subsequently chosen as chairman of the new parliament's human rights committee.[3]

This ambivalence has been a dominant theme in public discourse in the lead-up to this anniversary, and it intersects with the perennial speculation as to where public opinion truly lies and whether civil unrest may be around the corner. The Muslim Brotherhood, its allies, and other opposition movements have of course always considered June 30, 2013 a coup, and the post-MB state as an absolute negation of the 2011 revolution. The state has taken measures to preclude any possible unrest on the part of these movements on the anniversary of the revolution[4] - including fresh arrests of MB members[5] and leaders of the April 6 Youth Movement,[6] and the distribution of a unified sermon to mosque imams that condemns anti-state protests on January 25 as sinful.[7]

The following are excerpts from two recent columns by Egyptian writers that address the nature of the regime and the state of affairs in the country on the eve of the fifth anniversary of the revolution: 


"[January] 25 Revolution" (image: facebook.com, January 20, 2016) 

Ibrahim 'Arafat: "The June 30 [2013] State Is Perplexed How To Convince Egyptians That It Is The Fulfillment Of The January [2011] Revolution"

On January 10, 2016, Ibrahim 'Arafat, a professor of political science at Cairo University and the University of Qatar, wrote a column in the official Al-Ahram daily warning that so long as the Egyptian state fails to uphold the January 25 revolution in deeds as well as words, the specter of a renewed revolution will continue to trouble it:

"The fifth anniversary of the January 25 revolution falls in approximately two weeks. Five years have passed, and the state is still perplexed by this revolution. The Mubarak state was perplexed as to how to stop it. The Muslim Brotherhood state was perplexed as to how to wrest it away. And the June 30 [2013] state is perplexed as to how to convince Egyptians that it is the fulfillment of the January revolution.

"The relation between state and revolution, whether in Egypt or anywhere else in the world, is always complicated and confused. No state wants to fall, and thus it does not submit easily to a revolution; and no revolution ever leaves a state as it was. Egypt's experience over the past five years emphasizes that just as the state has been perplexed by the revolution, and whether it has been good or bad for Egypt, so the revolution has also been perplexed by the new state, and whether it is with it or against it...

"Since June 30 [2013], a third kind of the state's perplexity at this revolution has appeared. On the one hand, the state affirmed in the constitution that the January 25 [2011] revolution was the root from which the June 30 [2013] revolution sprouted. This means that [the state] is responsible to the Egyptians for actualizing the demands [of the January 25 revolution] by preventing any return to the practices of the Mubarak state. On the other hand, however, for various reasons the state has had recourse to reproducing many of the bases and cadres of the Mubarak state. This makes many Egyptians doubt whether it can do justice to a revolution whose legitimacy it [claims to] enjoy, but whose law it ignores... The state... is still surrounded by thoughts, practices, and faces of the past, those who were hostile to the revolution and who have returned to venture to take revenge on its foundation and on those who launched it. The state will remain perplexed so long as it is for the revolution in speech, but fails to do it sufficient justice in action..." 

"Revolutions... Have A Visible Head That Can Be Cut Off, And A Submerged Body, Which No One Knows When It Might Resurface"

"What must happen is for the idea of enabling the revolution to defeat the idea of pacifying the revolution. It is true that at present it appears possible to subdue affairs in a spirit contrary to the Egyptians' desires as expressed on January 25 - but the results of reliance on [this path] are not guaranteed.

"Revolutions are like states: they have a visible head that can be cut off, and a submerged body, which no know when it might resurface. This is what has been perplexing the state to this day. Has the air gone out of the sails of the January revolution? Has it died down, not to return? Or is there still much of it that [lies] concealed? Every January 25 since the revolution this question poses itself anew, and perhaps it will continue to do so for years to come, so long as the state remains in its state of perplexity... Buying time with revolutions is possible, but it is not a certain prospect..."[8]  

'Amr Hamzawy: The Widespread Arrests "Clearly Indicate The State Of Fear Of Society, And Anxiety About The People, That Has Taken Hold Of The Ruler And His Aides"

On January 18, 2016, the Egyptian political scientist and former MP 'Amr Hamzawy published an opinion piece in the London-based daily Al-Quds Al-'Arabi harshly condemning the path taken by the post-June 30 regime and its repression of peaceable voices of protest, characterizing it as a "Republic of Fear" that is frightened of civil society. Hamzawy wrote that despite these measures, a peaceful movement to rid the country of authoritarian rule was certain to emerge:

"Among the most prominent of present-day manifestations of the Egyptian Republic of Fear's fears - that republic that was brought back to existence by the military-security element in the summer of 2013, and on which the reigning authoritarianism feeds - are the repeated campaigns of arrests of students, youth, journalists, workers, and unionists. They are thrown into holding cells without any defined charges, and for an undefined period. These kinds of campaigns, which expand the scope of repression in an unprecedented manner... clearly indicate the state of fear of society, and anxiety about the people, that has taken hold of the ruler and his aides."

