Chinese Media Outlet Chbcnet.com: 'The U.S. Will Not Be Able To Save Taiwan... Once Mainland China Is Forced To Resort To Non-Peaceful Means To Reunify Taiwan'

An article published May 31, 2022 by the Chinese media outlet Chbnet.com, titled "Analysis Of Biden's Wild Remarks Of 'Military Intervention' From Three Perspectives! 'Taiwan Independence' Is Not Going To Happen," commented on President Joe Biden's remarks at a May 23 joint news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo. During it, Biden had stressed his willingness to use force to defend Taiwan against China, but immediately afterwards the White House walked back Biden's comments.

According to Chbnet.com, the U.S. would sacrifice Taiwan at any moment, as Washington "does not care about the lives of the Taiwanese people." It noted that the U.S. "will not be able to save" Taiwan once mainland China is "forced to resort to non-peaceful means to reunify Taiwan."

Stating that Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) "over-interprets" Biden's comments supporting Taiwan, the article stated: "The purpose of the DPP is only to incite and fan the sentiment of 'anti-China' and 'hatred of China,' thus encouraging the people of Taiwan to vote for the DPP."

Below is the Chbcnet.com article:[1]

(Source: Chbnet.com)

'Is The United States Really Willing To Fight For Taiwan Independence?'

"Biden's wild remarks on May 23 about the U.S. 'military intervention' in the Taiwan Strait sent shockwaves across the world. Although the White House issued an urgent clarification to cool down the incident, and Biden himself also made a 180 degree turn the following day, saying that the U.S. policy towards Taiwan remained unchanged, there could not stop the international public opinion from continuing debating it.

"From the perspective of U.S. policy and national interests, how credible is Biden's statement of 'military intervention' to defend Taiwan? Can the 'strategic ambiguity' pursued by successive U.S. governments really be changed into the 'strategic clarity' overnight by the Biden administration? Is the United States really willing to fight for 'Taiwan independence'? Let's analyze it from the following three angles so as to offer an advice to 'Taiwan independence' elements that it is not going to happen."

'What The U.S. Wants To Achieve Is A 'Double Deterrence'

"Changes in a country's policy direction are determined by choices based on the country's own interests, not by the likes and dislikes of any individual and his or her personality.

"The United States has always been troubled by the issue of Taiwan Strait, that is, whether to formally declare its military intervention to defend Taiwan, especially 'sending troops to assist in the defense of Taiwan.' This imposes a 'dilemma' on the United States. Once adopting the 'strategic clarity' and the commitment to the defense of Taiwan, it is equivalent to encouraging the Democratic Progressive Party to move towards 'de jure Taiwan independence,' which will force the Mainland China to resort to non-peaceful means to accelerate the reunification with Taiwan. The United States will then be easily entrapped in a conflict, which will directly trigger a Sino-U.S. crisis.

"Even if the DPP does not engage in the 'de jure Taiwan independence,' the clear commitment by the United States will incentivize Taiwan to give up its own 'self-defense.' Taiwan will no longer need to spend a lot of money purchasing arms from the U.S. It will not be in the U.S. interests. And if the United States makes it clear that it will not 'send troops to assist in the defense of Taiwan,' the island will be immediately and immensely discouraged and deflated, choosing to do nothing. This in turn will eliminate the effectiveness of Taiwan as a 'card' to play. And the credibility of the United States will be greatly compromised among its allies. In another word, the 'strategic clarity' in its relationship with Taiwan will cause undesirable repercussions to the United States and is not helpful for maximizing the national interests of the U.S.

"Former U.S. President Eisenhower once said, 'Don't let your enemy know what you want to do, let alone let your enemy know what you don't want to do.' His remarks set a standard highly regarded by American politicians and is also considered as the highest realm of 'strategic ambiguity.' It is also the key reason why the United States, both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, has been sticking to the 'strategic ambiguity' towards the Taiwan Strait since 1979. What the U.S. wants to achieve is a 'double deterrence.' It not only compels the Mainland China to think twice about whether the United States 'sends troops to assist in the defense of Taiwan' when trying to solve the Taiwan issue, but also prevents the force of 'Taiwan independence' from being overly provocative and stepping on the red line drawn by the Chinese mainland.

