Introduction
In recent weeks, spokesmen for the Iranian regime, both political and military, have escalated their statements, apparently out of fear of a military attack on Iran. Tension in the region spiked following the publication of the May 2008 IAEA report, which expressed "deep concern" over the apparently military characteristics of Iran's nuclear program,[1] and following the third wave of sanctions on Iran. Additional factors escalating the tension were Iran's refusal to freeze uranium enrichment for six weeks during the nuclear negotiations as demanded by the 5+1, and Iran's comprehensive "Great Prophet III" naval and ground maneuvers, as well as maneuvers by the U.S., in the Gulf. According to Iranian reports, nine mid-range and long-range ballistic missiles, including upgraded Shihab 3 missiles, were tested during the maneuvers.[2]
The threats voiced by Iranian leaders and military commanders ranged from closing the Strait of Hormuz, thereby causing oil prices to spike to "unforeseeable heights," to attacking U.S. targets in the region, including in the Persian Gulf states, as well as U.S. interests worldwide and targets in Israel. Iran also threatened to employ "revolutionary Muslim" fighters in South Lebanon in a direct clash with the U.S.
Following are excerpts from threats by Iranian political and military figures.
Threats by Political Leadership and Officials
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Iran Will "Chop Off the Hands of the Attackers before They Can Attack"
In a speech at the conference of the Eight Islamic Developing Countries (D-8) in Malaysia, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Iran would "chop off the hands of the attackers before they could attack." He added that Iran attached no importance to threats or pressures, that nobody would dare to attack Iran's "sacred soil" today, and that only U.S. President George Bush still harbored such plans. Ahmadinejad stated further that America's hegemony was collapsing, and that the world should prepare for "a future that is free of the bullying powers"[3]
Ahmadinejad advisor Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi said in a July 5, 2008 interview with The Washington Post: "The forces of any government that attacks Iran will no longer have any security in our region or anywhere else. They will no longer be safe, wherever they are."[4]
Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki: Iran's Response Will Be Devastating
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki stated that Iran's response to a U.S. and Israeli attack would be "devastating."[5] On another occasion, he said that there could be no fate for the usurping Zionist regime other than annihilation, as happened to the apartheid regime of South Africa.[6]
Iranian Oil Minister: Oil Prices Will Rise to Unforeseeable Heights
Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said at the World Petroleum Congress in Madrid that if attacked, Iran would hike oil prices "to unforeseeable heights."[7] He added that Iran's response to a military attack by the U.S. or by the "Zionist regime" would be "powerful."[8]
Ayatollah Emami-Kashani: Iran is Not a Threat
Senior cleric Ayatollah Mohammad Emami-Kashani spoke in a more conciliatory tone. He said in a July 11, 2008 Friday sermon: "...Iran is not a threat… It is ready to hold talks... To whom has [Iran] posed a threat? It is you [i.e. the U.S. or Israel] who posed a threat and translated this threat into action... Iran's [conduct] is transparent, clean and clear... We do not wish to go to war with Israel now. Iran does not plan to launch its missiles at Tel Aviv. However, it will take action if you strike and invade us."[9]
Threats by Khamenei's Representatives in the IRGC
Mojtaba Zolnour, Ayatollah Khamenei's representative in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said: "If the U.S. or Israel fires one bullet against Iran, the Iranian Armed Forces will not hesitate to strike at the heart of Israel and at the 32 U.S. military bases in the region. [This will happen] before the dust [even] settles…"[10]
On another occasion, Zolnour said: "When Iranian divers courageously carve the Iranian emblem on [the sides of] the American warships, it is a message to the Americans, [namely] that we can just as easily bomb and destroy [these warships]… When Iranian UAVs hover for hours over the American aircraft carriers, sending back images and footage, with the Americans trying to hit them [but failing] due to the compactness and maneuverability [of the UAVs], this [also] sends a message [to the Americans] – namely, that these UAVs can be loaded with explosives and [used] to destroy [the carriers]."[11]
Ali Shirazi, Khamenei's representative in the IRGC navy, said that if Iran were attacked, "Tel Aviv and the American warships in the Persian Gulf would be the first targets to go up in flames as part of Iran's crushing response." He added, "The Iranian nation is a nation… that believes in jihad and self-sacrifice, and against such a nation warships and weapons are to no avail… Today, Iran's military strength and capabilities have grown to such an extent that Iran cannot be disregarded in any regional or international balance of power." [12]
