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March 29, 2011 Special Dispatch No. 3712

Indian Commentators on Middle Eastern Uprisings: 'Iran Loves the Thought of a Completely Shi'a Gulf'; 'The Current Situation in the Arab World Might Prove a Background for Change [Worldwide]'

March 29, 2011
India | Special Dispatch No. 3712


In India's Hyderabad city, members of the Students Organization of India, the student wing of Jamaat-e-Islami Hind, express support for Libyan protesters on February 26, 2011

In recent columns in Indian newspapers, columnists have given a mixed verdict on the popular uprisings in the Middle Eastern countries, noting that while these revolts may result in some changes, they might not translate into a shift towards democracy. In a column titled "Gulf: Rising Shi'as, Uneasy Sunnis," renowned Indian columnist and author Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar observed that the "popular revolts in the Gulf nations may or may not evolve into democracy, but will certainly evolve into Shi'a-cracy."

Aiyar noted: "Some analysts hope for a peaceful transition from autocracy to democracy in the Middle East. Muslim autocrats have sometimes evolved into leaders of political parties in democracies. Two examples are Gen. Zia-ur Rahman in Bangladesh and Gen. Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan. It is just possible that some such transition could occur in North Africa too. But this will be impossible in the Gulf, since any political party formed by the Sunni rulers will be thrashed by Shi'a rivals."

In a column in the Urdu-language Indian daily Roznama Inquilab, Asim Jalal argued that the uprisings in the Middle East may herald a change in policy-making in favor of the poor. In an article titled "The Situation in the Arab World May Herald a Change In the World Scenario," Jalal wrote that the uprisings in the Middle East emerged because of poverty and increasing prices, and that there is a lesson in it for all other countries, including India, to frame their policies so as to meet the needs of the poor.

Jalal noted: "It is better for the rulers of other countries to bring reform, keeping in view public welfare, instead of remaining mute spectators to what is happening in the Arab world." He added: "In this way, these protests will not necessarily remain confined to the Arab world alone. They might affect the people of other Asian, African and European countries also."

Following are excerpts from Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar's column,[1] and from Asim Jalal's column: [2]

Aiyar: "The Saudis Are Paranoid Because All Their Oil Lies in the Shi'a-Majority Eastern Region"

"Indians are rightly excited by the jasmine revolution that has overthrown autocracies in Tunisia and Egypt, and that may oust Mu'ammar Gadhafi in Libya too… However, there is one huge difference between North Africa and the Persian Gulf. Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are all Sunni-majority states ruled by Sunni autocrats. But it may surprise readers to learn that the Persian Gulf coast is entirely a Shi'a-majority area, much of which is ruled by Sunni autocrats. Hence popular revolts in the Gulf nations may or may not evolve into democracy, but will certainly evolve into Shi'a-cracy. This terrifies the Sunni rulers.

"Arabs hate the term 'Persian Gulf' and call that body of water the 'Arabian Gulf.' Yet the most appropriate name may be 'Shi'a Gulf.' The Shi'as in the north coast of the Gulf are Persian and those in the west and southern coasts are Arab, but all are Shi'a regardless.

"Iran and Iraq are Shi'a-majority countries where Shi'as are in power. But in other Gulf countries, the Shi'a majority is ruled by Sunni sheikhs – in Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Even the Gulf coast of Saudi Arabia (which produces and exports most of its oil) has a Shi'a majority, although the country overall has a Sunni majority. The Saudi king has one big advantage over other Sunni rulers of the region: he is revered by all Muslims, Shi'a or Sunni, as the guardian of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina. This makes Saudi Arabia less vulnerable to a popular Shi'a revolt than Bahrain (where demonstrators are already choking the streets), Kuwait or the UAE. Yet the Saudis are paranoid because all their oil lies in the Shi'a-majority eastern region.

"This is why the Saudi king has just announced that he will spend a whopping $11 billion on improving welfare and housing in the Shi'a-majority region. He wants to buy off potential revolutionaries. Whether he will succeed remains to be seen: Bahrain's Shi'a demonstrators have refused to be bought off with grants of $2,250 per head."

"[The Suni Rulers'] Real Fear Is That a Rising Iran Will Induce Their Own Shi'a Subjects to Revolt and Demand Democracy"

"Some months ago, the WikiLeaks of U.S. confidential diplomatic papers revealed that many Gulf sheikhdoms – including Bahrain and the UAE – wanted the U.S. to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. The sheikhs claimed they feared armed invasion or bombing by Iran. In fact, their real fear is that a rising Iran will induce their own Shi'a subjects to revolt and demand democracy. The Sunni sheikhs have long cultivated the U.S. to keep Iran at bay. But this simply induces disgust on the part of many Shi'a subjects, who view their rulers as not just Sunni oppressors but as American stooges too.

