memri
January 4, 2012 Special Dispatch No. 4407

Al-Arabiya Director: Money Will Not Silence the Needy; 2012 Will See Further Revolutions in the Arab World

January 4, 2012
Special Dispatch No. 4407

'Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed, Al-Arabiya director and former editor of the London daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, has published an article titled "Fasten Your Seat Belts – The Revolutions Will Continue," in which he warned that 2012 is likely to see further revolutions in the Arab world, in light of the economic crises that are troubling the region and the world at large. He added that the financial benefits that the Gulf countries are granting their citizens will not keep them satisfied for long, and that if these countries truly wish to avoid revolution they must enact political reforms.

The following are excerpts from his article.[1]

An Increase in Bread Prices will Cause Another Round of Arab Uprisings

"Four months from now, the amount of money left in Egypt's Central Bank will be five billion dollars. The [Egyptian] government, whether headed by the Muslim Brotherhood or by the [Supreme Council of] the Armed Forces, will not be able to touch this money, because it is a reserve. One morning, millions of Egyptians will discover that the price of bread has shot up by 70%, and so have the prices of other subsidized products. In some sectors, there will be no money to pay the salaries of civil servants. The worst of it is that there will be no solutions, no [financial] aid, and no [international] foundations [that can help], because most of the Western countries are heading for bankruptcy, and the Gulf countries have burdened themselves with enormous financial commitments to their own citizens, in an attempt to stave off revolutions within their [own] borders.

"Tunisia will face similar problems, because its income from tourism, [foreign] aid, and investments is down. As for Yemen, I believe it is slightly luckier, since the role of the state [there] was limited to begin with..."

"The Syrians are Facing Immense Dangers… Should the Opposition Fail to Form a Leadership that Can Unite the Country Before the [Assad] Regime Collapses"

"[But] the Syrian regime – which, like the Brazilian national [soccer] team, has been standing strong and aggressive – is certainly about to run out of luck. Many are contemplating the end of the Assad regime without having any idea what Syria will look like without it. The Syrians are facing immense dangers, [including] struggles outside Syria over [the country's fate], as well as the threat of internal disunity, should the opposition fail to form a leadership that can unite the country before the [Assad] regime collapses.

"[Rashed] Al-Ghannouchi, [head of the Al-Nahda party that won the Tunisian elections], is said to have predicted that 2012 will be the year of [revolutions] in the [Arab] monarchies, namely Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the Gulf [states]. It's true that nobody is protected from revolution, unless he is dead – but it all depends on the ability of the regimes to handle their crises. I agree that the monarchies, which managed to [survive] the first year of revolutions, are now facing a more difficult year."

"Can Money Really Dilence the Needy? The [Financial Benefits] will Probably Reduce the Complaints, But Not for Long"

"Morocco has opted for political reform because it is the easiest and cheapest [solution]. It handed the government over to the Islamic oppositionist organization that won the elections, which never dreamt [of coming to power]... As for Jordan, it has long been experiencing street [protests] that have intensified along with the [Arab] revolutions. [Jordan has the Muslim] Brotherhood, a fragmented Palestinian [public], and Jordanians who complain of [social and political] exclusion. [It also has to deal with] Israel, which is making its life difficult by aspiring to take over the West Bank. [Israel] knows this is its only chance to destroy the idea of the [Palestinian] state, which threatens to become a reality within a year.

"[As for] the Gulf, it is a welter of contradictions. It is the most advanced [Arab] region in terms of education and integration in the developed world, yet it is the least advanced region in terms of its political institutions. Were it not for [the Gulf's] economic prosperity, this situation would have been unsustainable – and that is why all these states have increased their [financial] commitment to their citizens. Some, like Qatar, have doubled [employees'] salaries, despite the negative aspects this might have, and others, such as Saudi Arabia, have renewed unemployment payments to millions of unemployed [citizens] and have promised mortgages, though they cannot meet the enormous demand. Yet others, like Oman, have made significant changes and dismissed unworthy politicians. But can money really silence the needy?

"The [financial benefits] will probably reduce the complaints, but not for long. If the Gulf states want to stave off [the revolutions], they must take the path of political reforms. If they do not, the year 2012 will be very dangerous for them. [They must] hold municipal and parliamentary elections, decentralize [their systems], and act transparently. Bahrain, which stands at a regional crossroads and faces a difficult political and sectarian [situation], needs courage in order to meet the demand [for reforms], and must act wisely in order to withstand the winds blowing from Iran.

"The [coming] year will be difficult. All the [Arab] states – those that have undergone revolutions and those still fearing a revolution – should fasten their seat belts, because I believe it will be the most dangerous of the years ahead."

Endnote:

[1] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), January 3, 2012.

Share this Report: