The following report is now a complimentary offering from MEMRI's Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM). For JTTM subscription information, click here.
Attacks in Jammu & Kashmir and a July 14, 2024 incident in which Indian security forces killed three militants who were trying to enter Jammu & Kashmir from Pakistan along the Line of Control (LoC) are recent examples of how violence continues in the area. The 740-kilometer LoC and a shorter stretch of 192-kilometer International Border (IB) divide Jammu & Kashmir between India and Pakistan.
After the Narendra Modi government quashed Article 370 of the Constitution of India, which had granted special status to Jammu & Kashmir and reduced it to the status of a federally ruled Union Territory, it was expected that terrorism would be eliminated from the state, but the results are mixed, as terrorists are finding new routes through the mountainous terrain and attacking targets in the Hindu-dominated Jammu region. In a recent report, The Hindu, a major Indian daily, analyzed recent trends in Jammu & Kashmir.
Following are excerpts from the report:
"While Terror Incidents Have Been Common In The Kashmir Valley, The Resurgence Of Militant Activity In The Jammu Belt [Inhabited By The Hindu Majority] That Has Remained Free Of Such Incidents In The Past Two Decades, Has Sent Alarm Bells Ringing"
"On July 8, five Army soldiers were killed and five injured as two Army vehicles were ambushed by militants on a hilly tract in the Kathua district of Jammu and Kashmir. This was not an isolated incident. From June 9, five terror strikes have occurred in the Jammu division of the Union Territory [i.e., federally-ruled territory of Jammu & Kashmir], in which eight security personnel and 10 civilians have been killed.
"Is a new pattern emerging?
"The attacks follow a pattern which suggest concerted attempts to revive militancy in the Jammu region since the past three years – in the Chenab Valley comprising Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban, Kathua, Udhampur and Reasi districts and south of the Pir Panjal comprising Rajouri and Poonch districts. While terror incidents have been common in the Kashmir Valley, the resurgence of militant activity in the Jammu belt [inhabited by the Hindu majority] that has remained free of such incidents in the past two decades, has sent alarm bells ringing among the security establishment. This region was a hotbed of militancy in the late 1990s and the early 2000s.
"What does the data show?
"Since 2021, the Jammu region has witnessed 31 terror incidents in which 47 security forces and 19 civilians have been killed other than 48 terrorists who were killed in various encounters. The Kashmir Valley, meanwhile, reported 263 terror incidents in which 68 security forces and 75 civilians were killed. As many as 417 alleged terrorists have also been killed in the [Kashmir] Valley since 2021. A plain reading of numbers shows that incidents in Jammu remain far fewer than the Valley, yet it is the frequency and the nature of attacks, targeting pilgrims and security forces, that is worrying.
"What could be the possible reasons?
"The Hindu spoke with multiple officials who offered various reasons for the recurring ambush of security forces and other incidents of violence. After the 2020 Galwan clashes [with the Chinese army] in eastern Ladakh, in which 20 [Indian] soldiers were killed, a large contingent of the army was pulled out of Jammu and deployed along the China border.
"This led to the thinning of the security grid, making the area vulnerable, pointed out security experts. 'Inimical elements in the neighborhood want to engage and exhaust us at both the fronts – the western (Pakistan) and northern (China) borders as part of a design,' a top security official said. As there is a heightened state of alert in the Kashmir Valley and little leg room for [Pakistani] state-sponsored terrorists, it is convenient to launch terror attacks in Jammu where the guard is relatively down.
"Post-reading down of Article 370 [of the Indian Constitution] in J&K in August 2019 and based on indicators such as zero stone-throwing events, no strikes, and a boom in tourism, the government has claimed huge success in the Kashmir Valley in terms of the overall security scenario.
"'Reviving terrorism in [Hindu-dominated] Jammu upsets this narrative. Another possibility is that (militants are trying) to stabilize cadres in the Kashmir Valley while they rake up insecurities in Jammu,' said another official. The demography of the area is such that the attacks could flare up communal [religious] tensions too, leading to social unrest."
"There Are Around 20-25 Hardened Militants Who Are Likely To Have Infiltrated From Pakistan. Their Activity Has Been Noticed Around 40-50 Km From The Border"
"Is there an estimate of the number of terrorists active in the region?
"According to various estimates, there are around 20-25 hardened militants who are likely to have infiltrated from Pakistan. Their activity has been noticed around 40-50 km from the border. There are likely two groups, one of them is active in the Poonch-Rajouri axis in the west, and the other in the Kathua-Doda-Basantgarh belt in the east. In the Kathua belt, they are operating in a grid of 30-40 sq km, the investigation suggests. Difficult terrain, forested tracts, poor quality of roads and patchy mobile connectivity are some of the challenges.
"How is the infiltration happening?
"The 192-km international border (IB) along Jammu is secured by the Border Security Force (BSF) while the 740-km Line of Control (LoC), the effective border in the Kashmir Valley and parts of Jammu, is under the operational control of the army. Officials said though measures are in place, tough terrain and forested areas along the LoC and vulnerable patches along the IB may have been used for fresh infiltration. An official pointed out that the attacks in the Kathua belt, including the July 8 ambush, falls on an old infiltration route used by militants two decades ago. 'As terrorism ebbed, this route became defunct, it appears to have been revived,' said the official.
"What about local support to terrorists?
"On June 19, the J&K Police arrested a local, Hakam Din (aged 45), for allegedly harboring the terrorists who attacked the bus carrying pilgrims in Reasi on June 9. Ten pilgrims lost their lives in the attack. However, the evidence of a larger support is not conclusive. 'Earlier, the security forces deployed here had direct communication with the locals which led to quick flow of information regarding any suspicious movement. A whole generation that fought the terrorists are in their 60s and 70s now. There is no such connect with the younger generation; it will take time to build that trust with the civilians,' the official said.
"The Village Defence Guards/Committees (VDGs) are also being revived since December 2022. The training has gathered pace after seven Hindus, including two children, were killed on January 1-2, 2023, in Dangri in a targeted attack at their homes by unidentified terrorists. Around 30,000 weapons are estimated to be with civilians in Poonch, Rajouri, Samba, Doda and Kishtwar districts. They were distributed to civilians by the local administrations in various phases since 1995 when militancy was at its peak in J&K. The VDGs had to be discontinued amid allegations of crimes such as abduction and rape committed by the members. In 2003, the army had launched Operation Sarp Vinaash near Hilkaka in the Poonch sector. In the aerial attacks, more than 60 terrorists, who had entrenched themselves in bunkers and trenches in the forest, were killed..."
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