Likely contenders for Afghan Presidency in 2014 (from top left to right): Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad, Qayyum Karzai, Hanif Atmar, Omar Daudzai, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai – image courtesy: Pajhwok.com
Ahead of the 2014 Afghan president elections, an Afghan website has published a report identifying likely contenders for the top Afghan constitutional position. The following are excerpts from the report:[1]
"Hamid Karzai's Brother Qayyum Karzai, National Coalition Of Afghanistan Leader Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Right & Justice Party Chief Hanif Atmar, And Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad Are Expected To Run"
"Several people, including President Hamid Karzai's brother Qayyum Karzai, National Coalition of Afghanistan leader Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Right & Justice party chief Hanif Atmar, and [Afghan-American citizen and former U.S. envoy to Kabul] Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad are expected to run for the top constitutional office [of Afghan president].
"A source… [said that] High Office of Anti-Corruption… head Dr. Azizullah Ludin, Security Transition Commission Chairman Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, Education Minister Farooq Wardak, Ambassador to Pakistan Omar Daudzai, Foreign Minister Zalmai Rassoul, Counter-Narcotics Minister Zarar Ahmad Moqbil, and Nangarhar Governor Gul Agha Sherzai were also among potential contestants.
"The official… revealed that in recent months Karzai had been tending to throw his weight behind his former finance minister [Dr. Ashraf] Ghani Ahmadzai, who had been afforded an effective campaign opportunity in the form of visits to all the 34 provinces of the country in connection with the security switch [from NATO troops to Afghan security forces]. At the international level as well, the source said Ahmadzai, who had acknowledged the significant gains Karzai had made over the past 12 years, enjoyed ample support from important capitals in the West and elsewhere. 'All this, including interactions with civil society leaders, gives him a head start over other presidential wannabes.'
"Ex-interior minister Ali Ahmad Jalali is seen as yet another aspirant, but he is staying at a distance from Karzai's camp, according to the official, who said the Coordination Council of Political Parties and Alliances was drumming up support for Minister of Commerce Anwarul Haq Ahady.
"Syed Hamid Gilani has already dropped his bid, but he may swing behind another nominee. In case [former U.S. Ambassador to Kabul] Khalilzad does not see any prospect of his victory, he could withdraw in favor of Ahmadzai, the official indicated. At the moment, the erstwhile U.S. ambassador is hobnobbing with Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum, Mohammad Mohaqiq, and Balkh Governor Atta Mohammad Noor. But how far these negotiations succeed remains to be seen.
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"If not stoutly backed by President Karzai, Qayyum Karzai might also pull out of the race in favor of someone who guarantees the protection of his family interests, claimed another knowledgeable source. He said Prof. Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf was another hopeful, but he was expected to respect a presidential decision on a consensus candidate."
"Despite Opposition From Within The [Opposition] Alliance And Financial Woes, Dr. Abdullah Remained Determined To Participate In The Battle For The Presidency"
"Despite opposition from within the [opposition] alliance and financial woes, Dr. Abdullah remained determined to participate in the battle for the presidency and recently had a swing through different provinces, one of his party colleagues said. Former interior minister Atmar, backed by the main opposition grouping, has reportedly held a series of meetings with [several Afghan leaders such as] Khalilzad, Mohaqiq, Dostum, Ghulam Jilani Popal, Omar Zakhilwal, and several influence-wielding former governors. But they have not yet discussed who will be their running mates.
"Many in the Coordination Council concede the chances of their nominee winning the presidential office are slim, agreeing the slot should go a Pakhtun – given the community's political predominance and numerical strength [especially in southern Afghanistan]. Instead, they are eyeing positions of first and second vice-presidents for their nominees. Ahmad Zia Massoud, Yunus Qanuni, Atta Noor, and Mohaqiq are weighing their options to have a crack at the two VP seats.
"Dr. Safiullah Sherzai, a member of Khalilzad's office in Kabul, confirmed the ex-envoy's candidacy. He recalled Khalilzad had held talks with Ghani Ahmadzai, Jalali, Atta Noor, [former] jihadi leaders and political figures in Kabul three months ago. By the same token, the Afghan Millat party is also in the thick of discussions on the subject but has not been able to forge consensus on who should get its ticket. A member of the party, Kabir Rahmani, admitted there was a mismatch of perceptions within the group that allowed everyone to speak their mind in deference to core democratic norms. Having a lot of clout with Afghan Millat leaders, workers, and supporters, Popal is inclined to support Ahmadzai.
"Meanwhile, Pajhwok has learned on good authority that the National Alliance is sharply divided. If Abdullah is ignored, Qanuni, Noorul Haq Uloomi, Ahmad Wali Massoud, and others will ditch the coalition. Pajhwok did try to take comments from Qanuni and Uloomi, but they were not available. On the other hand, spokesmen for Wardak and Ahmadzai said they had not taken a formal decision so far on whether or not to contest the ballot.
Ahmadzai, however, is spearheading a 'National Consensus Programme' to woo the huge constituency of youth."
Possible Contenders For Vice Presidency
"Abdullah, Moqbil, Qanuni, Zia Massoud, Atta Noor, High Peace Council Chairman Salahuddin Rabbani, Mohaqiq, Noor Akbari, Dr. Shah Jehan, Sadiq Modabir and [former] spymaster Amarullah Saleh are among the aspirants for the two posts [of first and second vice president].
"On the international front, key donors to Afghanistan – the United States and Britain – are seeking one vice president position for Qanuni, Saleh, or Abdullah. There are broad hints that Atta Noor, Ihsanullah Bayat, Qayyum Karzai, Rabbani and Modabir … [i.e. two of them could] be Khalilzad's running mates."
Endnote:
[1] Pajhwok.com (Afghanistan), July 2, 2013. The original English of the report has been mildly edited for clarity and standardization.
