The wave of uprisings sweeping the Arab world has left Al-Qaeda with a major problem: this new reality has challenged not only the organization's relevance but even the very need for it, as the same dictators and dictatorial regimes it fought for decades are toppling under the pressure of peaceful and popular demonstrations. To be sure, Al-Qaeda's leaders, fighters, and supporters are genuinely content over the fall of their arch-enemies, such as Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak.[1] However, Al-Qaeda itself played no significant role in the popular protests that toppled the "apostate" rulers (or the "near enemy," in Al-Qaeda's terminology) in a mere matter of weeks. Moreover, the fact that the uprisings succeeded without its participation – or the participation of any jihad group dedicated to armed activity – has undermined one of Al-Qaeda's most fundamental assumptions, namely that tyrants can be ousted only by Jihad and the force of arms.
Not only did the uprisings marginalize Al-Qaeda's role in the actual political scene, they also brought to the fore ideas that marginalize Al-Qaeda's own ideology, such as the Arab peoples' public commitment to greater freedom and democracy. Moreover, Al-Qaeda was forced to lay out a new strategy for an Arab and Muslim world dominated by new, more pluralistic and democratic rules and values.
Perhaps more than any other figure to rise to prominence in the recent wave of revolutions, 'Abd Al-Hakim Belhadj personifies the blow the revolutions dealt Al-Qaeda. At first, jihadis were thrilled and hopeful when Blehadj, who founded and led the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group in the 1990's, was appointed to a senior military role among the Libyan rebels. Their hopes, however, were soon shattered when Belhadj renounced any connection to Al-Qaeda[2] and even paid tribute to the West for assisting the rebels. The jihadi camp was just as quick to renounce Belhadj, as jihadi clerics issued fatwas warning Islamist rebels against cooperation with the Interim Transitional National Council.
Al-Qaeda's leaders and ideologues have tried to minimize the damage by expressing support for the uprisings, and by creating the impression that Al-Qaeda had a hand in them. Also, in their responses to these events, they have taken pains to minimalize the "peaceful" nature of the protests so as to justify their own method of jihad. They have also made considerable efforts to present the uprisings as furthering Al-Qaeda's causes, and to assert that Al-Qaeda has a role to play in the post-revolutionary Arab world. All this, however, has been to no avail.
This report will present Al-Qaeda's attempts to address these issues – both for internal consumption and in messages to the Muslim world at large – as reflected in statements and writings by the organization's leaders. It will focus on Al-Qaeda's effort to frame the revolutions in such a way as to serve its own worldview, strategy, and goals.
The question of whether Al-Qaeda and the global jihad movement have been weakened or grown stronger as a result of the uprisings is outside the scope of this report and is one that should be analyzed and determined by a larger set of variables, including the progress of the Arab spring, developments in other Islamist streams, Al-Qaeda's situation on the ground, and more.
Senior Al-Qaeda Ideologue Warns Mujahideen Not to Allow Calls for Change and Revolution to Corrupt Their Ideals
An article in Al-Qaeda's magazine Talae' Khurasan ["Vanguards of Khurasan"], by one of Al-Qaeda's senior ideologues, Abu Yahya Al-Libi, provides an illustration of Al-Qaeda's ideological predicament. In the article, which is directed inward to Al-Qaeda's ranks and not to the public in general, Al-Libi warned the mujahideen not to be too influenced by the revolutions and by some of the ideas they champion: "The events [currently] unfolding in many of the Arab countries can undoubtedly be considered a momentous turning point in the course of the peoples... Considering the far-reaching implications [of these events], and because they are rushing headlong towards a change of unknown [nature]... the mujahideen must make their contribution and express their positions on what is happening by adhering to the principles of their blessed jihadi mission, while taking advantage, as far as possible, of these great changes. They must not miss opportunities, but neither should they [allow themselves] to be swept up by the calls for change, out of rashness and excitement rather than prudence and reflection.
