Inquiry & Analysis Series Report

Text Size A | A | A September 9, 2010 Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No.635 Concerns in Kuwait, Gulf over Iranian Threat to Gulf States By: E. B. Picali* Introduction In recent months, there has been a shift in Kuwaiti public opinion regarding Iran. More and more voices in the Kuwaiti press and public describe Iran as a threat to the security and stability of the Gulf states, and call to address this threat. The change comes against the backdrop of events, reports, assessments, and rumors regarding hostile Iranian activity in the Gulf: the discovery of a money laundering operation in Bahrain connected to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC);[1] the arrest of 250 operatives in Bahrain suspected of membership in terror cells that would be activated in the event of an attack on Iran,[2] and reports that similar cells exist in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia;[3] the uncovering of an Iranian espionage network in Kuwait;[4] reports about Iranian plans to occupy the Gulf states[5] and to assassinate senior military commanders and media figures in the Middle East, especially in the Gulf and in Lebanon;[6] the U.S. plan to install missile defense systems in several Gulf countries;[7] the July 2010 attack on the Japanese supertanker in the Gulf; the activation of the Bushehr nuclear reactor in southern Iran on August 21, 2010; assessments that Iran's influence in the region will grow in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq; and Iran's naval maneuvers in the Gulf in April and May 2010, among other developments.[8] The sense of threat generated by all these factors is compounded by the advances in Iran's nuclear program. Following are excerpts from press articles discussing and analyzing the threat posed by Iran to the Gulf states: The Nature of the Iranian Threat   Columnists and public figures in Kuwait are united in their assessment that Iran intends to take over the Gulf states, and speculate about the nature of this takeover and the method of its implementation, and also about the ways to address the threat. 1. Takeover through Social and Political Influence Some writers assessed that Iran means to gain control over the Gulf by exerting its religious and cultural influence over it, and by instigating strife and unrest in the region. In one of a series of articles in the Kuwaiti daily Al-Siyassa on the issue of the Iranian threat, columnist Nasser Al-'Otaibi wrote: "Iran's plan is to take over the Sunni countries... by increasing its influence in them... through the establishment of Shi'ite community centers, charities, culture centers and medical facilities..."[9] In an earlier article, published after the uncovering of an Iranian spy network in Kuwait, he wrote: "Iran has extensive plans to instigate sectarian strife [between Sunnis and Shi'ites] and to sow division in the Gulf, in order to infiltrate the very fabric of its societies, [including] Kuwaiti society.[10] Another Al-Siyassa columnist, Daoud Al-Basri, wrote: "Since 1980, Iran's strategy has been [aimed at] toppling the Gulf regimes and replacing them with groups loyal to it, as a preliminary step towards annexing these countries and taking over the entire [Gulf] region."[11] Iraqi columnist Iman Al-Hashemi assessed that the location of Iran's nuclear facilities indicated an intention to take over both Iraq and the Gulf: "It seems that Iran's insistence on building nuclear facilities... close to the southern [stretch of its] border with Iraq indicates a desire to take over Iraq and the Arab Gulf."[12] 2. Takeover through Military Occupation Others assessed that Iran's bid to gain influence in the region would also take the form of military moves, up to and including the actual invasion and occupation of the Gulf states. The Islamist Dr. 'Abdallah Al-Nafisi, a former Kuwaiti MP and a lecturer on political science, said in a May 8 lecture at a Salafi center that the Gulf states face an actual threat to their existence, because they are small oil countries unable to defend themselves against an external military threat. He added that Iran was the chief source of danger.[13] Al-Nafisi's warning was echoed by others, including Salafi Kuwaiti MP Dr. Walid Al-Tabtabai, who wrote a series of articles on the issue;[14] Al-Arabiya director 'Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed, who wrote that Al-Nafisi was "right to sound the warning bells regarding the danger threatening the Gulf states;"[15] and Al-Arabiya deputy director Daoud Al-Shiryan, who wrote on the daily Al-Hayat in response to Al-Nafisi's statements: "The Gulf region is in the grips of a war [motivated by] greed. The small Gulf states, which are very rich in oil, are facing a real threat.