On February 24, 2011, the jihadi forum Shumukh Al-Islam posted an article by Al-Qaeda ideologue and leader 'Atiyyat Allah Abu 'Abd Al-Rahman, also known as 'Atiyyat Allah Al-Libi, titled "The Revolution of the Peoples and the Collapse of the Corrupt Arab Order: Smashing the Idol of Stability, and the New Beginning." The article was published by the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Fajr media company. Its publication also serves to refute the reports of Al-Libi's death in an October 7, 2010 air strike in Pakistan.
The article, dated February 16, 2011, is the first comprehensive response from the Al-Qaeda leadership to the recent turmoil in the Middle East. In it, Al-Libi expresses satisfaction at the unrest which has swept the Arab countries, and joy over the toppling, thus far, of two leaders, anticipating and hoping that additional Arab and Muslim peoples will take advantage of the chance to topple their regimes. Furthermore, in his view, the current unrest is not merely a temporary crisis, but a watershed that signals the end of the Arab order as we know it and the collapse of the notion of stability in the Middle East.
On the operational side, Al-Libi encourages jihadists to focus on building up a military presence in the Sinai. This is the second time a senior jihadist leader has recommended this course of action there. Al-Libi also urges the mujahideen of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) to seize the opportunity to topple the regime in Yemen and establish a stronghold in that country.
To a certain extent, the article is evidence that Al-Qaeda is currently in a difficult predicament, from an ideological and political viewpoint. According to Al-Qaeda's ideology, the Arab regimes are considered the arch-nemesis, and the primary justification for, and target of, violent jihad. It would seem that the popular uprisings usurped from Al-Qaeda the role of toppling these regimes, rendering them superfluous. In their defense, Al-Libi explains that Al-Qaeda cannot deploy large armies at the drop of a hat, in order to come to the aid of Muslims. Moreover, he presents a set of updated priorities according to which the West, Israel, and the remaining Arab regimes – the Saudi royal family foremost among them – are Al-Qaeda's raison d'etre, regardless of the fact that "apostate" and "tyrant" regimes were toppled by peaceful means and without the jihadists' help.
Following are excerpts from the article:
"The Elimination of Some or Much of the Evil is a Cause for Joy Among the People… The Entire Idea of 'Stability,' Which the Ignoble Tyrants Made an Idol, Collapsed with Them"
"Together with our Arab peoples and all the nations of the world, we have enthusiastically and eagerly followed the events in Tunisia and Egypt. It seemed to me, that along with the sound of the old pharaoh, Hosni Al-La Mubarak's [Hosni 'the Damned,' instead of Mubarak – 'the blessed'] collapse, I also heard the Jews' hearts beating like drums, pounding hysterically from the fear and panic into which Allah had cast them in this momentous event... We have beseeched God... that He make this revolution advantageous to Islam and the Muslims. It is true that [the revolution] is not yet complete to the extent we had hoped [i.e., a complete collapse of the Tunisian and Egyptian regimes]. However, the elimination of some or much of the evil is a cause for joy among the people, and we hope that this will be the first step toward a [greater] good in the future, and that it will present new opportunities, Allah willing.
"These revolutions, especially the one in Egypt, are not merely against the corrupt Arab order. They carry deeper and more comprehensive meanings. They are a watershed and a significant turning point in the history of the region and its social structure. Hosni Al-La Mubarak and his regime are not the only thing that has collapsed. The entire idea of 'stability,' which the ignoble tyrants made an idol, collapsed with them. The stability of the region meant supplying [the leaders] with all forms of reassurance and security against... anyone who might have threatened their complete control over the country and its resources,... including whatever was necessary to guard the borders with the mini-state of Israel, and guarantee [Israel's] security and protect it from all jihadi activity.
"The Egyptian regime fell, and before it that in Tunisia, and these may be succeeded by the Yemeni and Jordanian [regimes], and perhaps also by the Libyan, Algerian, and Moroccan [regimes], as well, Allah willing... Nevertheless, like many others, I didn't expect this to happen as fast as it did in Tunisia, and I do not believe that the enemies expected it either... Like others, we thought that the peoples were [as good as] dead or drugged for what seems like a long time, as a result of what the criminal tyrants did to them. However, the revolution in Tunisia and the events [in the Arab world] that followed it proved that the peoples can indeed revolt, [even] though they were thought to be [as good as] dead or out of their senses.
