On June 2, news reports originating from Moscow confirmed that Russia has lifted its embargo on arms supplies to Pakistan, and is holding talks on supplying Islamabad with combat helicopters. Sergei Chemezov, the head of state-owned Rostec, was quoted as saying: "Such a decision has been taken. We are holding talks on supplying the helicopters."[1] The Russian-Pakistani negotiations involve the sale of Russian Mi-35 Hind attack helicopters to Islamabad.
On June 10, Russian Ambassador Alexey Y. Dedov met National Security Adviser Sartaj Aziz in Islamabad, and at a press conference later confirmed the upcoming deal about the Mi-35 helicopters.[2] The Russian envoy argued that there was no Russian ban on selling arms to Pakistan, but that there had never been any opportunity to do so as Pakistan had been relying heavily on the U.S. to equip its military. Ambassador Dedov also told the press: "The presence of Uzbek, Tajik, and ETIM [East Turkestan Islamic Movement] militants in Pakistan's tribal areas is posing a security threat to the entire region, and collective efforts are needed to tackle this menace."
While some writers see the Russian move to sell arms to Pakistan as a bid to stabilize the wider Central Asian region and increase Moscow's influence, it has also caused consternation in India, which has always viewed Moscow as a reliable friend. Below are excerpts from two articles: one titled "From Russia, with Love" written by Pakistani writer Kunwar Khuldune Shahid in the Lahore-based The Friday Times, and the other titled "Russia's Tilt Towards Pakistan" written by Indian academic Harsh V. Pant in The New Indian Express, a major daily.
Defense Analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi: "It Would Be The First Time Since 1968 That Russia Would Be Supplying Arms And Helicopters To Pakistan; It Is A Case Of Russia Expanding Its Options And Also Wooing A Lucrative Market For Weapons"
The following are excerpts from Kunwar Khuldune Shahid's article:[3]
"Moscow decided to lift the embargo on selling military hardware and weapons to Islamabad earlier this month [June 2014]. The Russians are also planning on supplying Pakistan with attack helicopters in a move that is a colossal foreign policy shift on Moscow’s part, one that looks set to irk New Delhi as well – at least on paper. Islamabad meanwhile has denied that any arms embargo ever existed in the first place.
"Defense analyst Col. Farrukh has dubbed this move a part of a 'global seat adjustment.' 'The Russian manoeuvre is a part of the global seat adjustment wherein all regional and international powers get equitable benefits,' he said. 'Russia has been shoring up Iran, China has been eying the economic corridor [across Pakistan], while India has been a stakeholder in Afghanistan. While Russia selling arms to Pakistan is a move that might seem to bother India, if in the bigger picture it facilitates New Delhi's access to Afghanistan, alarm bells should be ringing in Islamabad."
"Col. Farrukh urged the [Pakistani] government to take geo-strategic decisions carefully and not take other powers' maneuvers at face value. 'I urge the government to revisit its foreign policy book. All strategic decisions should be taken in the National Assembly and should be based on collective wisdom,' he concluded.
"Political scientist and military analyst Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi echoed the popular noise, and dubbed Moscow's move a massive foreign policy shift on the Russians' part. 'It would be the first time since 1968 that Russia would be supplying arms and helicopters to Pakistan. It is a case of Russia expanding its options, and also wooing a lucrative market for weapons and military hardware. Russia is also telling India that if they can find friends among Moscow's foes – i.e. the U.S. – Moscow can return the favor,' he said.
"On the expected backlash from New Delhi, Rizvi reiterated that the usual criticism is to be expected. 'One can expect usual criticism from the Indian government, but they will not be too perturbed. All global eyes are on the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan, and all decisions in the lead-up to that will be taken with the focus primarily on Kabul,' he added."
