On January 17,The New Indian Express, a leading daily newspaper, published an article titled "Afghan Shadow Over India," by Tufail Ahmad, the director of MEMRI's South Asia Studies Project. In the article, Ahmad analyzes the jihadi threat to India and Kashmir in view of the Taliban's strategy emerging in the run-up to the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan by 2014. The following are excerpts:[1]
"The Taliban And Other Militant Organizations … Are Not Defeated; An Estimated 20,000 Terrorists Roam Across Afghanistan"
"Afghanistan has a treacherous history. In 1839, Shah Shuja was anointed by the British as the ruler of Afghanistan and was assassinated soon after the colonial masters left. As the United States pulls out its troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda killing machine in Afghanistan is comprehensively capable of carrying out a few high-profile assassinations in Kabul, destabilizing the country with Pakistani intelligence support and turning it into the jihadi safe-haven that it was before 9/11.
"Let's consider two hard facts in Afghanistan's near future. First, the Taliban and other militant organizations, notably Hizb-e-Islami and Al-Qaeda, are not defeated. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri and his lieutenants remain sheltered in Pakistan. No signs exist that the Taliban's strength has diminished. A month ago, on December 13, they bombed a U.S. military base in Kandahar soon after a visit by U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta.
"Last August, an aircraft carrying General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, was damaged by Taliban fire, though he was unhurt. Similar attacks have been carried out by the Taliban regularly, killing over 3,400 Afghan security-men last year alone. Currently, an estimated 20,000 terrorists roam across Afghanistan, a guerilla force large enough to destabilise the country."
The Security Vacuum In Afghanistan After The U.S. Withdrawal In 2014
"Second, the U.S. is hastening a near-total withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by 2014. In fact, as Afghan President Hamid Karzai arrived in Washington on January 8 for talks, the U.S. media's singular concern was whether 10,000 or as few as 2,500 troops should remain in Afghanistan after 2014.The White House released feelers that it could withdraw all the troops. The U.S. media debate is unconcerned about Afghanistan's future, or about the current terrorist threat emanating from the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
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"Amid the emerging security vacuum, the Taliban and their allies are planning tactical next steps, but it is pertinent here to first consider two positive enforcers of stability in Afghanistan and whether these are sustainable. One, due to the U.S. military engagement with Afghanistan for 11 years, the Afghan National Army has emerged as a respected organisation, providing legitimacy to the government and creating hope for political stability in the country. The number of Afghan soldiers and policemen has grown to about 330,000. Increasingly, the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are carrying out counter-terror operations. Steadily, they are taking over security responsibilities in 23 of 34 provinces. Their combat readiness will be at risk without U.S. air support, or without help from allies like India to provide helicopters and other logistics.
"Two, the Afghan parliament has emerged as a credible institution, with lawmakers frequently holding the government accountable. However, Afghanistan's stability is threatened by several factors, including a lack of revenue to run the government, a likely failure to hold 2014 elections on time and an inability of the Afghan security forces to sustain financially and without US air support. The U.S. military aid to Afghanistan past 2014 is vital, as the cost of sustaining the ANSF is projected at $4.1 billion a year, twice the Afghan government's annual revenue, wrote journalist Rajiv Chandrasekaran recently."
"[The Taliban Have Held Talks] But It Remains To Be Seen How It Will Impact On Government Formation In Kabul in 2014"
"Ahead of the U.S. exit, the Taliban's military strategy involves suicide bombings on key institutions, roadside bomb blasts, recruiting sympathisers in Afghan security forces, and so on. Politically, there are three levels of talks involving the militants. First, the Taliban have held talks with U.S. officials in recent years which they have dubbed as 'contacts' aimed at prisoner exchange, as a U.S. soldier is in their captivity. Last year, when the Taliban opened an office in Qatar after the U.S. released their prisoners from Guantanamo, they noted that they are in a pre-negotiations stage with the U.S., not negotiating the political future of Afghanistan.
"Second, the Taliban sent two envoys last month to Chantilly, France, to hold talks with representatives of Afghan government and Hizb-e-Islami. In Chantilly, they made clear that they would not accept the current Afghan constitution for a political settlement.
"Third, several contacts involving Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Taliban took place recently. Afghanistan's High Peace Council, tasked to hold talks with militant groups, visited Islamabad on November 14 and a week later Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani was in Kabul to ink a border security pact. Soon, Afghan foreign minister Zalmai Rassoul arrived in Islamabad to talk to his Pakistani counterpart Hina Rabbani Khar, who subsequently flew to Brussels to meet U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. This flurry of talks within a month and Pakistan's release of top Taliban prisoners point to a new understanding involving Pakistan and the Taliban, but it remains to be seen how it will impact on government formation in Kabul in 2014. At present, these talks appear to be tactical moves by the Taliban."
"Afghan Taliban Could Be Seen Triumphant In 2014"; "The Taliban Also Plan To Broaden Their Jihadi Battlefield… To Kashmir and India"
"At the end of Karzai's January 8-11 visit, President Barack Obama announced that by March the U.S. will begin taking up a 'support role' as the Afghan forces assume operational lead, but he did not declare the size of troops past 2014. If the U.S. decides to keep only 2,500 troops in Afghanistan, it can secure just a few military bases, possibly at Bagram and Kandahar, leaving a vast swath of southern and south-eastern Afghanistan unprotected. In this region, the Taliban have a strong presence, and their ability to survive as a guerrilla terrorist force in the mountainous terrain will remain unchallenged through the next decade.
"The Afghan Taliban could be seen triumphant in 2014 and will certainly be aided by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Al-Qaeda, and by Pakistan as an Indian soldier's killing recently on the Line of Control in Kashmir indicates. The Taliban also plan to broaden their jihadi battlefield from Afghanistan through Pakistan to Kashmir and India, as stated by TTP commander Waliur Rehman in a January 6 video, an objective that the Pakistani intelligence shares. TTP emir Hakimullah Mehsud, speaking alongside Waliur Rehman, warned that the TTP is an international organisation and offered support to militant groups in Arab countries. Mullah Omar is the leader not only of Afghan Taliban but also of Al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban, Mehsud stated, warning that after 2014 Omar's policies will define their jihadi objectives."
[1] The New Indian Express (India), January 17, 2013. The original English of the article has been lightly edited for standardization and clarity.