"In my opinion, great historical events like the ones unfolding today have many positive aspects, but they can also corrupt many ideals, and cause [people] to swallow all sorts of poisonous [ideas] that destroy the fundamentals and foundations of ideological programs. The turmoil caused by great events can be fertile ground for the emergence of perverse ideas and fake programs..." Al-Libi compares the Arab peoples who have overthrown their tyrants to a prisoner who has been released from solitary confinement but is still in prison, and thus not free. He warns: "In the midst of the Muslims' celebrations, we must be careful not to be content with [merely] reaching the point of stability. [Even after things stabilize,] we must continue to strive towards the level of awareness and action that will satisfy Allah. We all agree that the current situation – even if it contains much good and many gains for the Muslims – is in truth and in essence nothing but a new tyrannical regime..."[3]
Al-Qaeda Claims to Have Triggered the Revolutions
The underlying cause of the revolutions is an issue that has received considerable attention in statements by Al-Qaeda leaders and spokesmen. To compensate for its lack of active participation in these revolutions, the organization's leaders began cultivating a narrative whereby it played a historic role in bringing them about. For example, over the recent months, Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri repeatedly claimed that the organization's attacks on the U.S., especially the 9/11 attacks, were a key element in the historical development that culminated in the outbreak of the uprisings. In one message, he said: "The media loyal to America falsely claims that Al-Qaeda's strategy of [armed] conflict with the regimes has failed. This media is forgetting that Al-Qaeda, and most of the jihadi movement, concluded [as early as] 15 years ago that conflict with the [Muslim] regimes should be abandoned, and that focus should be placed on attacking on the leader of global villainess [i.e., the U.S.]. Thanks to this strategy, America, especially after the 9/11 attacks, ordered the Arab regimes to increase their pressure on their peoples and on their oppositions. This helped trigger popular action and anger, [ultimately] leading to the eruption of a massive storm. Sheikh Osama bin Laden used to stress this. [He said] that the more we pressured the Hubal of our age, namely America, the more it would weaken, and as a result, its agents would be weakened as well."[4]
In an article in Al-Qaeda's magazine Talae' Khurasan, 'Abdallah Al-'Adam, an Al-Qaeda "sheikh and commander," likewise credits the movement with triggering the revolutions by goading the peoples into action: "[The members of] the jihadi movements made great sacrifices for this cause [of defying the rulers]. They gave their souls and their blood [for it], were incarcerated for dozens of years, and were tortured by the dictators' [servants]. They did all this in order to awaken the ummah, expose [its] suffering, and shatter the idol of weakness that lay heavily upon the hearts of its sons for many decades, preventing them from acting...
"The jihadi camp understood the nature of this disease that was plaguing the ummah: the disease of feebleness, of loving this world and hating death. Therefore, they launched a war to annihilate [this weakness] and tear it out from the Muslims' hearts... Through their long jihad and courageous raids... they were able to mobilize the Muslims, strengthen their zeal, and break the barrier of fear and the disease of feebleness that were keeping the ummah from shaking off [its] meekness and humiliation."[5]
Al-Qaeda Describes the Mujahideen as Part and Parcel of the Protest Movements
The protests harmed Al-Qaeda by revealing how detached it is from its target audience, namely the Arab street. As the historical events unfolded in Tunisia and Egypt, and the gap between Al-Qaeda and the masses became increasingly clear, Al-Qaeda's leaders strove to reestablish a connection with the people. In the fourth installment of his "Message of Hope and Glad Tidings to the People of Egypt", Al-Zawahiri pointed out that the mujahideen and the peoples of Egypt and Tunisia had a common enemy in the U.S. and its Western allies, who had placed the Arab countries under the rule of tyrants serving their interests. In the fifth installment in the series, Al-Zawahiri praised the courageous Muslims for rebelling against the corrupt regimes, and for managing to oust the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt. It is noteworthy that Al-Zawahiri apologized repeatedly for Al-Qaeda's tardiness in responding to the uprisings, blaming this on the war being waged against the mujahideen. To fend off claims of Al-Qaeda's irrelevance, he reminded his audience that he himself had participated in the Egyptian protests during the 1970's, adding that he would join the Egyptians protesters in their present efforts if he could.