"I want to mention two things [regarding the events]. [The first is that] some time before the outbreak of the revolution in Tunisia... we read an article by Sheikh Abu Muslim Al-Jazairi, who predicted the imminent collapse of the Tunisian regime and the outbreak of the revolution that would achieve it. When I recalled the article, I praised Allah that we have among us people of such great intelligence, foresight, and perception...
"[The second is] a letter, written by a sister in Tunisia, and disseminated on the internet, in which she addressed the Al-Qaeda organization and its leader, Osama bin Laden, and others, appealing for their help[1]... [The letter] was very moving and distressing, and it aroused even greater anger against those cursed tyrants, the enemies of Allah and Islam... It was as if the Tunisian sister's letter were, in fact, the final sign marking the end of the tyrant Ben 'Ali's regime...
"There were, [however,] only two things we could do: pray to Allah on behalf of our oppressed brothers and sisters, and continue waging our jihad. Perseverance and persistence in jihad are the most important ways Allah gave us to serve our religion, our ummah, and our humiliated and persecuted brothers and sisters."
"Al-Qaeda Does Not have a Magic Wand"
"I would like to take this opportunity to clarify something to our brothers and sisters everywhere. Although we take pride in the trust and love the Muslims give us, Al-Qaeda does not have a magic wand, so to speak... Al-Qaeda is a humble part of the greater efforts of the jihad-fighting ummah. Do not overestimate it. Let us all know our abilities, and cooperate in piety, courage, and jihad for the sake of Allah, each in his own role, according to his own ability and what befits him...
"Today, the righteous sons of the ummah, the mujahideen, and the preachers of Allah, must take advantage of this historical opportunity, and set off on a relentless campaign of preaching, education, reform, and revival, in light of the freedoms and opportunities this revolution has enabled... In general, we call upon [our people] to understand matters correctly, and steer away from narrow vision, impulse, and haste. They must not enter into arguments with the other factions of the Islamic movement, such as the brothers of the Al-Nahda [movement] in Tunisia and others [a veiled reference to the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist movements]. They should [instead] begin proactive [military] preparations. This goes for the brothers in Egypt, the Sinai, Rafah, and other places..."
"The Infidel West Does Not at All Care about the Wellbeing of Our Islamic Peoples… [but] Raises a Storm Over Its Own Interests"
"This Arab revolution in Egypt, Tunisia and, as we expect, other countries, has revealed several major truths... [First], the fragility of these dictatorial, tyrannical police states... As soon as the people rise up and rebel against them, they fall and their leaders flee abroad...
"[Second], the infidel West does not at all care about the wellbeing of our Islamic peoples. It cries nothing but crocodile tears over us, [but] raises a storm over its own interests, which call for 'stability' in the region and the preservation of these regimes... In spite of everything the West knows so well about the tragedies of our peoples and the oppression they suffer, all it cares about is perpetuating the status quo, in order to ensure its own economic interests and the steady flow of our lands' and peoples' resources into its markets and factories...
"[The third revelation is] the strong connection between the apostate Arab regimes and the Jews (Israel), and the manner in which Hosni Mubarak's Egypt served as the Jews' alert and vigilant guard... Today, many people have come to realize that, if it were not for the treacherous, heretical regimes (Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and the rest of the mini-states of the evil Arab order), the mini-state of Israel would not have remained in existence. That is to say, when our swift battle is [finally] waged, it will end in victory for the ummah, Allahu Akbar, and this will be soon, Allah willing."
Inciting Against the Regimes of Saudi Arabia and Yemen
"[Fourth], regarding the hypocritical Saudi regime, the traitor of the two holy places, the king of the Aal [Al-]Sa'ud family, has tenaciously stood alongside Hosni Al-La Mubarak... to the extent where he clashed with the Americans, perhaps for the first time in history.
"We wish to ask the wise people in 'Saudi Arabia' a few simple questions: Why is [King] 'Abdallah Aal [Al-] Sa'ud aiding Hosni [Mubarak], the secularist, the collaborator with Israel, the servant of the Americans, the darling of the Jews?... Is 'Abdallah helping Hosni for the sake of Allah and Islam?... These questions are waiting for answers... before the storm [comes] and time runs out.
"As to our brothers, the mujahideen in Yemen, I must remind them that the regime of 'Ali 'Abdallah Saleh is in the weakest state it has ever been, the revolution against it is coming, and [Saleh] is on the verge of collapse. I do not think that I need to remind [anyone] that this is a great opportunity, politically, militarily, and culturally. Wars and periods of transition provide many opportunities to do good for he whom Allah grants success..."[2]
