Al-Qaeda and related groups have launched a campaign of threats against Germany in the lead-up to the German parliamentary elections being held today, September 27, 2009. This concentration of coordinated messages is highly unusual. One of the messages was distributed through a jihadi media group with connections to the Uzbek Islamic Jihad Union, which has been tied to attempted attacks in Germany in the past. For these reasons the threats against Germany should be taken seriously.
The heart of this campaign is a group of three videos released in the last ten days. The first was a video by Bekkay Harrach, aka Abu Talha. This individual is a German of Moroccan extraction who has appeared in German-language jihadist propaganda over the last year. His message is simple: The only problem Al-Qaeda has with Germany is its participation in the war in Afghanistan. Either the voters elect a government that will withdraw its troops, or Germany will become a target. He specifically tells German Muslims that if the elections do not bring a change in policy toward Afghanistan they should stay out of public spaces in the two weeks following the elections. At one point he mentions the Oktoberfest, which may be a hint at a prospective target. [1] (Germany has now banned flights over Munich during the Oktoberfest.) [2] Al-Qaeda's feature-length video for the eighth anniversary of 9/11, which was released several days later, contained a reference to Abu Talha's warning. [3]
Bekkay Harrach, aka Abu Talha
The second step in the campaign was Osama Bin Laden's audio recording "Message to the European Peoples." The text of the message did not single out Germany, but it was distributed in a version with German subtitles (in addition to one with the more standard English subtitles), and in the context of the larger campaign should be seen as a warning to Germany. Bin Laden's message focused on the theme that America is an unreliable ally for Europe, pointing out the U.S.'s inability to restore Georgian sovereignty over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In a possible reference to the recent shift of political winds in the U.S., Bin Laden asserts that the Americans will be leaving Afghanistan, and then "just we and you [the Europeans] will remain, for the oppressed to retaliate from his oppressor." [4]
Apart from its explicit message, this video may contain a code phrase. Bin Laden says that when children are killed by air strikes in Afghanistan, "American generosity gushes forth in all its abundance and they give the victims' relatives $100 for every child killed. This is the painful fact; and is there to be found in Europe a ram for $100? This is the value of the life of our innocent children in the eyes of Washington and its allies, so what do you expect our reaction to be?"
On July 17, 2009, the Turkish jihadi media group Elifmedya posted a fundraising appeal on the Sehadet Zamani website. Both Elifmedya and Sehadet Zamani appear to be connected to the Uzbek Islamic Jihad Union, [5] which has been tied to the foiled 2006 terror plot in Saarland, Germany. An IJU commander was recently shown in a video together with Al-Qaeda commander Abu Yahya Al-Libi. [6] In the fundraising message, Elifmedya asked readers to send $100 to buy an akika sacrifice for the orphans of mujahideen in Afghanistan. (The akika is an animal that is sacrificed seven days after a child is born.) [7] The common elements to Bin Laden's message and the fundraising appeal are children in Afghanistan and an animal that costs $100.
The reason why this appears relevant is that the third video relating to Germany was produced by this same Elifmedya. The Elifmedya video shows footage of six individuals whom it claims are "German Taliban" performing military drills. (It also shows one individual whom it calls "Abu Ibrahim the American.") The rest of the video is a message from the German-speaking "Ayyub," who is apparently one of these six.
The "German Taliban" could easily be a reference to German members of the Uzbek Islamic Jihad Union, which enjoys Taliban patronage. Notably, one of Ayyub's complaints against Germany is its ties to Uzbekistan (where Germany has a military base) and the fact that it allowed the Uzbek Interior Minister Zakirjon Almatov to receive medical treatment in Hanover, despite the fact that Almatov was subject to an EU travel ban for his role in the massacre in Andijan earlier that year. [8]
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Ayyub, like the spokesmen in the other videos, faults Germany for its role in Afghanistan and says that despite its mission supposedly being peacekeeping, it is terrorizing the civilian population; he singles out the recent incident of the air strike on the stolen oil tankers in Kunduz as an example. He tells the Germans to pay heed, that their borders are not secure, and that it is just a matter of time before the jihad comes to Germany. As he is saying these words images of German landmarks appear in the upper-right corner of the screen; these include the Brandenburg Gate, the Frankfurt skyline, the Oktoberfest grounds in Munich, Hamburg Central Station, and Cologne Cathedral.
"Ayyub" in the "German Taliban" video
Written Warnings
The lead article in the latest edition of Tala'i Khurasan magazine was titled "The Germans and the Good Opportunity." Tala'i Khurasan is the jihadist print publication most closely associated with Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The current issue is for the month of Sha'ban 1430, which is the month before Ramadan, but it was only released on September 26.
The subheading for the short article asks: "Will the Germans take advantage of the last opportunity and keep from themselves destruction and ruin?" The article says that a few weeks are left before the elections in Germany, and that the Germans will have a chance to separate themselves from the Bush/Obama war policy and say to Chancellor Merkel: "Enough of your deceit in claiming that the German soldiers in Afghanistan are protecting Germany's security." It points out that according to opinion polls the majority of Germans are opposed to their country's participation in the war in Afghanistan. The article ends with a threat: "The mujahideen have long explained that peoples cannot choose, elect, and support oppressive, aggressor governments, and then hope to have their well-being and rest remain unaffected and not have to assume the cost and the consequences of this choice."
On September 27, the day of the German elections, a moderator of the Al-Falluja jihadist forum wrote a post saying that "the mujahideen's attack is coming, oh Germany" and telling the Germans to "prepare the hospitals." [9] The post was promoted with a banner on the website's home page. While little can be known about the identity of forum moderators, Al-Falluja is currently the most important active jihadist web forum and the only one with a direct line to Al-Qaeda's media distribution company, Al-Fajr.
Endnotes:
[1] http://www.memrijttm.org/content/en/blog_personal.htm?id=1954¶m=APT, September 24, 2009.
[2] http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/09/26/ap/europe/main5343040.shtml, September 26, 2009.
[3] http://www.memrijttm.org/content/en/report.htm?report=3635¶m=APT, September 23, 2009.
[4] Osama Bin Laden in Audio Message 'To the People of Europe', September 25, 2009.
[5] Cf. Einar Wigen, "Islamic Jihad Union: al-Qaida's Key to the Turkic World?" Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI), 2009; p. 31.
[6] http://www.memrijttm.org/content/en/blog_personal.htm?id=1253¶m=GJN, June 4, 2009.
[7] http://www.memrijttm.org/content/en/blog_personal.htm?id=1685¶m=GJN, August 6, 2009; http://www.sehadetzamani.com/haber_detay.php?haber_id=2179.
[8] Cf. http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=3807, November 24, 2005.