In the same vein, Al-Qaeda leader Abu Yahya Al-Libi said in a video message: "The mujahideen who are sacrificing themselves today... on the battlefields and rushing to meet death in battle – what are they if not a part of this ummah? They came out of its womb, defended its sanctities, and rose up to remove all oppression from it... Therefore, any call or idea which aims to drive a wedge between the Islamic nation and its sons the mujahideen is a vile one, and [must be] rejected..."[6]
Al-Qaeda Claims the Revolutions Were Islamic in Their Essence
In order to prove the organization's relevance, Al-Qaeda's leaders also challenged the accepted assumptions regarding the roots and goals of the popular uprisings. Thus, Osama bin Laden rejected the claim that they were triggered mainly by economic hardship: "This [Egyptian] revolution was not... [about] food or clothing. It was a revolution of pride, honor, and sacrifice that lit up the cities and villages along the Nile, from north to south. The young men of Islam [remembered] their past pride and yearned for the days of their ancestors. [So], lighting their torches in [the flames of] the Al-Tahrir Square in Cairo, they set out to [burn and] defeat the unjust governments. They stood up to falsehood and raised their fists against it, and did not fear its troops."[7]
In another article in Talae' Khurasan, Al-Qaeda leader Atiyyat Allah Abu 'Abd Al-Rahman [also known as Atiyyah or Attiyat Allah[8]] came out against the notion that the demonstrators were demanding democracy: "The enemy's apparatuses of deception... are trying to steer the revolution by every means at their disposal... Using their media mouthpieces, [the enemies] are repeating terms... like 'demonstrations in demand of democracy' or 'peaceful protests in demand of democracy.' They are misrepresenting [the facts] and deceiving [people] by portraying the peoples' demand [as a demand for] democracy, when [the fact is that] most of our peoples do not know what democracy is and would not want it if they knew its true nature. Rather, most people use this term to express [Islamic] notions of freedom and opposition to dictatorship and tyranny, [a desire for] a rule [based on] shura [i.e., consultation]; accountability on the part of the leaders; a legal system that is free and pure [of corruption]; transparency of the state apparatuses, and so on. Those who promote Islam must be aware of this..."[9]
Al-Qaeda Claims the Revolutions Were Not Peaceful, Supports Even Peaceful Means as Long as They Are a Complimentary Tactic to Achieving the Strategic Goal – Not as an Alternative to Jihad
To defend its strategies and methods, Al-Qaeda also rejected the claim that the protests had been peaceful, and had therefore disproved its assumption that violent jihad was the only effective way to fight tyranny. Al-Qaeda's leaders argued that, contrary to this claim, the protestors had in fact employed Al-Qaeda's own methods of violent struggle. Talking of the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia, Atiyyat Allah said: "We do not agree that these revolutions were peaceful in the full sense of the term, even if they did champion the slogan of peaceful [protest] and non-violence. These were merely tactics, and what [we] should [really] consider is the reality and the situation as it is. These revolutions... clearly used violence at some stage, in that police stations and security [facilities] were attacked and torched... In many cases the protesters clashed with the security personnel using stones, sticks, and cold weapons, and some security personnel [even] died. There was violence. No one can deny it...
"The truth is that Al-Qaeda and the mujahideen do not in any way oppose peaceful action. No one will find any [evidence of] this in their statements. On the contrary, they call to resist unbelief, tyranny, and oppression, and the regimes that are based upon them, using all means legitimized [by the shari'a], according to ability – and the chief of these [means] is jihad.
"What the mujahideen oppose is endorsing peaceful [protest] as an alternative to the way of jihad, [which means] making military preparations, and taking up arms for the sake of Allah [by] attacking, killing, and bombing [His enemies]. As for peaceful [protest], as long as it is permissible and achieves the required goal, or at least part of [this goal], and does not overstep the boundaries of Islamic law, the mujahideen have no objection to it, and even support and encourage it. How often did the Al-Qaeda's leaders call upon the peoples to rise up and demonstrate...?"[10]
'Abdallah Al-'Adam wrote in a similar vein: "We do not deny that the people of Egypt and Tunisia managed to achieve a formal [regime] change in [just] a few weeks, while the jihadi movements failed to achieve [this goal] throughout their lengthy struggle... [But] the media has deliberately forgotten and ignored [the mujahideen's] obvious role [in the events,] in order to create the impression that only peaceful means should be used to attain the goals... as though the fleeing of the tyrant of Tunisia, and the stepping down of Egypt's Pharaoh, were achieved by paving the roads with roses and flowers... Weren't hundreds of people killed and thousands injured in these two revolutions? Weren't all of the police stations in both countries torched, along with the security forces' buildings?"[11]
Al-Qaeda Claims It Benefited from the Revolutions
Al-Qaeda leaders stressed that, contrary to what is claimed, the Arab Spring has not weakened Al-Qaeda but has actually strengthened it. Al-Zawahiri said: "America and its media, who are deceiving themselves more than anybody else, claim that America and its values have won and the extremist streams have lost. They are forgetting that the blessed Arab revolution toppled [former Egyptian president] Hosni Mubarak, who was America and Israel's strategic asset, as well as [former Tunisian president] Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, their loyal agent, and that [the revolution] is rocking the seats of other [members] of the club of [Western] agents, all of whom are enemies of Islam and the Muslims... So who has gained and who has lost?