Col. Farrukh: "There Is No Possible Way That All Countries' Interests Will Meticulously Converge, And Hence Islamabad Needs To Gauge Its Options Carefully And Ensure … Everyone Else's – Most Notably India's – Benefit Does Not Come At Pakistan's Expense"
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"The general consensus among Russian defense analysts has been that the Russian move is targeting both Kabul and Islamist militancy in the region that has caused a lot of trouble for both Moscow and Islamabad. Strengthening Pakistan in its fight against Islamist militancy hence, works well for every global and regional power. However, how Islamabad uses its weapons is what might perturb New Delhi in particular.
"'Islamabad might use these weapons to counter the Islamist terrorism, but once the weapons are in Pakistan's possession it's Islamabad's decision how it might want to use them. It is true that Islamist militancy is the biggest regional concern as things stand, and Pakistan would want to use its arsenal to target its principal concern,' Rizvi said. Russia getting closer to Pakistan would also bolster its chances of having more of a say in post-2014 Afghanistan, and it also reflects the verisimilitude of the China-Russia-Pakistan (CRP) axis. 'I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves,' Rizvi said, when asked about the potential of the CRP axis. 'Moscow won't burn its boats vis-à-vis New Delhi,' he added.
"With Beijing's concern about its Uyghur militants' link to the northwest of Pakistan, the Sino-Russian concerns and interests seem to be overlapping perfectly in Afghanistan. New Delhi's interests lie in a peaceful Afghanistan as well, which at the end of the day is what the U.S. would want as well. When all regional and global players seem to be reaching consensus over what is in the best interest of everyone, maybe no one would have to burn any boats.
"Col. Farrukh is a little skeptical. 'The U.S. is eying a 'combine and rule' policy along the lines of the British 'divide and rule', and this policy is going to create more chaos in the region. There is no possible way that all countries' interests would meticulously converge, and hence Islamabad needs to gauge its options carefully and ensure that … everyone else's – most notably India's – benefit does not come at Pakistan's expense,' he said.
"Love from Russia on its own might be neither a cause for buoyancy nor skepticism, but it is an epoch-making move nonetheless. If Islamabad can play its cards carefully, it can strengthen the much touted and prognosticated CRP axis. A lackluster play here or there, and Pakistan might well see other powers reaping most of the benefits of a peaceful Af-Pak region."
"Moscow Is Negotiating The Delivery Of … Mi-25 Helicopter Gunships To Islamabad"; "[Pakistan And Russia] Are Also Trying To Increase Their Presence In Central Asia; Russia Wants Stability In Its Central Asian Periphery, And Pakistan Remains Critical In Managing The Region"
The following are excerpts from Harsh V. Pant's column:[4]
"Sergey Chemezov, head of Russian state-run technologies corporation Rostec, has suggested that Moscow is negotiating the delivery of several Mi-25 helicopter gunships to Islamabad. Moscow’s ambassador to India Alexander M. Kadakin has tried to justify this by suggesting that Russia had never imposed any arms embargo on Pakistan and that its technical and military cooperation with the country dates back to the 1960s. This has angered sections of the Indian foreign policy establishment, but this is something that New Delhi should have seen coming.
"In an attempt to broaden its strategic space after the withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan post-2014, Russia has been making concerted attempts to reach out to Pakistan. Pakistan Army's then-chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani visited Russia in October 2012 in a renewed attempt to improve relations with Moscow. His visit had come after the cancellation of the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pakistan. This would have been the first-ever visit of a Russian president to Pakistan and, as such, was loaded with significance. Putin was also to participate in a quadrilateral meeting on Afghanistan with leaders of Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. In place of Putin, his foreign minister was sent to Pakistan. But despite that, the two nations continued to make efforts to reach out to each other.
"As NATO forces prepare to leave Afghanistan, new alignments of regional powers are emerging. Pakistan-Russia ties are also taking a new turn, and this holds great significance for India and the South Asian region. Pakistan's efforts to improve its relationship with Russia since the deterioration in relations between Pakistan and the United States have been evident for some time. Pakistan's former president Asif Ali Zardari had visited Russia in May 2012, and the Russian president's special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, visited Pakistan the following month. Islamabad finds itself with few friends across the globe. Even China has been circumspect in what it says it can offer its 'all weather friend.' Pakistan hopes Russia will start selling it more substantial defense equipment as well.