[16] Similar statements were made by Kuwaiti columnists Khalaf Al-Harbi,[17] Hamoud Al-Hattab,[18] Daoud Al-Basri[19] and others. Ways to Address the Iranian Threat   Various writers presented possible responses to the Iranian threat. On the diplomatic level, they advocated taking a tougher line vis-à-vis this country and forming a union with Saudi Arabia. On the domestic level, they advocated tightening oversight of possible sources of danger within Kuwait, including the Iranian embassy. And on the security level, they suggested purchasing weapons and advanced defense systems. The most radical of the proposals was to cooperate (passively) with a Western military offensive against Iran. 1. Passive Cooperation with a Western Military Strike This unusual proposal came from Fuad Al-Hashem, a columnist for the Kuwaiti daily Al-Watan, who called on the Gulf states to serve as a platform for a Western attack on Iran, while warning them not to be taken in by Ahmadinejad's deceptive rhetoric: "The Iranian superman [i.e., Ahmadinejad]... threatened that, in the event of an attack on Iran, he would 'set the whole world on fire'... Three days before [uttering] this threat, the superman said, '[Iran's] friends among the Gulf states will not let [the West] use their soil and skies [to launch] an attack against us.' Only now, when the ground is burning under the feet of his regime, have the Gulf states become his 'friends'... Where was this 'friendship' when the bombs were being planted [in Kuwait]?... Where was this 'friendship' when 16 Kuwaiti terrorists from the ranks of Hizbullah killed pilgrims in Mecca? Where was this 'friendship' when the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its servants showered funds on traitors, military personnel and spies in Bahrain, in order to undermine its stability and security?... Where was this 'friendship'... when the three islands belonging to the United Arab Emirates [i.e. Abu Moussa, Lesser Tunb, and Greater Tunb] were occupied [by Iran]?... "I firmly demand that the foreign ministers of all the Gulf states declare the consent of their states, and before that the consent of their peoples, to opening their airspace, waters and land... to U.S., NATO, and U.N. forces for an all-out war against the regime in Tehran..."[20] 2. Tougher Foreign Policy; Boycott of Iran Several writers demanded that the Gulf states, including Kuwait, make changes in their foreign policy vis-à-vis Iran. On May 3, 2010, two days after the exposure of an Iranian spy cell in Kuwait, two columnists in the Kuwaiti daily Al-Siyassa, as well as its editor, called on the Gulf states to take a firm stance against Iran. Columnist Mash'al Al-Nami wrote: "What is required of the government today... is the implementation of a firm policy vis-à-vis Iran."[21] Columnist Hamoud Al-Hattab called on the government to abandon its diplomacy of forbearance: "The government cannot say, 'We do not want to arouse [the anger of] the bull,' because the bull, [which is to say] the Iranian [Islamic Revolutionary] Guards Corps, is furious by nature... and is not interested in whether the flag Kuwait waves is black... green, or white. The diplomacy of forbearance does not interest them, and they are [merely] exploiting it in order to continue to deceive [the world] and commit even greater crimes..."[22] The daily's editor, Ahmad Al-Jarallah, called on all of the Gulf states to pressure the international community to take action against Iran: "We must abandon our gentle policy toward the enemy, who has hostile intentions. The Gulf states must start [working] together toward an international offensive that will condemn Iran's ongoing aggression against them... and not leave things to be decided by developments in Iran's nuclear [program] and by international agreements, which might be reached behind the scenes between some of the superpowers and Iran at the expense of regional [interests]."[23] Others, such as 'Abdallah Al-'Otaibi, even called for a boycott of Iran: "All the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council must follow the example of the United Arab Emirates and completely boycott Iran and isolate it, so that it will realize the utterly destructive results of its actions and attempts at exporting the so-called [Iranian] Revolution."[24] 3. Forming a Union with Saudi Arabia One of the more far-reaching and controversial proposals came from Dr. Al-Nafisi, who called for a Saudi-Kuwaiti union, as he explained in a lecture: "...The miniscule [Gulf countries], primarily Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the [United Arab] Emirates, are incapable of ensuring their own security unless they adopt a model of historic unity with the [other] countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, especially with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is the [regional] center of gravity and the state to which we must cling. It is a state capable of [ensuring] at least its domestic security and our own. Today Iran has infiltrated us, and if we wish to resolve this strategic morass, we must unite in currency, economy, passport [regulations], and labor and education laws. If we want to offset Iran's weight in the region even slightly, we must unite..."