"Generally speaking, the United States knows full well what the Taiwan issue means to China, that is, the Taiwan issue is all about the core interests of China and China will not hesitate to go to war if it has no choice but to safeguard its national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Therefore, the United States actually wants neither a complete and direct showdown with China, nor a fierce head-on confrontation with the People's Liberation Army. It will keep using the Taiwan issue to exasperate and impede China, but dare not to overplay the game. No matter how the U.S. will manipulates the issue, it still has to come back to emphasize the One-China policy.

"Trump, such a wayward person, once wanted to send Kelly Dawn Craft, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, to visit Taiwan before leaving office, but eventually backed down under the intense pressure from the Chinese mainland and ordered Craft's plane back after it had taken off,.

"It was the same with Biden. In August of 2021, the prevailing topic was 'Afghanistan today is Taiwan tomorrow.' In order to boost morale and confidence in an exclusive interview with the ABC News, Biden blurted out that 'if in fact someone were to invade or take action against our NATO allies, we would respond.' He also added that the United States would do the 'same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with-Taiwan.'

"For a while, the DPP got so excited about it and acted like having taken ecstasy pills. But a few hours later, the White House rushed out to clarify that Biden had made a wrong remark and that the U.S. policy with regard to Taiwan had not changed! Biden's bluster was followed by a retraction by the White House. The rough and clumsy performance was exactly the same as the latest one."

'Do Not Be Delusional About American Soldiers Fighting For Taiwan Independence'

"The devil is in the details. When it comes to whether the United States is willing to 'send troops to assist in the defense of Taiwan' we can see by analyzing the latest changes in the Biden administration's arms sales policy over Taiwan.

"The Taiwan military desired to purchase MH-60R anti-submarine helicopters, E-2D all-weather early warning aircrafts and M109 self-propelled howitzers. Although most of the payments were made in advance already, the United States either delayed the deliveries or scraped the sales deals altogether. This caused a lot of hiccups on the island. Chiu Kuo-cheng, the chief of the defense department of the Tsai Ing-wen authorities, found a bunch of excuses to prevaricate. But the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council laid bare everything of the cancelled deals.

"The so-called U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, founded in 1976, is originally a membership-based non-profit trade association to promote the commerce and trade between the United States and Taiwan. It has now evolved into a well-known broker in U.S.-Taiwan arms sales. The U.S.-Taiwan Business Council issued a press release on its official website on May 17, scolding the Biden administration.

"The press release goes like this: On March 14, 2022, Deputy Assistant Secretary Mira Resnick of the U.S. State Department told U.S.-Taiwan Business Council that the Biden Administration would no longer support arms sales programs for Taiwan outside their definition of 'asymmetric defense.' Therefore, it appeared to have cancelled the three arms sale programs mentioned above for not meeting the 'asymmetric' criteria.

"It made it impossible for the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council to earn the 'middleman's price differential.' So the USTBC could not hold back anymore after two months but to criticize the government, questioning its unclear definition of 'asymmetrical combat power,' including what should be included in it. The group pointed out that the new U.S. policy of arms sales was based on allowing the U.S. to dictate what programs Taiwan could afford, with U.S. conducting the cost assessment, instead of engaging in discussions based on what programs Taiwan wants to prioritize. This would make it impossible for Taiwan to fully control the overall direction of its own defense plans and defense budget...

"What kind of shifts of the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan have been revealed by the statement from the USTBC?  First, it is a must for Taiwan to pay for its arms purchases from the U.S., like paying protection fees. But in the future, it will not be like whatever weapons Taiwan wants to buy, the U.S. will evaluate whether to sell them. Taiwan will have no discourse in its arms purchases. It is the United States that has the final say. Second, Taiwan's planning for its military build-up and the direction of its procurement of weapons and equipment must conform to the Pentagon's dictations on its 'asymmetric warfare,' 'Fortress Taiwan' and 'Hedgehog' strategies.

