Amid Rumours Of Possible Ceasefire In Ukrainian War, Russian Ultranationalist Extremist Groups Are Divided

Against the possibility of a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, some Russian ultra-nationalist and extremist groups seek the continuation of hostilities. These groups recall the failure of the 2014 Minsk Accords, when negotiators agreed to a 12-part ceasefire agreement involving a prisoner exchange, humanitarian assistance, and withdrawal of heavy weapons from disputed areas. The agreement quickly broke down after both sides allegedly violated the terms.

However, voices critical of the extreme nationalist groups are rising in domestic politics, and the State Duma has moved to criminalize incitement of ethnic hatred. Nationalist movements fear betrayal of the ideals of a "Russian World," and possible repression of their groups.

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Rise Of Xenophobia And Anti-Migrant Agendas

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, inter-ethnic tensions in Russia have been on the rise. The military hostilities, a lower standard of living, and recent acts of terror (in which natives from Central Asia were involved) have intensified the level of xenophobia in the country. Animosity has been directed mainly towards Romani people, Ukrainians, natives of Central Asian Republics, and Jews. The authorities and official state media do not shy away from anti-migrant and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. Senior officials, including the president and spiritual leaders of the country's main denominations, openly discuss migration problems. For instance, one religious leader has repeatedly spoken out about the dangers of Russia's current migration policy, saying that the "disproportionate replacement of the indigenous population with migrants" poses an "undoubted threat to the Russian world, the core of which is Orthodoxy." In turn, the State Duma has drastically tightened migration regulations.

Unsurprisingly, the anti-migrant rhetoric has also been enthusiastically adopted by nationalist and radical groups – more easily than in years past, because the topic is now within the permitted field of public political discourse. For example, many nationalist Telegram channels highlight crimes involving migrant workers or non-Russians. In these crimes, members of the "Russian Community" participate in "anti-migrant raids" and send their "druzhinniks" (people's militias) to help Russians in clashes involving non-Slavs.

In this context, prominent nationalist groups are considered the "Russian Community." These groups usually have a mix of pro-Putin, nationalist and statist views, with some also appropriating monarchist and Christian Orthodox narratives.

Some experts argued that anti-migrant tensions are artificially created, to a certain extent. For instance, one Telegram channel pointed to poor migration laws and wrote: "The anti-migrant demand is artificially created; it is a reflection of the security forces' own miscalculations, which they cover up with mass hysteria."

A screenshot of a February 12 post by a neo-Nazi Telegram channel. Accompanying the post is a video clip showing vandalism and attacks on non-Slavic people. The text of the post reads: "Churkish migrants have been outlawed ['churka' is a racial slur for Turkic people]. The self-designated guardians of order are engaged in raids expelling them with [pepper] spray and improvised objects [i.e., improvised arms such as emergency hammers] beyond the borders of great Rus."

Public Criticism Of Nationalist Groups Begins

At the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, a Russian government official lashed out, heavily criticizing the nationalist movements. First, he criticized the sharp anti-migrant stance of the Russian nationalists' movements, saying that these groups are preparing "stormtrooper columns" that will start with the persecution of non-Russians and then "it will be the turn of the wrong Slavs." This, according to the deputy, will prompt a rise of separatist movements in the regions and the appearance of armed militias to protect the population from the nationalists. He, however, argued that this is the result of subversive activity of the "enemy" (probably meaning the United States, as the party holds staunchly anti-U.S. positions).

He continued to make similar statements. For instance, commenting on the murder of a female taxi driver in the Chelyabinsk region, in which two Romani brothers were suspects, he argued that the murder could have been committed deliberately to destabilize the situation. (The murder caused a wide public outcry and anti-Romani pogroms in the region.)

Later, the deputy claimed that the Union of the Russian People had played a principal role in the collapse of the Russian Empire, which caused indignation among several monarchist and nationalist groups. In one of his streams, the deputy argued that the Russian state, from its beginning, had been multinational, stating: "Those who advocate ethnic division are enemies of the state ... Accordingly, the state fights with them ... However, now for some reason this fight has weakened by an order of magnitude." The deputy noted that once the state strengthens, the people who advocate ethnic division "will at best all be jailed, and if there will be some bloody events, they will be shot like mad dogs." These and many other similar statements by Fedorov caused a wide outcry and resentment in nationalist communities. He even received death threats from an infamous militia.

A screenshot of a January 8 post by the militia's Telegram channel. Accompanying the post is a video clip of the deputy, dressed in military fatigues, criticizing nationalist groups in Russia. The post reads: "Look how this son of a whore cries out. Russian nationalists themselves can slaughter him like a dog and nothing will happen to them (they won't send us any further than the front line."

The deputy was also heavily criticized by the administrator of a nationalist Christian Orthodox Telegram channel. In one of his posts, the admin dubbed the deputy "guru of schizo-guards and lord of the homeless people" and stated that group is being used to discredit "Russian patriotism with these dressed clowns, bringing normal guardianship [views] to the grotesque." The admin claims that unnamed "internal Russophobes" use the deputy and his group "as a battering ram against the Russian national movement." The nationalist Christian Orthodox Telegram channel implies that very influential people are behind the deputy.

A screenshot of a February 10 post by the nationalist Christian Orthodox Telegram channel depicting anti-American rallies. The photos attached to the post show activists holding printed materials and St. George ribbons, as well as a car with a model of a rocket with the inscription: "Thanks to the grandpa for the rocket, [advance to Washington!]." The post mockingly notes: “[What a truly] serious combat squads of old ladies! Trump probably hid in horror under the table in the Oval Office. He realized that America would be screwed if these old mouths scold his army."

Fears Of Nationalist Groups Start To Materialize

Despite the ridicule of the deputy, his words seem to have touched deep fears in the nationalist community about the state's possible pivot away from the right-wing agenda. The upcoming legal changes canceling the offense under Article 282, "Incitement to hatred or enmity, as well as humiliation of human dignity" came as yet another alarm for Russian nationalists. Article 282 of the Criminal Code is known by its popular name, "Russian Article," due to the large number of nationalists charged under it: In 2019, when the offense, or administrative prejudice, was initially introduced, convictions under this article decreased greatly.