Hamzawy goes on to document a number of cases: arrests of students and other young people from the MB - more than 70 in Alexandria alone; members of the liberal April 6 Youth Movement who were arrested at their homes at night, and whose arrests were only announced after public outcry; and others. He continues: "The arrest of journalists continued, for example the young Mahmud Al-Saqa, who 'disappeared' early this month for a number of days, then appeared in preventive custody before the chief district attorney for State Security, on charges of joining 'an organization founded in contravention of the law, named the 'January 25 Youth Movement'," and of calling for demonstrations on the upcoming January 25..."

Likewise, Hamzawy describes similar cases in the labor and union sectors of society - for example, that of the doctor Tahir Mukhtar, who is also a member of the doctors' union's committee on freedoms. Mukhtar, along with two university students, was arrested and brought to trial on charges relating to a statement from the committee on the right to health in prisons, and also on charges relating to his participation in the January 25, 2011 revolution and other demonstrations. 

"The Open Repression Strips The Reigning Authoritarianism Of The Ability To Claim That It Enjoys 'Sweeping Popular Support'"

Hamzawy continues: "The security apparatuses, in their constant repression that aims at putting an end to any opportunity of peaceful activism on the part of their opponents or those who have suffered from their injustices and violations, rely on the foundation of preventive custody. In 2013 the clause specifying the maximum time of detention without judicial proceedings in the laws regulating this practice was deleted. They also rely on media mobilization in support of the ruling authoritarianism, which falsely justifies its violations as actions of 'necessity' in order to protect the state, stability, and national security. They employ the public and private television channels and the majority of the newspapers... in order to produce and perpetuate this hysterical mobilization. Nonetheless, the open repression reveals to many Egyptians the truth that the security apparatuses, and the reigning authoritarianism that stands behind them, fears them, and fears the possible uprising of their rage... Likewise, the open repression strips the reigning authoritarianism of the ability to claim that it enjoys 'sweeping popular support', and flings the ruler down from the lofty rank of the 'heroic saviors' to that of the 'daily accounts of repression' in order to remain in power. 

The Religious Establishment Forbids Protest With "The Same Expressions They Used In An Attempt To Delegitimize The January 25, 2011 Revolution And To Keep President Mubarak In Power"

"In addition, the reigning authoritarianism in Egypt relies on the official religious institutions, and with allied religious leaders, as machines for the issuing of fatwas and opinions that forbid demonstrations, criminalize peaceful activism, and recycle the worn-out expressions of 'the sin of rebelling against the ruler.' When one adds this to the open repression, the scope of the Republic of Fear's fear of society, and its anxiety about the people, becomes clear.

"A few days ago Dar Al-Ifta' [Egypt's supreme fatwa-issuing body] issued a fatwa on 'The Prohibited Nature of Demonstrating on January 25.' It called demonstrating a crime, and accused those who call for it of conspiracy [against Egypt] and sabotage. Then, the Ministry of Religious Endowments distributed this 'beneficial fatwa' to all the mosques, as a unified topic for the sermon for the midday prayer this past Friday... [These are] the same expressions they used in an attempt to delegitimize the January 25, 2011 revolution and to keep president Mubarak in power... The reliance of the reigning authoritarianism - the same one that claims so frequently to have rescued Egypt from the disaster of religious rule, and to have separated religion from state - on the official religious institutions and on loyalist sheikhs in order to keep society in check, demonstrates the degree of its fear of any possible peaceful activism...

"On the other side, students, youth, journalists, workers, unionists, and other sectors of popular society look upon the spectacle of the frightened 'Republic of Fear'. They observe its open repression and its instrumentalization of religion. They free themselves from the intimidation of the former, now that it has become a routine phenomenon; and they make fun of the incoherence of the latter, now that the institutions and the loyalist sheikhs have changed from one position to its opposite... They know that the advent of peaceful activism to free [Egypt] of authoritarianism is a certainty."[9]


Endnotes:

[1] Sis.gov.eg/Newvr/consttt%202014.pdf, p. 5.

[2] Al-Masry Al-Yawm (Egypt), January 10, 2016.

[3] Al-Wafd (Egypt), January 12, 2016.

[4] According to one report, Sisi convened a secret meeting with his security chiefs in order to review details of a "smart security plan" for January 25. Al-Shorouk (Egypt), January 17, 2016.

[5] On January 15, 2016, a large contingent drawn from several security apparatuses entered deposed president Muhammad Mursi's home town Al-Adwa in the Sharqiya Governorate and arrested several MB members, including Mursi's brother Sa'id Mursi. According to a strongly anti-MB daily, one of the arrestees was responsible for transmitting feeds of MB protests to Al-Jazeera. Rassd.com, January 15, 2016; Al-Yawm Al-Sabi' (Egypt), January 15, 2016.

[6] Facebook.com/shabab6april/posts/10154420560878294, December 28, 2015.

[7] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), January 16, 2016.

[8] Al-Ahram (Egypt), January 10, 2016.

[9] Al-Quds Al-'Arabi (London), January 18, 2016.

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