[25] Al-Nafisi added that, since the regimes of the Gulf states are not independent but controlled by the U.S., and since their media is preoccupied with marginal concerns, it falls to the public to demand that its leaders promote the cause of forming a union. His analysis of the Iranian threat and proposal for a union with Saudi Arabia sparked a public debate in Kuwait and the Gulf in general. Reactions varied, with some in favor of his proposal and others against it; yet others approved of his analysis but rejected his conclusions. On May 23, 2010, Naif Al-Mard, member of the political bureau of the Salafi movement in Kuwait, declared his movement's support for Al-Nafisi's proposal.[26] This support comes as no surprise, considering that a union with Saudi Arabia accords with the Salafi ideology, which advocates reinstating the mode of life practiced by the Prophet Muhammad and his Companions in the early days of Islam. This aim entails replacing the modern nation-states with a unified Islamic ummah. In a series of articles, Salafi Kuwaiti MP Dr. Walid Al-Tabtabai asked those who oppose the union: "...Would Kuwait in 2010 be a sovereign state if not for its sister [states] in the Gulf [who opposed the Iraqi invasion] in 1990-1991, and if not for [then Saudi] King Fahd, who declared that the defense of Kuwait is tantamount to the defense of Riyadh?... "In a previous article, I allotted to Saudi Arabia the central role in security and defense coordination, due to its size, [strong] economy, and [extensive] oil resources, and due to the fact that its citizens [represent] more than 80% of the Gulf population. Saudi Arabia is [also] of great spiritual significance owing to Mecca and Medina, and because it is the cradle of Arabism and Islam... In addition, it has access to the Red Sea, which can be an alternative [to the Persian Gulf] in a state of emergency... I do not believe that any Kuwaiti who is concerned for the sovereignty of his homeland can be less enthused than any other resident of the Gulf over [the proposal for] a Gulf union, since it would defend sovereignty and deter the enemy..."[27] Support for the proposal was also expressed by writers not affiliated with the Salafi stream, such as Daoud Al-Shiryan. He argued that, in light of their need to defend their existence, it behooved the smaller Gulf states to seriously consider Al-Nafisi's proposal.[28] Kuwaiti journalist Khalaf Al-Harbi agreed with Al-Nafisi's analysis of the Iranian military threat against the region, but proposed that the union be effected gradually rather than immediately: "There is no arguing with Dr. Al-Nafisi' statements regarding the danger facing the [member states] of the Gulf [Cooperation] Council, but these challenges must be dealt with by gradual, rather than immediate, unification."[29] S'ad Al-'Ajami, in contrast, proposed a federation: "...A union of some of the Gulf states... would be difficult, if not impossible, to form, [both] politically and socially, because of the differences between these states' regimes. On the other hand, the notion of a federation between these states is worth considering."[30] Dauod Al-Basri wrote: "Comprehensive coordination among the Gulf states is the ideal model [for survival], without which they will disappear. [However,] the notion of a union is nothing but a tired old myth."[31] Saudi columnist Suleiman Al-Hatlan similarly argued that "what is needed today is not the assimilation of small state[s] into a larger one... but rather serious efforts from all sides to achieve greater cooperation."[32] Kuwaiti writer Ahmad Budustour rejected Al-Nafisi's ideas altogether, claiming that the international community would prevent Iran from impinging on the sovereignty of the Gulf states, since its own essential interests would be at stake in such a case. He too said that the unique characteristics of each Gulf state would stand in the way of a union.[33] Kuwaiti MP 'Ali Al-Rashed remarked that Kuwait is an independent state and should remain one.[34] 4. Strengthening Internal Security Some of the proposed methods of addressing the Iranian threat focused on tightening internal security. Al-'Otaibi called on the Gulf states "to monitor and track all persons who frequently visit Iran for various purposes, such as tourism, medical treatment, and pilgrimage to [Shi'ite] holy places; to monitor some of those in the political and economic spheres and their bank accounts, and discover the purpose of their repeated visits to Iran; [and to monitor] the Iranian embassies, which play a suspicious role in many states..."