Two prominent views are being expressed in Iran regarding the future of the Middle East in the wake of the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. Circles close to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad predict that similar uprisings will take place in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Algeria, and Morocco, leading to the establishment of Islamic regimes there that will join the camp led by Iran. Other conservative circles call on the Saudi regime to adopt Iran's stance, and join it in leading the region's struggle against the West and Israel.
The following are summaries of and excerpts from articles on the subject:
Circles Close to Khamenei: More Tyrannical Rulers Will Fall
The first view, predicting similar uprisings across the Middle East, was widely expressed in Iran. For example, in a February 4, 2011 Friday sermon, Khamenei said that the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt signified an Islamic awakening inspired by the victorious Islamic Revolution in Iran.[1] Saadollah Zarei, an expert on Middle East affairs and a member of Kayhan's editorial board, said at a conference titled "From the Fall of Dictators to the Rise of a Single Nation" that, in his assessment, the Saudi king will be overthrown in a popular uprising within six months.[2] A Kayhan editorial claimed that hundreds of millions of Muslims across the Middle East wish to emulate the achievements of the Islamic Revolution, and called upon the Iranian regime to take advantage of the propitious hour and take steps to lay the foundations for Islamic rule in those countries.[3] At a conference titled "The Regional and International Ramifications of the Islamic Revolution," Khamenei's aide Yahya Rahim Safavi likewise assessed that other Arab peoples would overthrow their tyrannical regimes, in the spirit of the revolution in Egypt, which, he said, had been inspired by the Islamic Revolution in Iran.[4]
Ahmad Tavakkoli’s Website: Saudi Arabia Must Join Iran in Leading the Islamic Middle East
The second view was expressed in an article posted on the Iranian website Alef.ir, associated with conservative Majlis Member Ahmad Tavakkoli. The article called upon Saudi Arabia to quickly ally itself with Iran and adopt Iran's ideological stance, lest Turkey take its place in leading the Islamic world. It explained that Iran and Saudi Arabia were the most prominent powers in the Middle East, both in terms of their religious role and as the region's largest oil producers. Therefore, now that Iran has become a nuclear-capable country and has cancelled Israel's nuclear monopoly in the region, Saudi Arabia should join it in leading the Muslim Middle East, under Iran's military and political sponsorship, thus ensuring that the region would be run by a Persian-Arab partnership, rather than a by a Persian-Turkish one.
The following are excerpts from the article:[5]
"Saudi Arabia and Iran are the largest producers of oil among the OPEC [countries]. Establishing peace and security in the region is an essential condition for ensuring its future and economic stability. But if we agree that one day the region's oil will run out, it is essential to consider a future without oil, [especially] in light of the rapid rate of population growth [in the region]. Hence, attaining nuclear power for peaceful purposes, [an enterprise] for which Iran is the sole flag-bearer in the region, is the call of the hour and the call of the future. This makes it necessary for Iran and Saudi Arabia to draw closer, [for] they are the largest countries of the region, and each has a unique role – Iran as the emblem of Shi'ite [Islam] and Saudi Arabia as the emblem of Sunni [Islam]... The main question is: why is rapprochement between them so crucial at the present time, and what will happen if this rapprochement fails to occur?"
"Nuclear Iran... Can Provide a Proper Backing for the Lofty Goals of the Arab Nation"
"From a geopolitical perspective, Iran holds the northern coast of the Persian Gulf while Saudi Arabia holds an important section of its southern coast. [Hence], Iran and Saudi Arabia are the dominant forces on either side of the Persian Gulf. Every day, more than 17 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz – one third of the global oil consumption. All the [oil-]producing countries in the Middle East depend on the Strait of Hormuz in shipping their oil to the world markets.
"Examining the status [of Iran and Saudi Arabia], one identifies two opposite scenarios that may occur: one in which peace and quiet prevail between [the two countries], and another in which tension and disquiet prevail. This underscores the necessity for rapprochement between these two leading powers in the region...
"The emergence of a nuclear Iran is regarded as a fait accompli, and dealing with this unexpected state of affairs is one of the [most] important challenges facing the West. [Nuclear Iran] puts an end to the [nuclear] monopoly of the occupying regime [i.e., Israel] in the region, and can provide a proper backing for the lofty goals of the Arab nation...
"The reasons that necessitate rapprochement [between Iran and Saudi Arabia] in the Persian Gulf region are solid, and are much more real and compelling than the reasons that led to [the establishment of the European Union] in Europe. The most basic and important common denominator of the nations in this region is Islam... Great decisions require great leaders... The region's most pressing need is for rapprochement among the Islamic and Arab countries that will [enhance] their collective strength and [allow them to] pool their social resources in order to promote their national interests...
"Should Saudi Arabia tarry in taking the decision to join Iran, it could lose this coveted role to [our] Turkish friends."
Endnotes:
[1] IRNA (Iran), February 4, 2011.
[2] Fars (Iran), February 1, 2011.
[3] Kayhan (Iran), January 31, 2011.
[4] ILNA (Iran), February 2, 2011.
[5] Alef.ir (Iran), January 31, 2011.