Iranian Ambassador to Kuwait: Closing Strait of Hormuz – A Last Resort
Iranian Ambassador to Kuwait Ali Jannati said that "the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be Iran's last resort, and its last option for self-defense. Iran's reaction will immediately follow any operation by Israel or by America. If Israel attacks us, we will attack it back, and if the Americans [attack us] from their bases or warships [in the region], we will strike back at these bases or warships. This will be in addition to closing the Strait of Hormuz from day one [of the attack]."[13]
Kayhan Editor and Khamenei Associate: Attack Would Jeopardize American Interests Worldwide
In a July 13, 2008 interview with the Iranian news agency Fars, Kayhan editor Hossein Shariatmadari stated: "In November 2006, the Americans presented a plan [which involved] striking specific targets in Iran. However, Khamenei's response revealed that this plan was known to him, [for] he said: 'It's not as if the Americans can launch an attack on Iran and then leave. If America attacks Iran, Iran will threaten all America's interests throughout the world.' According to Khamenei, [then,] America [will not be able to launch] a 'hit and run [attack],' but will become embroiled in a serious war."[14]
Iranian Dailies on Repercussions of Possible Attack
The Iranian daily Kayhan, which is affiliated with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, wrote in a July 12, 2008 article titled "The Iranian Maneuver Changes the [Balance] of Threats" that Iran's ballistic missile capabilities, as demonstrated in the maneuvers, place in danger all the U.S. bases and all the U.S. troops, from southern Pakistan to North Africa.
"Iran's missile[-launch] and large-scale maneuver in the Gulf demonstrated the wide range of offensive and defensive operational [capabilities that Iran has] at its disposal. [These capabilities] mean that a large area, stretching from southern Pakistan to the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, the Red Sea, and North Africa, is under threat by Iran, and this is precisely the region where most of the U.S. bases and forces are located. Therefore, before launching even the smallest operation against Iran, the Americans should consider the [safety] of their 70 bases [in this region] and of the 400,000 troops stationed therein…" The article added: "As far as Iran is concerned, Israel is dead and is not worth confronting… If a confrontation breaks out, Israel will be only one of Iran's targets." [15]
The conservative daily Jomhouri-ye Eslami, which is affiliated with the religious seminaries of Qom, warned that a U.S. attack on Iran would cause a halt to, or a considerable drop in, oil export from the Gulf region. There would be other grave results: U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan would sustain heavy losses; Israel would be dealt crushing blows by Iran and the Islamic forces in Lebanon and Palestine; U.S. interests around the world would be attacked; and a long war of attrition would be waged that would end in the defeat of the U.S. and the end of its hegemony in the world.[16]
Threats by Military Commanders
IRGC Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari: "We Believe that the Americans Are More Vulnerable than the Israelis, and the Presence of Their Forces in the Region, Not Far from Iran, is Part of This Vulnerability"; Iran's Response Will Be Devastating and Unexpected
In a June 28, 2008 interview with the daily Jam-e Jam, IRGC Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari assessed that the likelihood of a U.S. attack was high, and that "the U.S. will realize its threats [to attack Iran] if it spots an opportunity and believes that its chances of success are high."
He said: "I am not saying that an attack is certain, but it seems that [now], more than before, the enemy sees a military operation as one of the ways out of the dead end in which he finds himself… [However], since [Iran's nuclear] facilities are widely dispersed and well fortified, the enemy is not sure of the success of an attack…
"Today Iran has extensive defense capabilities within the country, and, thanks to the strategic depth provided by the Muslim world, it [also] has considerable striking power in the world [at large], and its ballistic missile capabilities are an important component of this…
"In the case of an attack on Iran, it is highly likely that a front will open against the Zionist regime in South Lebanon, because the Muslims in South Lebanon share [Iran's] beliefs and goals, and ideological solidarity exists between the Lebanese and Iranian nations. As a result, [the Lebanese will feel] a spontaneous and absolute sense of duty to confront any military action of the enemy against the Muslim world…
"The Israelis know that if they carry out some operation against Iran, they will receive deadly blows, thanks to the capabilities that exist today in the Islamic world in general and in the Shi'ite world in particular.