"Why is there such a shift? On one hand, the Taiwan military in recent years has been drumming up fighting a 'decisive battle outside the territory.' Its weapon systems procured and self-developed reflect its emphasis on 'source strike' capability, including missile systems of 'Hsiung Feng IIE' and 'Yun Feng.' Some politicians from the DPP even clamored for the idea that 'the Taiwan military should set its main battleground on the mainland.' But it has been widely rumored on the island that the Biden administration is discontented with this aggressive military strategy of the DPP authorities and does not want a war across the Taiwan Strait triggered by the provocation of 'Taiwan independence,' thus dragging the United States into the conflict. Therefore, the Biden administration hopes to restrain the rash moves by the 'Taiwan independence' through the changes in its policy of arms sales and change the procurement direction of weapon systems by the Taiwan military aimed at the 'source strike' capability.

"On the other hand, the United States keeps communicating with the DPP authorities through various means trying to convince it that an 'asymmetric warfare' is feasible as proved and demonstrated by the Russian-Ukrainian war. The U.S. insists that Taiwan should also move in this direction. That is why the Biden administration has scrapped the three arms sales programs mentioned above on the grounds that they do not meet the requirements of the 'asymmetric defense posture' and forced Taiwan to purchase more individual combat equipment and light and mobile weapons to replace heavy weapon systems. The U.S. requires the Taiwan military to get ready for urban warfare fighting the so-called 'town battles' and 'street battles' with the People's Liberation Army.

"These two aspects mean that the U.S. is telling Taiwan: if a war across the Taiwan Strait is touched off by active provocation of 'Taiwan independence,' the United States will not help you. Therefore, do not make rash moves and do not engage in 'source strikes.' In fact, when Chen Shui-bian got involved in 'Taiwan independence' in 2001, leading to increased tensions across the Taiwan Strait, the then U.S. Senator Biden warned Chen Shui-bian not to go declaring independence, 'because we are not willing to go to war over your unilateral declaration of independence.'

"Besides, the United States believes that as long as Taiwan engages in the 'asymmetric warfare,' there will be no need for the U.S. forces to land on the island for direct combat because the Taiwan military will be able to wear down the PLA by attrition and deplete China's overall power as much as possible. But no matter what and with all that said, it actually comes downs to just one sentence, that is, 'the United States does not want to send troops, and do not be delusional about American soldiers fighting for 'Taiwan independence.'"

'Taiwan Is China's Taiwan And The Compatriots On Both Sides Of The Strait Are Blood Brothers And Sisters'

"Finally, let's analyze it through the recent 'Destroy Taiwan Theory' promoted by certain American public opinion.

"An essay in the May issue of Proceedings, a monthly journal published by the U.S. Naval Institute, advocates that the U.S. should send troops to assist Taiwan in destroying its infrastructure in order to 'save' Taiwan when the People's Liberation Army 'attacks' the island. This kind of rhetoric has gradually gained momentum since Biden took office, such as clamoring for 'blowing up TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company),' and the idea that 'Taiwanese army should fight town battles with the People's Liberation Army' and so on.

"This inhumane rhetoric not only indicates that the United States will sacrifice Taiwan at any moment and make this 'card' an 'abandoned card,' but also it may even completely destroy Taiwan after Taiwan no longer has any remaining value. Who cares about the family possessions and the lives of the Taiwanese people? This is the most vicious example of 'leaving behind a mess' and 'I'll destroy it if I don't get it.'

"Of course, this rhetoric and its way of thinking of the United States actually reflect indirectly its true assessment of the situation across the Taiwan Strait and its helplessness and inability to 'control the situation.' That is to say, it means that the United States admits that the Taiwan military will not be able to resist it and that the United States will not be able to save Taiwan either once the Mainland China is forced to resort to non-peaceful means to reunify Taiwan. Thus, there is no point for the U.S. to send troops to assist in the defense of Taiwan. This is the logic behind the U.S. advocacy of 'scorched-earth strategy,' 'urban warfare' and 'blowing up Taiwan's infrastructure.'

"Taiwan is China's Taiwan and the compatriots on both sides of the strait are blood brothers and sisters whose blood is thicker than water. The United States does not about the lives of the Taiwanese people. The Democratic Progressive Party 'over-interprets' Biden's comments supporting Taiwan, hoping to make the public believe that under Tsai Ing-wen's administration, 'U.S.-Taiwan relations is the best in history' and that 'the United States will send troops to assist in the defense of Taiwan.' The purpose of the DPP is only to incite and fan the sentiment of 'anti-China' and 'hatred of China,' thus encouraging the people of Taiwan to vote for the DPP. I believe that most Taiwanese compatriots can see through them clearly."