"Both countries are also trying to increase their presence in Central Asia. Russia wants stability in its Central Asian periphery, and Pakistan remains critical in managing the region. Moscow's outreach to Islamabad is an attempt to get a handle on the regional dynamic. Russia has taken note of Indian foreign policy's changing priorities and the recent downturn in U.S.-Pakistan ties. The U.S.-India rapprochement has been problematic for Russia. As India moves away from Russia, especially as its dependence on defense equipment decreases, Moscow is also looking for alternatives. Moscow also recognizes the importance of Pakistan in restoring stability to a post-2014 Afghanistan and larger Central Asia.
"So there are various factors at work here in this outreach. It was Putin who had publicly endorsed Pakistan's bid to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and had offered Russian help in managing Pakistan's energy infrastructure. He went on to suggest that Russia views Pakistan as a reliable and very important partner."
"Russia's Gazprom Wants To Invest In The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline [Mediated By U.S.]"; "Russia Deals With India On A Number Of Levels, But Their Partnership Could Be Jeopardized If Pakistan Becomes A Major Priority For Moscow"
"Russia's Gazprom wants to invest in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline [which is mediated by the U.S.]. Meanwhile, though Russia has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the externalities from the U.S.-India civilian nuclear energy cooperation pact, there have been rumblings in Moscow regarding the manner in which the Koodankulam nuclear project has been handled by New Delhi and because of the civil nuclear liability law of India which makes India an unattractive market for the Russian nuclear sector.
"After deciding to ignore Pakistan for decades in its arms sales matrix, Moscow has now decided to gradually start weapons sales to Pakistan. Russia is the world's second largest arms exporter with a 24 percent share of the trade, surpassed only by the U.S., which controls almost 30 percent of the global arms market. India continues to account for over 50 percent of Russian arms sales, but New Delhi has diversified its suppliers. As the arms market becomes a difficult place for Russia to navigate, with China deciding to produce its own weapons rather than procuring them from Russia, Moscow needs new buyers. India's move away from Russia has been gradual but significant. The Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft deal with French Rafale was viewed as big a setback to Russia as it was to the U.S.
"Defense sales to Pakistan could open up a potentially new and open-ended market for Russia as the appetite in Washington to sustain Pakistan's military-industrial declines dramatically. Defense cooperation as envisaged by the two sides may involve joint military exercises, exchange of personnel, and defense sales. There are clear limits here. Moscow can never substitute Washington as far as aid and defense support to Pakistan is concerned. It is severely constrained in what it can do, and Pakistan's needs are huge. It is unlikely that Russia will emerge as a major benefactor, but Pakistan wants to show the U.S. that it has other options. In the past, Moscow has been very critical of Pakistan's military establishment's propensity to use extremist groups to further their nation's strategic ends. And it remains worried about this tendency, so the pressure on Pakistan will continue.
"The Russian establishment also feels strongly about the possibility of nuclear technology falling into the hands of extremists in Pakistan and has been very vocal about this threat. Nor would Moscow like to share its defense technology with Pakistan to the extent that it alienates India, one of its largest markets for defense equipment. Russia deals with India on a number of levels, but their partnership could be jeopardized if Pakistan becomes a major priority for Moscow. Whatever shape Russia-Pakistan ties take eventually, the fact that Moscow is reaching out to Pakistan and shaping new alignments in South Asia exemplifies Pakistan's centrality amidst regional flux, and how most regional states are now trying to hedge their bets in an ever-evolving strategic environment. Time has also come to move away from the tired old discourse on Russia being India’s 'age-old friend' and to bring some clear-headed sensibility in Delhi's dealings with Moscow."
Endnotes:
[1] Dawn.com (Pakistan), June 2, 2014. The original English of the articles used in this dispatch has been mildly edited for clarity and standardization.
[2] The News (Pakistan), June 11, 2014.
[3] Thefridaytimes.com (Pakistan), June 20, 2014.
[4] The New Indian Express (India), June 12, 2014.