"The geographic location of the Zionist regime, and [Iran's] ability to strike this oppressive regime outside this regime's borders, are important factors that keep the enemy from attacking Iran. According to our strategic calculations and assessments, if the Zionist regime makes even the slightest move against our interests – alone or in cooperation with the U.S. – the entire area under Israel's control will quickly become unsafe. The Zionist regime lacks strategic depth, and [its] entire territory is entirely within the range of Iran's missiles. The missile capabilities of Iran's armed forces, and especially those of the IRGC, are such that Israel will not be able to cope with them, despite its [own] abilities…
"In Iraq, we saw that it was not [only] the Iraqis who opposed the American invasion and occupation of their country, but also some young Muslim revolutionaries from various [other] countries who came to Iraq to fight the occupiers and carry out highly important independent operations against [them].
"Iran's status and influence among the nations, and [particularly] within the Muslim world, make it very strong. The Muslim revolutionaries throughout the Muslim world (both Sunni and Shi'ite) will therefore see a U.S.-Israel attack on Iran as an attack on the [entire] Muslim world. If [Iran] is attacked, they will undoubtedly regard it as their divine duty to respond and to confront [the attackers], and this is not something that Iran can prevent. This is a matter of [religious] faith – the enemies witnessed and experienced it both during the Iran-Iraq war and during the [2003] invasion of Iraq…
"I cannot provide details about Iran's response [to an attack], but I can say that, according to our assessments, we will be able to react within a very short time. [This is] because we believe that the enemy's operation will necessarily be of very limited scope, enabling us to deal a quick, devastating, decisive, and crushing counterblow. Our response to the attack will be swift, devastating, and unexpected, and will make up for some of the damage the enemy will inflict upon us. We are making our plans based on these assumptions…
"We believe that the Americans are more vulnerable than the Israelis, and the presence of their forces in the region not far from Iran is part of this vulnerability. In addition to its missile capabilities, Iran can strike American interests in [other] ways, even ones that are far away.
"One of our reactions will be to take control of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz… If a clash occurs between Iran and an enemy from outside the region, it will involve oil. As a result of taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil will spike considerably…
"If the local and foreign enemies use the neighboring countries [to attack] Iran, we will not hold the peoples of these countries to blame, but their governments will be held responsible. It is our absolute right to retaliate against the enemy's military capabilities, no matter where they are [deployed]…
"Considering Iran's long coastline along the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and, the Strait of Hormuz, its capabilities in these crucial naval passages are so extensive that, in the case of an attack, not only the enemy but also all those who assist him will no doubt sustain [considerable] harm.
"Our ability to neutralize and crush the enemy's technological strength, as well as his aerial, electronic and intelligence superiority, is not only material [in nature]. We have the advantages of initiative and creativity, as well as troops that are endowed with both professional and tactical [abilities] and [religious] faith… Our term for this is 'asymmetrical abilities' or 'methods of fighting the enemy in [circumstances of] asymmetrical battle'…"[17]
IRGC Deputy Commander Mohammad Hejazi: "If You Want to Move against Iran,… Bring Walking Sticks and Prosthetic Legs With You, Because… You Will Not Have Legs to Return On"
IRGC Deputy Commander Mohammad Hejazi said, in similar vein, that "the era of hit-and-run is over. Potential instigators of a threat against Iran should keep in mind that this country reserves the right to determine the scale and scope of its response to any threat."