"They are forgetting that the blessed Arab uprisings have freed thousands of prisoners from the Islamist movement who were incarcerated on America's orders, and that, Allah willing, [these former prisoners] will set out to the fields of da'wa and propaganda [in order to] enlighten the ummah. So who has gained and who has lost?
"They are forgetting that the blessed Arab revolution has freed the Arab peoples from the shackles of fear. The Arab peoples want Islam and Islamic rule, while America and the West hate them... So who has gained and who has lost?"[12]
The American-born cleric Anwar Al-Awlaki, recently killed, wrote in Inspire, the English-language magazine of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) that the changes in the Arab world would exacerbate America's geo-political and economic difficulties: "America, since 9/11, has been focused on the fight with the mujahideen in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, and now Yemen. It has devoted its resources and intelligence to the 'fight on terror'. But with what is happening now in the Arab world, America will no doubt have to divert some of its attention to the unexpected avalanche that is burying its dear friends. America has depended on these men for the dirty work of protecting American imperial interests. They acted as point men that saved America from the effort of doing it themselves, but now, with their fall, America will have to divert huge amounts of effort and money to cultivate a new breed of collaborators.
"This will force America, which is already an exhausted empire, to spread itself thin, which in turn would be greatly beneficial for the mujahideen. Even without this wave of change in the Muslim world, the jihad movement was on the rise. With the new developments in the area, one can only expect that the great doors of opportunity would open up for the mujahideen all over the world."[13]
Al-Qaeda Claims the Revolutions Created Huge Opportunities for the Jihadi Movements
Addressing the future of the Arab states in the new era, Al-Qaeda leaders stressed that in the long run, the only acceptable option was the establishment of Islamic states ruled by shari'a law. Al-Zawahiri said in one of his recorded messages: "Opportunities for da'wa have opened up in Egypt and Tunisia, and only Allah knows how long they will last. The people of Islam and jihad should take advantage of these opportunities, in order to spread the truth and rally the nation around the main causes about which no Muslim can disagree.
"The most important of these [causes] is that the shari'a should rule, not be ruled... It should be supreme to any other law, and overrule any other source of authority. Anything that contradicts the shari'a must be abolished from the law and the constitution. This must be stated in a clear way that is not open to interpretation or distortion.
"Another most important cause is the liberation of our countries from their subjugation to the forces of Western Crusader arrogance. Why isn't normalization with Israel stopped immediately – including the exchange of ambassadors with it? Why isn't the siege of Gaza completely lifted?..."[14]
*R. Green is a research fellow at MEMRI.
Endnotes:
[1] In a message he recorded shortly before his death, Osama bin Laden congratulated the Muslim nation on the uprisings: "My Muslim ummah, [as] we join you in marking this significant historic event [i.e., the Arab uprisings], we share in your joy and happiness, as well as in your sorrow. Blessed are your victories, and may Allah have mercy upon your martyrs, heal your wounded, and bring about the release of your prisoners... The ummah has long awaited this victory." For a full translation of this message, see MEMRI JTTM report, "Full Translation: In A Posthumous Recorded Message, Osama Bin Laden Speaks About The Arab Revolutions, Emphasizing The Need For Revolution In Islamic Consciousness To Make Them Successful," May 20, 2011, http://www.memrijttm.org/content/en/blog_personal.htm?id=4980¶m=APT.
[3] Abu Yahya Al-Libi, 'Thawrat al-shu'oub baina taathur wal-tathir', Talae' Khurasan 18, Rabi' Al-Thani, 1432.
[5] 'Abdallah Al-'Adam, "Osama bin Laden wa-thawrat al-shu'oub al-Arabiyya," Talae' Khurasan 19, Ramadan 1432.
[9] Atiyyat Allah Abu 'Abd Al-Rahman, "Al-thawrat al-Arabiyya wa-mawsim al-hisad", Talae' Khurasan 19, Ramadan 1432.
[10] Atiyyat Allah Abu 'Abd Al-Rahman, "Al-thawrat al-Arabiyya wa-mawsim al-hisad", Talae' Khurasan 19, Ramadan 1432.
[11] 'Abdallah Al-'Adam, "Osama bin Laden wa-thawrat al-shu'oub al-Arabiyya," Talae' Khurasan 19, Ramadan 1432.