"Bahrain is a small island off the Saudi Gulf coast, linked to it by a motorable causeway. Whereas Saudi Arabia is an ultra-conservative Muslim state where women must wear burqas and are not even allowed to drive cars, Bahrain is a freewheeling, Westernized state where women can wear short skirts and dance all night in nightclubs. It has an elected lower house, but real power vests with the king. The democracy movement in Bahrain started off as a secular one, yet inevitably became colored by the Shi'a-Sunni split.

"Some analysts hope for a peaceful transition from autocracy to democracy in the Middle East. Muslim autocrats have sometimes evolved into leaders of political parties in democracies. Two examples are Gen. Zia-ur Rahman in Bangladesh and Gen. Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan. It is just possible that some such transition could occur in North Africa too. But this will be impossible in the Gulf, since any political party formed by the Sunni rulers will be thrashed by Shi'a rivals. Hence Gulf sheikhdoms are more likely to opt for the Gadhafi path of bloody suppression than the Mubarak path of exiting in favor of democracy.

"This creates a moral and financial dilemma for the U.S. It swears in theory by democracy, but in practice dreads the replacement of Sunni sheikhs by Shi'a-cracies in the Gulf…"

"Iran loves the thought of a completely Shi'a Gulf. But it also fears that its own theocracy could be toppled by a democracy movement, and that tempers its enthusiasm for the jasmine revolution. When democracy seems inconvenient to so many powerful forces, its prospects in the Gulf cannot be too bright. Its prospects in North Africa are much brighter."

Jalal: "Demonstrations and Protests Are Becoming a Common Phenomenon in the Middle East"

"The lava that existed in the hearts of Arabs with a sense of honor seems to have been taking the shape of a volcanic eruption. No one had visualized the grave situation that emerged after a man in Tunisia committed suicide due to poverty. On the one hand, it proved to be the spark of a revolution in Tunisia which forced President Zine El Abidine to take flight, along with his entire family; on the other, it created a wave of protest in all Arab countries…"

"Israel, which considers itself the superpower of the region, and whose claim is based on fact if taken on materialistic grounds, also fears people's power. It fears that if this protest spreads to other countries, it will impact Israel as well, for one of the causes of the grief and rage in the Arabs against their rulers is the criminal connivance on the Palestinian issue and unreasonable support for America by the Arab rulers. That is why America is also afraid. The present rulers of the Arab countries are American slaves…"

"The Tunisians have given the clear message to the Arabs that change is possible, but that it requires struggle and that common people can play an important role in it. That is why sit-ins, demonstrations and protests are becoming common in the Middle East.

"In Saudi Arabia, the people's raising of the slogan 'Allah-u-Akbar' [Allah is Great] following the Friday prayer in Jeddah against the government is also very significant, in the wake of continuing protests in other Arab countries. The people of Saudi Arabia expressed their unhappiness over the government measures taken after the heavy rain and floods in the country. It is a fact that the Arab rulers had surmised the threat when situation in Tunisia was taking a serious turn, and they took many steps to avoid any possible protest."

"In This Way, These Protests Will Not Necessarily Remain Confined To the Arab World Alone – They Might Affect the People of Other Asian, African and European Countries Also"

"Jordan announced an increase in the salaries of the government servants, and the opposition was allowed to speak out against the government on TV channels while police dealt with the protestors with water... instead of using force.

"The rulers in Kuwait announced gifts for all citizens, which come to more than US$5,000 per head. Every citizen has been promised 1,000 Kuwaiti Dinar for 14 months, along with free basic comestibles. The government enumerated many reasons for this gift, among them the upcoming golden jubilee of Kuwaiti independence, the 20th anniversary of the freedom from Iraqi occupation, and the fifth anniversary of the Emir's rule – but the fact is that the government has taken this step to keep its people from protesting.

"Apart from this view, if these protests are analyzed from an economic viewpoint, the common factor behind them is the insincerity of the governments towards rising prices, corruption and public interest. There is no denying that steep price increases in essential commodities in the past few years has affected the upper middle class, let alone the middle and the poor of the world around the globe. Instead of taking steps against the price hikes, the governments appropriate the increase… [in profits], disgusting the people even more. It is a universal phenomenon that when people's patience breaks, it blows away the great like grass and straw. In this way, these protests will not necessarily remain confined to the Arab world alone – they might affect the people of other Asian, African and European countries also.

"In Tunisia, the suicide of a person due to poverty resulted in a coup, while people in various countries, including India, are dying of hunger – and in some places, an entire family commits suicide to escape rising prices. That is why it is better for the rulers of other countries to bring reform, keeping in view public welfare, instead of remaining a mute spectator to what is happening in the Arab world. They should prepare their economic policies with a view to fighting poverty rather than in the interest of the industrialists.

"Since the Tunisian revolution has proved the might of the hungry and poor people, it is obviously being felt that the current situation in the Arab world might prove a background for change in the world scenario."

Endnotes:

[1] www.blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com (India), February 27, 2011.

[2] Roznama Inquilab (India), Sunday magazine, January 30-February 5, 2011.

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