On another occasion, Hejazi said that Tehran would hold the White House and the U.S. administration responsible for any threat against Iran: "Iran's enemies should know that if they take any mistaken [steps] vis-à-vis this country, they will face its iron fist… If the enemies even think of toying with the fate of the Iranian youth, the Iranians will destroy their glass palace with their fireballs."[18]
Fars quoted Hejazi as saying: "We advise the U.S. officials to be careful and avoid another tragedy… Our last word [of warning is this]: If you want to move against Iran, make sure to bring walking sticks and prosthetic legs with you, because if you come, you will not have legs to return on."[19]
IRGC Air Force Commander Hossein Salami: Iran's Response Will Be "Swift, Decisive, and Destructive"
IRGC Air Force Commander Hossein Salami said, during Iran's military maneuvers, "We want to demonstrate to the world that [those] who are threatening the Islamic Republic [of Iran] as part of their foreign policy must be aware that our finger is constantly on the trigger, that hundreds and thousands of missiles are ready to be fired at predefined targets, and that we will pursue the enemies in the sky and on the ground."[20] He added that missiles had been loaded into launchers and were ready to fire at enemies at any time,[21] and that Iran's reaction to the threats of the enemies would be "swift, decisive, and destructive." He pointed out that the maneuvers demonstrated only a small part of Iran's capabilities, and that its enemies should know that they are "under [Iran's] magnifying glass, wherever they are." [22]
Iranian Chief of Staff Hassan Firouzabadi: If Attacked, "We Will Not Let a Single Vessel Pass Through the Strait of Hormuz"
In an interview with the official Iranian news agency IRNA, Iranian Army Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi said that if Iran's interests were in danger, it would defend itself with all means at its disposal, including closing the Strait of Hormuz: "If the country's interests are jeopardized… we will not let a single vessel pass through the Strait."[23]
IRGC Commanders Morteza Saffari and Mahmoud Chaharbaghi: We Have Missiles, Cluster Bombs and State-of-the-Art Smart Ammunition
IRGC Navy commander Morteza Saffari said during the maneuvers, "Large numbers of Iranian missiles and navy units are ready to engage in an operation in the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf."[24]
IRGC Commander of Artillery and Missile Units Mahmoud Chaharbaghi told Fars that IRGC forces were in the process of arming with "state-of-the-art smart ammunition" and with "cluster bombs capable of hitting small moving targets." He added that the IRGC had begun to operate independent missile and artillery units across Iran, in addition to the artillery units of regiments deployed in the various provinces, equipped with Fajr 3 and Fajr 4 missile launchers and Zilzal missiles with a range of 150 km. He added that 50 units were already armed with heavy cannon and Katyusha rockets, to be used if Iran is attacked.[25]
Army Official Mir-Faisal Bagherzadeh: We Are Preparing Graves for Enemy Soldiers
The head of the Iranian Army's Committee for Searching for the Missing, Mir-Faisal Bagherzadeh, declared that Iran was preparing 320,000 graves for the enemy soldiers who would die in an attack on Iran.[26]
IRGC Official: The Iranian Forces Are Ready to Sacrifice Themselves in the Persian Gulf
As part of the reorganization of the IRGC, a new unit formed in Hormozgan Province in the south of the country was tasked with monitoring foreign forces in the Persian Gulf. IRGC official Khalil Rastegar stated that "the IRGC, the army, and the Basij are standing side by side by the blue waters of the Persian Gulf, and are ready to sacrifice themselves in defense of the values and goals of the Islamic Revolution."[27]
*Y. Mansharof is a MEMRI Research Fellow; A. Savyon is Director of MEMRI's Iranian Media Project
Endnotes:
[1] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), May 28, 2008.
[2] The test launch, conducted July 9, 2008 as part of the maneuvers, included the improved Shihab-3 missile, capable of carrying a warhead of up to 1,000 kg. With its 2,000-km range, the missile can hit Israel as well as U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf. According to the Iranian news agency Fars, Iranian experts had successfully armed it with a cluster-bomb warhead. It was also reported that the missile could be redirected in midflight, or destroyed in the air if the course correction failed. The test launch also included the Zilzal and the Fath missiles. Fars, IRNA, Press TV, Tabnak (Iran), July 9, 2008.
[3] IRNA, Press TV (Iran), July 8, 2008.
[4] The Washington Post (U.S.), July 5, 2008.
[5] IRNA (Iran), July 12, 2008.
[6] Tehran Times (Iran), July 13, 2008.
[7] Fars (Iran), July 5, 2008.
[8] IRNA (Iran), July 2, 2008.
[9] IRNA (Iran), July 11, 2008.
[10] Press TV (Iran), July 12, 2008.
[11] Fars (Iran), July 15, 2008.
[12] Fars (Iran), July 8, 2008.
[13] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), July 7, 2008.
[14] Fars (Iran), July 13, 2008.
[15] Kayhan (Iran), July 12, 2008.
[16] Jomhouri-ye Eslami (Iran), June 22, 2008.
[17] Jam-e Jam (Iran), June 28, 2008.
[18] IRNA (Iran), June 30, 2008.
[19] Fars (Iran), June 25, 2008.
[20] Tabnak (Iran), July 9, 2008.
[21] IRNA (Iran), July 9, 2008.
[22] Tabnak, IRNA (Iran), July 9, 2008.
[23] IRNA (Iran), July 5, 2008.
[24] Press TV, Fars (Iran), July 9, 2008.
[25] Fars; Press TV (Iran), July 7, 2008.
[26] Fars (Iran), June 29, 2008.
[27] Mehr, Etemad (Iran), July 14, 2008.