[35] Daoud Al-Basri called for the internal defense apparatuses to increase their anti-insurgency operations: "...The time has come to formulate a strategic work plan in Kuwait and the Gulf to put an end to Iran's diabolical plan and to take the initiative away from it. The [fifth] columns and secret cells that we all know about must be liquidated."[36] 5. Strengthening Military Defense Capabilities Addressing the rising concerns among Gulf states over the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and the possibility of a greater Iranian influence there, Al-Basri wrote that these states must strengthen their military defenses: "Any Iranian retaliation for a Western or Israeli military operation of any kind against its nuclear facilities will not be limited to deploying the Revolutionary Guards' Al-Quds Force on land and at sea. It will [also] include [strikes] against sensitive military, security, and economic facilities in the Arab Gulf states, especially American [military] bases and the [other] military bases in the countries of the region, as well as against oil and electric facilities, airports, sea ports, and so on... The best means of defense against any Iranian attack is deterrent weapons, [namely] defense missiles, [and specifically] batteries of American patriot missiles..."[37] 6. Calling on the International Community for Help Voicing his concerns regarding the Iranian threat, Kuwaiti columnist 'Abdallah Al-Hadlaq called on the international community to prevent Iran from manufacturing nuclear weapons, while expressing his doubts as to the effectiveness of negotiations with it: "The terrorist Persian regime is striving to manufacture an atomic bomb... The international community has placed considerable faith in negotiations with [this regime]... Is the international community still unaware [of the fact] that Tehran's fascist Persian regime excels at dragging its feet and at deceiving the world and leading it astray with futile illusions and false hopes, while at the same time proceeding with its illegitimate nuclear activities? How long can [the international community] rely solely on negotiations with the Persian side, especially after the Persian regime in Tehran has ordered the Revolutionary Guards to make preparations for an all-out war in the Middle East?... Hasn't the time come for the international community to take action in order to prevent Iran from [becoming] nuclear?"[38] *E. B. Picali is a research fellow at MEMRI. Endnotes: [1] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), March 22, 2010. [2] Al-Qabas (Kuwait), August 21, 2010. [3] Al-Qabas (Kuwait), August 21, 2010. [4] Al-Qabas (Kuwait), May 1, 2010. [5] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), May 6, 2010. [6] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), August 5, 2010. [7] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), August 12, 2010. [8] See, for example, a report about two Iranian men and a Kuwaiti woman who were caught trying to smuggle Kuwaiti army uniforms into Iran. Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), August 5, 2010. [9] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), July 4, 2010. [10] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), May 4, 2010. [11] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), May 4, 2010. [12] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), July 11, 2010. [13] For a clip of the lecture in Arabic, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAusjVAUYUI&feature=related. A summary of the lecture appeared in Al-Siyassa on May 10, 2010. [14] Al-Watan (Kuwait), May 20, 2010. [15] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), June 19, 2010. [16] Al-Hayat (London), June 13, 2010. [17] Al-Jarida  (Kuwait), July 27, 2010. [18] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), May 2, 2010. [19] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), May 2, 2010; www.elaph.com, May 17, 2010. [20] Al-Watan (Kuwait), August 22, 2010. [21] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), May 3, 2010. [22] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), May 3, 2010. [23] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), May 3, 2010. [24] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), July 8, 2010. [25] See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAusjVAUYUI&feature=related. [26] Al-Rai (Kuwait), May 23, 2010. [27] Al-Watan (Kuwait), May 20, 2010. [28] Al-Hayat (London), June 13, 2010. [29] Al-Jarida (Kuwait), June 20, 2010. [30] Al-Jarida (Kuwait), June 16, 2010. [31] www.elaph.com, May 17, 2010. [32] Al-'Arab (Qatar), June 23, 2010. [33] Al-Watan (Kuwait), May 21, 2010. [34] Al-Rai (Kuwait), May 17, 2010. [35] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), May 4, 2010. [36] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), May 2, 2010. [37] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), August 16, 2010. [38] Al-Watan (Kuwait), August 16, 2010.